Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Ryan95738]

I wish they would expand the Gigafactory 1's parking lot and build that out for a Cybertruck area. Didn't they say that was the plan for Gigafactory 1 was to expand a bit?

I completely agree with OP, with permit approval and BS like that, no way they can finish it at 18 months. If they already started breaking ground, maybe. I think Covid really threw a curveball, they just haven't confirmed the delay yet. Sucks.

They have plans to abandon California now so things have changed.

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[Teslaman]

Scott,

DEAL!! and if you’re in the Bay Area and I win, I’ll even drive the truck down to you to collect and we’ll share a glass in the CT together! My number has me in the first few hundred and I’m here in Reno, NV.

Closer than the Bay, Kelseyville CA....somewhere around 38K, myself. Www.smilingdogsranch.com

 

[OB-ONE]

Ok, ok. We all have our opinions on when production is going to start but who’s willing to put their money where their mouth is! Lol.

In order to help keep us entertained during the next year, how about a google spreadsheet with everyone’s wager!

I’ll put up a bottle of Kentucky’s finest... A bottle of Woodford Reserve and I’ll say that production and delivery 100% starts in 2021!!

If anyone wants to offer something and take this bet, I’ll put together a spreadsheet.

Let’s have some fun!

I'm in, make it "double oaked", my favorite. Everyone is forgetting that Elon used the Covid down time to change Freemont. I'm betting he will be setting up production for pre-deliveries of CT out of Freemont and he will be ready to go in Texas by 2021 with full production. The light will go on for most people after "Battery Day", can't wait.

 

[Bigvbear]

I'm in, make it "double oaked", my favorite. Everyone is forgetting that Elon used the Covid down time to change Freemont. I'm betting he will be setting up production for pre-deliveries of CT out of Freemont and he will be ready to go in Texas by 2021 with full production. The light will go on for most people after "Battery Day", can't wait.

I doubt they will do anything CT out of the freemont plant. It has been optimized for model 3 and Y production and it does not make alot of sense to retool it for the CT. What will more likely happen is the CT will be out of a new facility or one that can be easily retooled because it will not impact current production.

 

[ricinro]

I am intrigued by the SS blanks to make a CT. Typical rolls(coils) of sheet are not too wide and it is not uncommon to see them ship by truck or train. Larger sheet width or plate? it is possible but harder to transport. I think that the CT will not be just one piece of origami but multiple pieces welded to stamped internal pieces. The laser/waterjet cutting and automated brake press forming will be done in a few machines that are likely commercially available (and already ordered). Most of the other vehicle components are similar to Tesla drive train components and interior components.

I have doubts about tents in Texas considering its weather can be less temperate than Fremont.

The building and automated battery making cells (roadrunner?) will likely be gating items to late 2021 production.

just my WAG.

https://insideevs.com/news/397899/tesla-cybertruck-analysis-explains-exoskeleton/

 

[Mini2nut]

With literally billions of $$$ in Cybertruck sales revenue waiting in the wings Tesla is incentivized to build the plant ASAP.

If the building contractor has shovels in the ground by this September I can see Cybertrucks easily rolling off the assembly lines in Q4 of 2021 and maybe even sooner. The Cybertruck is going to be awesome and I can’t wait to take delivery!

 

[MUSK007]

Hopefully the converted sales from deposits will be over 25%

I fully expect Tri Motor trim models to be coming off the line by 2023. Certainly not in 2021

 

[RonM]

Hopefully the converted sales from deposits will be over 25%

I fully expect Tri Motor trim models to be coming off the line by 2023. Certainly not in 2021

Expect the worst?, hope for the best?? I hope you are SO wrong!?

