What percentage of pre-orders will actually buy?

[Shumby]

So we are all looking at our place in line with our RN numbers. But really what % of people are going to actually buy it to you think?

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[PACEMD]

Well, many people placed multiple orders either because the website misfired or they were undecided on the model. Some may back out otherwise but many more have piled on so I'm guessing 25% will back out. That's just basics of how you guess unknown statistics..........to get in the ballpark..........you know, 20s, 50s, 70s..........

 

[K Doc Brown 007]

Well, many people placed multiple orders either because the website misfired or they were undecided on the model. Some may back out otherwise but many more have piled on so I'm guessing 25% will back out. That's just basics of how you guess unknown statistics..........to get in the ballpark..........you know, 20s, 50s, 70s..........

I’d agree, but give it a range... 20-33% will back out for various reasons (change of interest, multiple order, financing, life, spouse issue, etc...)

 

[Cyber_Dav]

On the other hand, will we ever know? Unless it is a very small (under 10 percent) attrition rate, I don't think Tesla will ever release the real number.

 

[Keeney]

I would imagine its more like 75% of the pre-orders will not turn into immediate orders. Refundable $100 is a very low bar. And as mentioned, many people reserved one of each configuration, or a couple for their friends.

 

[Cyber1qhorsey]

The CT is a specialty truck. I am not even sure it's feasibly street legal yet. The entry bars are cheap, but after that, In the end my decision will be determined by alot of personal choices like whether to finance it, choosing a more proven SUV vs the prototype CT, and so on. I'll likely give up the preorder (70%). I agree with Keeney's similar estimate.

 

[PACEMD]

It doesn't really matter if the final number is 25% or 75% of the initial orders that don't pan out, although it will be 25%. Either way for the first few years of production people are going to be waiting in line to actually get a Cybertruck. That's been the history of new Tesla lines and will be even more so for this truck. Other lines have not generated the same numbers of interest from non-Tesla owners. The Model 3 cranked those numbers up but the Cybertruck even more.

 

[Snuups]

Around 50 % of the reservations will be fulfilled. Some maybe very late due to waiting for the right trim and model. Others do not do reservations. They order when a CT is available. Normally I am such a person. I made a reservation to make a statement. Like 'We want CT in Europe too'.

 

[PACEMD]

Cool. Now we have 25%, 50%, and 75% guesses. We should start an office betting pool............

 

[rharl]

I will say i was a little on the fence when i made my reservation. The Cybertruck was interesting and would be my first EV. I put the 100 bucks down because why not.I have since then gotten more and more excited. I have now done more research into Tesla. I am sold. The CT is now for sure going to be mine as long as the specs and design end up close which i think they will. I am considering other EV vehicles for the future as well. It is really how much the design was led by function. How the truck was designed w manufacturing it efficiently as a primary directive. How it is going to be truly special in the history of vehicles. If this truck comes out like we think it will then for generations this vehicle will be studied as when car design and manufacturing changed. It is like Must is finishing the original ideas and legacy of John Z Delorean.
So all this means unless the truck changes from the concept i am in for sure .

 

[Zhe Wiz]

33% ?

Put me down for $100.

 

[jebinc]

I will go with 30%, as many ordered multiple configurations since they were "undecided" at the time of reveal. In two years, we will also know more about the Cybertruck, as well as Rivian and other competitor's products. These things, along with some also experiencing financial changes by then (e.g., job changes, divorce, bought a house, etc.) will drive a lower than expected conversion rate of the "original" 350,000 RNs.

 

[Bobbymoore62]

Im sold as well. The more I see the more I cannot wait to get. I have never owned an EV either. Looking forward to starting out with the best.

 

[Dids]

In my case 100% of preorder will be filled. I can't wait!

 

[Daweism]

Probably 50% will back out.

Perfectly balanced as all pre-orders should be.