FSD will get $2k price increase 10/29

[Stickboy46]

Just to put a reminder out there: when EM said FSD might have a subscription model, he said it would be considered a more expensive option as compared to buying FSD outright. It's never going to be $9.99 like some of you have said, heck not even $19.99!

There has been speculation about what he said and the common theme is that it'll likely be hundreds a month on a subscription model. Think about it: if you owned an amazing software that took billions to create, would you go around saying "hey you can have those for $10k (or whatever the price then) or for $19.99/mo?" No way! You would likely price the monthly subscription at a rate that equals to the purchase price in 2-5 years.

If we factor in 5 years at the $10k price, that would be $167/mo. Just saying, don't get your hopes up over a magical "possible" subscription model being just a few bucks. This isn't Netflix we're talking about subscribing to, it's life-saving software solutions.

Anyway, it's been reiterated many times here, no risk to add FSD to your reservation now, so you'd be foolish not to. Even if you KNOW you'll never add it in the end, it's a free guarantee in the event that you decide that you would have changed your mind in the future when you're configuring your CT with a $15k price tags on FSD for example, that you would have saved $7k for risk-free guarantee.

While i agree it wont ever be 10 dollars or 20 a month, but i think it does make financial sense to make the subscription price less than the price of FSD/5years. There is a reason most major software companies are going to a subscription model.

Using an example. Let's say the "break even" for FSD is 10k/60 months = 166 a month. Let's say they set the subscription at 99 a month

Example:
Tesla Sells two cars.

Car A:
Sold 2020 with FSD
Car Price 50k
FSD Price 10k
Total Tesla Revenue = 60k

Car A is Sold to another buyer after 5 years, FSD stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Assuming they keep it for 5 years, Total Tesla Revenue over 20 years = 60k

Car B:
Sold 2020 with FSD Subscription
Car Price 50k
User Subscribes to 99/month for 60 months.
FSD Subscription Revenue = 6k
Total Tesla Revenue for first owner = 56k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User doesn't do subscription
Tesla Revenue = 0

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User subscribes for FSD.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 6k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, they only subscribe half the time.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 3k

Total Tesla revenue over 20 years = 65k.

Obviously lots of variable that can swing it either way (people might not ALWAYS subscribe to the negative, for the positive, they can potentially raise the price of FSD subscription over time as the feature set grows). I'm just saying it's not a slam dunk that it makes sense for them to price it higher than the 5 year loan split.

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[Timmo]

While i agree it wont ever be 10 dollars or 20 a month, but i think it does make financial sense to make the subscription price less than the price of FSD/5years. There is a reason most major software companies are going to a subscription model.

Using an example. Let's say the "break even" for FSD is 10k/60 months = 166 a month. Let's say they set the subscription at 99 a month

Example:
Tesla Sells two cars.

Car A:
Sold 2020 with FSD
Car Price 50k
FSD Price 10k
Total Tesla Revenue = 60k

Car A is Sold to another buyer after 5 years, FSD stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Assuming they keep it for 5 years, Total Tesla Revenue over 20 years = 60k

Car B:
Sold 2020 with FSD Subscription
Car Price 50k
User Subscribes to 99/month for 60 months.
FSD Subscription Revenue = 6k
Total Tesla Revenue for first owner = 56k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User doesn't do subscription
Tesla Revenue = 0

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User subscribes for FSD.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 6k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, they only subscribe half the time.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 3k

Total Tesla revenue over 20 years = 65k.

Obviously lots of variable that can swing it either way (people might not ALWAYS subscribe to the negative, for the positive, they can potentially raise the price of FSD subscription over time as the feature set grows). I'm just saying it's not a slam dunk that it makes sense for them to price it higher than the 5 year loan split.

I love this FSD feature . I’m glad I opted in during initial reservation for $7000 !

 

[shaneaus]

They already offer highway driving for free, and on Thursday it goes to $10K. I can see them doubling the price of full FSD before it hits general release. They already offer a midway version in enhanced autopilot for half price and I imagine that will continue. And then there is the subscription service @elonmust mentioned but even he said that would be expensive comparatively. To me the only real answer is for our purchase of the FSD 'license' to go with us. That is the only way I can feel comfortable about buying another Tesla with FSD.

Tesla is constantly changing pricing. They did (not sure if they still do) offer a cheaper/limited version of FSD. Just because they say one thing today doesn't mean that is how it will be tomorrow.