 

[MUSK007]

Again, just being realistic. It’s almost August 2020. We are in the middle of a pandemic. Tesla doesn’t have the raw land for a factory yet. They haven’t completed any plans or engineering. They haven’t completed an EIP, or any ground studies and haven’t submitted to the AHJ for any approvals. They don’t have a working factory which they need to build from the ground up. Then there’s the manufacturing equipment to be purchased and installed. They need to train a labor force on a brand new vehicle. They need to create a supply chain and have time to accumulate parts. They don’t have the battery technology yet for a 500 mile range truck. In America, the pick up truck is big. Seems everybody has one or wants one. They will need time to produce some and really test them. This is a very important vehicle to Tesla and it must be all sorted out, because truck buyers won’t stand for the poor build quality that Tesla has gotten away with with their other vehicles. Ford, Chevy and Dodge make some very nice trucks right now. The fit and finish are very very good. Tesla will have to match that because truck buyers here in the USA demand that. If your going to get the masses to buy and electric truck, it better be perfect. After all, it’s a $75,000 plus truck. It takes time to bring a new vehicle to market. So no, realistically they won’t get all this done in less than a year. Wishing and hoping won’t change that. I’m high on the list for a tri-motor and would love to have it next year, but I know that won’t happen.

 

[Mini2nut]

When the Model III was released Tesla eliminated Beta prototype testing and went straight to Alpha...


"Q on Model 3 beta prototype - essentially eliminating beta because of advanced analytical techniques and going straight to release candidate
show car -> alpha -> early release candidate
"we will be driving it in a week or 2"


Tesla Model 3

entire car built with production tooling vs beta tooling, so higher precision.
quality of release candidate way better than for S and X
body panel gaps much better
ramp rate of production could be lower if suppliers have bad luck, force majeure, etc with several thousand parts"

 

[MUSK007]

The Model 3 is not the CT.
Tesla was already building cars for years. They didn’t get to production overnight. People who bought the roadster were visionary’s. People who bought the MS and X were looking for a change and were in board with Tesla’s mission. Which is why they accepted our build quality. Most didn’t care.
Truck owners are different. They use them for work. They depend in them. To get them to change will require all the bugs sorted out first. Otherwise word will spread fast that the CT is low quality. Tesla can’t afford that and neither can we.

 

[Mini2nut]

No question that Tesla needs to step up the fit and finish quality of their automobiles. I hope Tesla does some real life validation testing before production starts up.

Instead of relying 100% on analytical techniques I think they will do some Beta testing because of it's exoskeleton design. Tesla has never manufactured such a vehicle in its short history. November 17th-22nd is the Baja 1000!

 

[MEDICALJMP]

When the Model III was released Tesla eliminated Beta prototype testing and went straight to Alpha...


"Q on Model 3 beta prototype - essentially eliminating beta because of advanced analytical techniques and going straight to release candidate
show car -> alpha -> early release candidate
"we will be driving it in a week or 2"


Tesla Model 3

entire car built with production tooling vs beta tooling, so higher precision.
quality of release candidate way better than for S and X
body panel gaps much better
ramp rate of production could be lower if suppliers have bad luck, force majeure, etc with several thousand parts"

True, but fit and finish are lacking. It needs to be right with EVs like Cybertruck hitting the mass market of finicky ICE truck buyers.

 

[MUSK007]

That’s what I’m say. I agree 100%

The new Ford trucks are perfect inside and out.

 

[Bigvbear]

No question that Tesla needs to step up the fit and finish quality of their automobiles. I hope Tesla does some real life validation testing before production starts up.

Instead of relying 100% on analytical techniques I think they will do some Beta testing because of it's exoskeleton design. Tesla has not manufactured such a vehicle in its short history.

I agree, the techniques they used for the model 3 should not be a benchmark for success. The model 3 suffered from fit and finish issues just as much as earlier models. The prototype CT also suffered from fit and finish issue (IE look at how the lines don't line up on the doors vs fenders) Tesla will be building a new factory with new tooling for new manufacturing techniques on a material not currently being used for vehicles (Stainless Steel). They can't afford to wing it here. If they want a successful product it will need some production samples prior to full production.