Is it worth keeping my reservation?

[CyborgTrk]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

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[Revelation]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

You are not getting your Cybertruck in 2021. Based on your RN number you are somewhere around the 780k mark. You maybe able to get it, depending on region and cancellations, sometime in mid-2023.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

Are you worried about your current vehicle lasting? What is the reason for NEEDING it late 2021

 

[CyborgTrk]

You are not getting your Cybertruck in 2021. Based on your RN number you are somewhere around the 780k mark. You maybe able to get it, depending on region and cancellations, sometime in mid-2023.

Thank you!! Appreciate that. I figured I was suuuuper late.

 

[CyborgTrk]

Are you worried about your current vehicle lasting? What is the reason for NEEDING it late 2021

I just moved from NYC to Jersey and still work in NYC. Whenever I’m in Jersey to run errands or grocery shop it’s in an Uber. Obviously in NYC I never needed to drive so it was never a pressing issue.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I just moved from NYC to Jersey and still work in NYC. Whenever I’m in Jersey to run errands or grocery shop it’s in an Uber. Obviously in NYC I never needed to drive so it was never a pressing issue.

Ah I see.. well a few suggestions then.. One hack it out as long as you can. Two, Maybe invest in an electric bicycle with some cargo carrying ability? Three.. Get something SUPER cheap to hold you over. I bought something affordable and SUPER good on gas to hold me over till the CT.. But mine shows me getting it early 2022. I had to be smart that I wasn't just throwing away money in the mean time so definitely don't look at anything new.

 

[alan auerbach]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

You could ask at local service centers if you could get a (perhaps used) other Tesla until your CT arrives. (The "get" might be a purchase-to-become-a-trade-in, or a lease/rental, or who knows.)

 

[CyborgTrk]

Ah I see.. well a few suggestions then.. One hack it out as long as you can. Two, Maybe invest in an electric bicycle with some cargo carrying ability? Three.. Get something SUPER cheap to hold you over. I bought something affordable and SUPER good on gas to hold me over till the CT.. But mine shows me getting it early 2022. I had to be smart that I wasn't just throwing away money in the mean time so definitely don't look at anything new.

Great idea, I’ve been wrestling with buying an old classic for weekends anyway, which should fix my craving and hold me over with all of my driving needs. While I wait for my Cybertruck. The long wait time is torturing but I personally believe the Cybertruck would prove to be an investment years to come if I just stick it out.

 

[Luke42]

I just moved from NYC to Jersey and still work in NYC. Whenever I’m in Jersey to run errands or grocery shop it’s in an Uber. Obviously in NYC I never needed to drive so it was never a pressing issue.

This situation calls for a beater car. That would be a used utilitarian machine that will support your lifestyle for 2-3 years, without costing you too much money. This machine would be just a transportation appliance which starts every morning, not some sort of grand personal statement.

I recommend a 2004+ Prius. Ours was a cockroach (unkillablle), reliable and cheap to operate. Also, Prii repel the kind of drivers who like to drive fast -- because they're so boring to drive. The Prius is a car that's great to own, but boring to actually drive. The chances are that the one you buy will have never been hooned. These could be had for well under $10k the last time I shopped for them.

If you want the full-sized truck experience with a green-ish powertrain which attenuates the annoyances of driving a big V8, a 2009-2013 GMC Sierra Hybrid or Chevy Silverado Hybrid is a decent ride. (I own one of these trucks.) I got a single-owner top-trim GMC Sierra Hybrid 4x4 in amazing shape with 90k miles on it for about $15k. The cheapest GMT900 hybrid that I found was about $11k, but it was a former Verizon truck and would have been a project-truck -- fixing it up to match my taste and my mission would have brought the total project cost well above $15k.

I got the truck because my wife insisted I buy a truck this summer, instead of waiting for the CT. She has needs, you see -- to have heavy objects moved. So, I got a used truck which fit our needs, budget, and taste. I'm pretty happy with it, and I'm confident that it will last until my CT is ready.

Of course, regular beater cars (like a heavily used Toyota/Honda sedans/CUVs) are always an option and I can't find anything bad to say about them from a maintenance/TCO perspective. As these cars age, though, they cost less to buy -- and more to maintain. There's a TCO sweet spot that's worth seeking where the car is cheapest to buy, and cheapest to maintain. Remember, you're looking for a car with 2-3 years of trouble-free driving left in it -- so a 10-year-old vehicle with 90k miles on it (with newish tires and no rust) might be just about right.

What works for you, of course, depends entirely on your situation. [shrug]

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Hi,

Question for anyone here that might be able give their opinion. My reservation number is, RN113530685 Dual Motor with FSD (reserved in June 2020). I know there is an insane number of orders and need to purchase a car in 2021. I’m willing to wait until late 2021 as long as I’m likely to get it in time.
I assume that with my reservation number my order I might not receive mine until 2022 sometime? Is it worth keeping my reservation with me needing to purchase a car in 2021?

They will only begin production (if that) at the end of 2021, so none of us will see a CT next year. I would have said something different a few months ago, but seeing how slow the contractors in Austin are I no longer see them being able to produce CTs in Austin before the end of 2021. That said, unless you desperately need the $100 back, and if you are still interested in the CT, why not hold onto the reservation? I held onto my Model Y reservation (and that was $2,500) to within a month of them starting to deliver Model Ys.

