Is it worth keeping my reservation?

[MEDICALJMP]

It took 1 year to build the Empire State Building, during the depression. 100 stories straight up. Steel beams riveted in place. Just a little tidbit to stir the pot.

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[Ehninger1212]

It took 1 year to build the Empire State Building, during the depression. 100 stories straight up. Steel beams riveted in place. Just a little tidbit to stir the pot.

410 days start to finish, cheap exploited labor and 5 people killed. Hardly impressive.

 

[egandalf]

Edit: "First dry in" could mean pretty much any small section of the building, I doubt they mean all of the "Phase 1" building. That would be insane.

I think this is the major point. I know we're all eager for this to mean "Walls up on the CT factory!" but that's clearly not been stated.

Like everyone else, I'm very hopeful that the CT deliveries start next year. At the same time, I keep attempting (often failing) to temper that hope with the realism that this is a big job they're taking on and there's a good chance that deliveries won't happen.

My construction experience is limited to a few houses, but when I watch the pace in the videos, I'm amazed at the progress. I suspect deliveries will happen Q1 2022 at the latest.

FWIW, I didn't read any insult into your earlier post. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[egandalf]

Get something SUPER cheap to hold you over.

I completely agree with this. I currently drive a 2010 Toyota Tacoma with >100,000 miles. Runs like a champ and gets ~19mpg (Toyota trucks are notoriously inefficient, but run FOREVER). Wonderful vehicle for jaunts around town and the occasional weekend-warrior haul.

When I was researching selling mine in order to help pay for the CT, I found trucks like mine sell in my area for around $15k. Obviously, older or higher mileage = cheaper vehicle. A Toyota with 100k miles still has a lot of life left in it.

 

[Ehninger1212]

FWIW, I didn't read any insult into your earlier post. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Idk, apparently the person I was responding to did.
" So I have to shoot the insult back at you"

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Well.. I can say I deal with construction and construction administration often. Overseeing the buildings I and my team design get constructed. I can tell you that the pace they are going at is more rapid than what many in the industry consider to be "quick". I have seen much smaller buildings be completed within 7-11 months and that is considered quick. we are talking 30-50 thousand square foot projects. Not nearly the same scale.

So yeah I don't have a "Metric" comparison to give you. Also not trying to throw around insults. We do work in the bay area, California in general, so I can promise EVERYTHING THERE IS SLOW HAHA. We have been starring at basically site work since they started. Which has been extensive and is usually pretty lackluster to look at.

Edit: "First dry in" could mean pretty much any small section of the building, I doubt they mean all of the "Phase 1" building. That would be insane.

I assumed that first dry in would be some small section of one building but it would have to be a functionally-significant size or they would be laughed at by the whole world. So walls and a roof on, say, 50,000 square feet? That would only amount to about 225 feet on a side and they are almost there in their current structure (5 sections at 40 feet per section), but it would require a full roof and walls, right? I am just saying that I cannot even see that happening this month. Anyway, we'll see what they have done in 30 days...

I am not in the construction trade, I just love watching all the stages of construction. I do believe that the terraforming at giga Austin has gone at a great pace. It has been the concrete work that got off to a slow start and is now doing well, and the steel work is very slow.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I assumed that first dry in would be some small section of one building but it would have to be a functionally-significant size or they would be laughed at by the whole world. So walls and a roof on, say, 50,000 square feet? That would only amount to about 225 feet on a side and they are almost there in their current structure (5 sections at 40 feet per section), but it would require a full roof and walls, right? I am just saying that I cannot even see that happening this month. Anyway, we'll see what they have done in 30 days...

I am not in the construction trade, I just love watching all the stages of construction. I do believe that the terraforming at giga Austin has gone at a great pace. It has been the concrete work that got off to a slow start and is now doing well, and the steel work is very slow.

I can see it happening, As long as they have no weather delays. Yes dry in just mean the space keeps the elements out. There is a large amount of work that goes after that.

 

[VI Tesla]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

FYI, Tesla's been reaching out to CT reservation owners to start a lease on another Telsa, maybe worth looking into? Perhaps you can swing some sort of deal?

 

[Crissa]

Also, building works semi-geometricly. You put in a few, train those guys. But then those guys can train those guys. So the first day you do one hole or beam, then two, then four, then eight... You aren't just putting that one-a-day thing. Any time there are repeating tasks, workers slowly get better at them, too. But they can also train other workers, managers don't have to focus on the micro bits and can move on.

So that steel we're seeing today is establishing a pattern. Like those tall columns in the south end. First there was one. Then two. Then eight. Boom.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Also, building works semi-geometricly. You put in a few, train those guys. But then those guys can train those guys. So the first day you do one hole or beam, then two, then four, then eight... You aren't just putting that one-a-day thing. Any time there are repeating tasks, workers slowly get better at them, too. But they can also train other workers, managers don't have to focus on the micro bits and can move on.

So that steel we're seeing today is establishing a pattern. Like those tall columns in the south end. First there was one. Then two. Then eight. Boom.

-Crissa

I would certainly buy into that idea if it weren’t for the fact that they have had some skeletal structure up for over a month. If they are training each other they suck at training. Getting 3 sections up was big because then they could work at both ends, but they had 3 sections up a couple weeks ago and are only just now starting to work both ends. Like I said before, I am hopeful but I am no longer confident.

 

[BenH]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

If you not need your $100 deposit urgently, absolutely yes.

 

[Mike Hickey]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

Keep your reservation. You'll be able to resell your truck at a premium.
"Johnny come lately" will have to pay to play before 2025, when today's reservations will be fulfilled.

 

[Riptide]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

Interim solution - buy a first generation used Mercedes ML, 1998 - 2005. You can pick one up in decent condition for $1,500 - $4,000. Pretty dang reliable. You can then sell it for about what you paid for it in a couple of years.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Interim solution - buy a first generation used Mercedes ML, 1998 - 2005. You can pick one up in decent condition for $1,500 - $4,000. Pretty dang reliable. You can then sell it for about what you paid for it in a couple of years.

Really? I wouldn't put a dime into an ICE car right now, especially with many countries and states talking about outlawing the sale of new ICE cars in the next 10-15 years and many municipalities outlawing them in major cities. I am dumping my hybrid onto the used market as soon as my CT is available or sooner if need be. Maybe I am just paranoid.

 

[Cyber_Dav]

Maybe I am just paranoid.

Not paranoid, but definitely stressing about a non-issue.

When new car sales are (a goal, not a law) no longer for sale in California, there will still be a strong used ICE car market for another 10 or 15 years. The discussion was about a two year time frame... worrying now about 30 years from now is premature.