Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Jackcybertruck]

Based on current situations, we would be lucky if we see anything in 2022.

even if Tesla finds a new location today, it will take at least 18 months to two years to build.
Then start production in 2022 we might be lucky to see CT's in our driveways around Dec 2022 or early 2023.

I HOPE I AM WRONG, BUT THAT IS REALITY

if anyone disagrees with me, please explain how we will see CT's on roads next year

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[MUSK007]

I - 100% agree with you

 

[ajdelange]

You don't just start building a factory and then start producing trucks when it is complete. In the time that it takes to build the factory they need to be doing extensive testing on production prototypes. Therefore, they will be building quite a few of those in the interim. There is a chance we may see some of them just as there have been sightings of the Semi. All that said I certainly don't expect to sight one in my driveway by the end of next year.

 

[MUSK007]

Why? How many Semi trucks are there? 2?

how many 2020 Roadsters? 1?

Wait.... Don’t get me started in the Roadster!

 

[Balthezor]

I really hope Musk007 is wrong, but I think we all know he is probably right.

 

[MUSK007]

I want to be wrong, please be wrong. LOL. I want to drive my new CT up the to the lake asap.

 

[Mini2nut]

I think we will be pleasantly surprised. I have been a Tesla shareholder and keep informed on Tesla by checking on news reports 2-3x a day. I have been watching them religiously for many years. Mr. Musk and Tesla are more fascinating to me than any other US company. What they are doing is truly changing the face of the fossil fuel based automotive landscape around the world. Starting Tesla was a HUGE gamble that most said would fail.

Elon‘s team knows how to get automotive assembly plants built quickly. Add in the fact that Mr. Musk is more passionate about the Cybertruck than any other Tesla Model to date. He stated that he plans to ditch his current Obsidian Model S and make the Cybertruck his personal vehicle as soon as they start rolling off the assembly lines.

Tesla hires some of the smartest people In their professions. I confident that part of current TX/Oklahoma negotiations involve break neck building permit speeds, working hours/days, city inspections, public road construction traffic, etc.

The pressure on the entire Tesla team to meet the Q4 2021 production date stated in the CT debut is very real. The last thing an employee wants to do is disappoint Mr. Musk. Especially when Tesla is investing $1 billion on a 4-5 million square foot assembly plant. Bring on the Cybertruck!

 

[MUSK007]

Wow. What part of the facts don’t you understand.

I too invested in Tesla many years ago, I too check Tesla News sources multiple times daily. I have a CT on order from day one. I own three Tesla’s. Do You?

I could be higher on Tesla, but I’m realistic too. Seems some people here are not.

 

[Bigvbear]

Optimism is nice to have but reality is usually more disappointing.

let's look at a timeline for just a sec.

it's July 2020, so to meet a rollout of the CT by end of 2021 thats less than 18 months away.

in that 18 months you have to: (an pray none are held up for any reason)

Buy the land
get approval from city, county, state and federal agencies for building permits, plan approvals, disaster plans, etc etc etc
get an EIS
Get tax breaks from all the above
make plans for building any infrastructure that may be lacking (IE Power, sewer, water, wastewater, roads, etc)

before you can even think about erecting the building.

Then you have to actually build this massive facility. Tool it, train personnel, man it, supply it, and get any production issues resolved before you can start delivery.

If you go by past experience, Tesla's Fremont plant they did not build. It was purchased already built. It was opened in October of 2010 and the first Model S was delivered in June 2012 20, months later. This was at a factory that was already in place.

bear in mind also Giga Berlin site was announced in November of 2019 and is expected to go live production in late 2021. There were many environmental issues that had to be resolved.

They were able to get the Shanghai facility up in less than a year, but China's labor, government, and environmental, laws are considerably different than here at the states.

lastly...Tesla has not formally announced where the plant will be. They did get some tax incentives from Austin, but it's location is not official and they have not bought the property either. Some other cities are trying for the plant as well.

 

[Jackcybertruck]

Optimism is nice to have but reality is usually more disappointing.

let's look at a timeline for just a sec.

it's July 2020, so to meet a rollout of the CT by end of 2021 thats less than 18 months away.

in that 18 months you have to: (an pray none are held up for any reason)

Buy the land
get approval from city, county, state and federal agencies for building permits, plan approvals, disaster plans, etc etc etc
get an EIS
Get tax breaks from all the above
make plans for building any infrastructure that may be lacking (IE Power, sewer, water, wastewater, roads, etc)

before you can even think about erecting the building.

Then you have to actually build this massive facility. Tool it, train personnel, man it, supply it, and get any production issues resolved before you can start delivery.

If you go by past experience, Tesla's Fremont plant they did not build. It was purchased already built. It was opened in October of 2010 and the first Model S was delivered in June 2012 20, months later. This was at a factory that was already in place.

bear in mind also Giga Berlin site was announced in November of 2019 and is expected to go live production in late 2021. There were many environmental issues that had to be resolved.

They were able to get the Shanghai facility up in less than a year, but China's labor, government, and environmental, laws are considerably different than here at the states.

lastly...Tesla has not formally announced where the plant will be. They did get some tax incentives from Austin, but it's location is not official and they have not bought the property either. Some other cities are trying for the plant as well.

I hate it but you are so true in all your explanations.

 

[ricinro]

most gigafactory design is probably boilerplate by now. So the time to make a factory in Texas is likely between making it in Germany and China. I notice that Tesla did not waste much time dealing with a school district. The other approvals will probably be quicker.
I think battery day will surprise us in a few ways but I suspect Roadrunner is automation to produce the automation to produce the next generation of battery (million mile- whatever). Could a similar methodology be applied to manufacturing? Could a vehicle manufacturing factory happen within a year?
Could/would Tesla build ahead of permits? They are not new to all this.

 

[MUSK007]

Ahh. Yea. Ok

 

[Mini2nut]

For those of you who have doubts about Q4, 2021 CT deliveries:

-Tesla is not rushing to choose a CT assembly plant location.
-Tesla has publicly stated that CT deliveries will start in Q4 of next year (technically that could be December 31st).

Adding those two facts together tells me that everything is right on schedule.

 

[Jackcybertruck]

For those of you who have doubts about Q4, 2021 CT deliveries:

-Tesla is not rushing to choose a CT assembly plant location.
-Tesla has publicly stated that CT deliveries will start in Q4 of next year (technically that could be December 31st).

Adding those two facts together tells me that everything is right on schedule.

ok and where do you think they will assemble it?

 

[Bigvbear]

For those of you who have doubts about Q4, 2021 CT deliveries:

-Tesla is not rushing to choose a CT assembly plant location.
-Tesla has publicly stated that CT deliveries will start in Q4 of next year (technically that could be December 31st).

Adding those two facts together tells me that everything is right on schedule.

If you go by past experience. Not 1 Tesla model, to date, has come out on the initial expected target date. They have all been delayed.