 

[Ehninger1212]

They will only begin production (if that) at the end of 2021, so none of us will see a CT next year. I would have said something different a few months ago, but seeing how slow the contractors in Austin are I no longer see them being able to produce CTs in Austin before the end of 2021. That said, unless you desperately need the $100 back, and if you are still interested in the CT, why not hold onto the reservation? I held onto my Model Y reservation (and that was $2,500) to within a month of them starting to deliver Model Ys.

Umm yeah.. construction is actually coming along very rapidly. Now 3 shifts and 24hours.. 7 Days a week. Idk what kind of construction your used to in the Bay Area lol

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Umm yeah.. construction is actually coming along very rapidly. Now 3 shifts and 24hours.. 7 Days a week. Idk what kind of construction your used to in the Bay Area lol

You are clearly not watching the progress every day, and construction in the Bay Area is incredibly slow, but no one in the Bay Area is saying that they will build a factory a mile long and a quarter mile wide and start manufacturing a completely new design and unproven methodology in 12 months either. As for the 24x7 activity, they are limiting to geopier drilling and digging pads and not much else. They have hundreds of pads now and the rate at which they add new sections to the building is very slow. So I have to shoot the insult back at you. By what metric, other than hearsay, do you consider the work to be rapid? They have on paper first dry in at the end of December. A rapid pace would mean they were ahead of schedule and should have their first dry in before the end of the month. Not a chance. None. They couldn’t dry in a single section of building in that time at their current pace. Watch the videos and decide.

 

[FutureBoy]

You are clearly not watching the progress every day, and construction in the Bay Area is incredibly slow, but no one in the Bay Area is saying that they will build a factory a mile long and a quarter mile wide and start manufacturing a completely new design and unproven methodology in 12 months either. As for the 24x7 activity, they are limiting to geopier drilling and digging pads and not much else. They have hundreds of pads now and the rate at which they add new sections to the building is very slow. So I have to shoot the insult back at you. By what metric, other than hearsay, do you consider the work to be rapid? They have on paper first dry in at the end of December. A rapid pace would mean they were ahead of schedule and should have their first dry in before the end of the month. Not a chance. None. They couldn’t dry in a single section of building in that time at their current pace. Watch the videos and decide.

Looks like another challenge to the Tesla team... We shall have to see how it plays out.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Looks like another challenge to the Tesla team... We shall have to see how it plays out.

True enough. At the end of the day everyone here is on the same side...we are all desperately waiting for Giga/Tera Austin to be built and for the CTs to roll off the line. I watch every video that comes out (and support the effort). The sad reality is that they could have ten times as many crews out there building this factory now that they have so many of the pads in. They would have to step up the deliveries and they would need more cranes but that is what it would take (based solely on the published schedule). One possible explanation is that there simply aren’t that many construction crews in the Austin area and that they cannot get the materials faster than they are. Another possible explanation is simply bad planning. This one is scary but the result may be the same.

Let’s say they add one section (3 quads and 2 levels) of that building a week like they have been, and in this one building there are maybe 200 more sections to go, and two more buildings in Phase 1? And that doesn’t include any on the complexity of the south end, the switch area, walls, foundations under the skeleton, etc. So, 200 weeks for one building of three? To complete the outer skeleton for a single building they would have to build a section just about every day. Now that they are able to move in both directions at once maybe they can double their rate but they have to triple that. They are not doing this kind of work at night. As much as I hate to say it I am having a hard time seeing more than a fraction of the Phase 1 buildings operational a year from now. Maybe that will be enough? I want to be wrong on this. Yes, nervous wait and see period. As @ajdelange might say, I want to believe in magic, but don’t.

 

[Ehninger1212]

You are clearly not watching the progress every day, and construction in the Bay Area is incredibly slow, but no one in the Bay Area is saying that they will build a factory a mile long and a quarter mile wide and start manufacturing a completely new design and unproven methodology in 12 months either. As for the 24x7 activity, they are limiting to geopier drilling and digging pads and not much else. They have hundreds of pads now and the rate at which they add new sections to the building is very slow. So I have to shoot the insult back at you. By what metric, other than hearsay, do you consider the work to be rapid? They have on paper first dry in at the end of December. A rapid pace would mean they were ahead of schedule and should have their first dry in before the end of the month. Not a chance. None. They couldn’t dry in a single section of building in that time at their current pace. Watch the videos and decide.

Well.. I can say I deal with construction and construction administration often. Overseeing the buildings I and my team design get constructed. I can tell you that the pace they are going at is more rapid than what many in the industry consider to be "quick". I have seen much smaller buildings be completed within 7-11 months and that is considered quick. we are talking 30-50 thousand square foot projects. Not nearly the same scale.

So yeah I don't have a "Metric" comparison to give you. Also not trying to throw around insults. We do work in the bay area, California in general, so I can promise EVERYTHING THERE IS SLOW HAHA. We have been starring at basically site work since they started. Which has been extensive and is usually pretty lackluster to look at.

Edit: "First dry in" could mean pretty much any small section of the building, I doubt they mean all of the "Phase 1" building. That would be insane.