I, completely, agree with the FSD license "to go with us" part! Right now, if one purchases a Tesla and upgraded options - then, sells the Tesla - the "upgraded options" are removed when Tesla finds out the vehicle was sold!!! So, the original owner gets NOTHING in the way of resale benefit from any upgrades that were purchased. I think this includes FSD! This is a crock of SH!$ IMHO. The vehicle upgrades should remain with the vehicle once purchased. And, FSD, should be a standalone product that is purchased by the user and can be transferred from vehicle to vehicle. But, not my company/financial decision.

If they double the price for full FSD they will price out a vast majority of the US auto buyer market. For many 20k would be double the price of the vehicle! So, FSD would only be for the upper and upper middle class. I expect FSD will go the route of most software development costs for the consumer - It will be expensive at first and, as the originator recoups some measure of the development cost the price will get lower. In this case - the early adopters will pay more. A few years down the road the prices will begin to drop so more people can afford the full FSD software suite. This would, also, be in line with EM's idea of getting affordable and capable EV's down to a price to allow for mass adoption.

 

[Stickboy46]

I, completely, agree with the FSD license "to go with us" part! Right now, if one purchases a Tesla and upgraded options - then, sells the Tesla - the "upgraded options" are removed when Tesla finds out the vehicle was sold!!! So, the original owner gets NOTHING in the way of resale benefit from any upgrades that were purchased. I think this includes FSD! This is a crock of SH!$ IMHO. The vehicle upgrades should remain with the vehicle once purchased. And, FSD, should be a standalone product that is purchased by the user and can be transferred from vehicle to vehicle. But, not my company/financial decision.

I believe this is ONLY true if you trade the car back in to Tesla. They will remove it (as they can, since they own the car at that point) before reselling it. I've only see one error case where someone bought a used Tesla and the FSD was removed. Otherwise it stays with the car and you SHOULD get some additional resell value out of it. Though, from what I've seen, you don't get much extra resell and can expect zero extra trade value.

 

[T3slaDad]

Right now, if one purchases a Tesla and upgraded options - then, sells the Tesla - the "upgraded options" are removed when Tesla finds out the vehicle was sold!!!

This simply is not true. Tesla knows very well when a vehicle is sold (tons of paperwork to transfer ownership in the app, etc) and DOES NOT remove upgrades that were purchased like AP, EAP, FSD, etc.

I am the 2nd owner of an M3 with EAP purchased by the original owner. I have many friends who have also bought used Tesla with features already purchased by the original owners. I know this to be fact.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

This simply is not true. Tesla knows very well when a vehicle is sold (tons of paperwork to transfer ownership in the app, etc) and DOES NOT remove upgrades that were purchased like AP, EAP, FSD, etc.

I am the 2nd owner of an M3 with EAP purchased by the original owner. I have many friends who have also bought used Tesla with features already purchased by the original owners. I know this to be fact.

I am pretty sure you are right and I am glad that it worked out for you (and has for several of my friends as well), but it should be the seller’s choice since they paid for the FSD in the first place. I want to transfer it from my M3 to an MY. I cannot do it at the time I purchase the MY because we would have both the M3 and MY until the CT comes out and then the M3 will be sold. I would have to have it in writing that I was getting the current full value of FSD at that time, to offset the cost to put it onto one of the other cars, and it would just be easier for Tesla to allow transfer from one vehicle to another than to go through all the other hassles and upset drivers.

 

[T3slaDad]

I am pretty sure you are right and I am glad that it worked out for you (and has for several of my friends as well), but it should be the seller’s choice since they paid for the FSD in the first place. I want to transfer it from my M3 to an MY. I cannot do it at the time I purchase the MY because we would have both the M3 and MY until the CT comes out and then the M3 will be sold. I would have to have it in writing that I was getting the current full value of FSD at that time, to offset the cost to put it onto one of the other cars, and it would just be easier for Tesla to allow transfer from one vehicle to another than to go through all the other hassles and upset drivers.

To clarify, I meant that they don't remove EAP, FSD, etc from the vehicle like a previous poster said. I was correcting them saying it doesn't just vanish like they were stating.

The upgrades stay with the car, they don't allow you (the first owner) to move the upgrade to another vehicle. Think of it like a car's VIN, they stay with the car they're in and can't be transferred to a new vehicle when you sell that car to someone else. The new owner gets the VIN as part of the transaction and the manufacturer won't just disable the VIN because you sold the car.

 

[RojerLockless]

i added FSD when i ordered my CT last year at 7k kinda glad i did now. I can always opt out when i actually get my CT, but for now it's saving some cash.

what I am more interested in is will FSD become a subscription based feature (as elon as stated it will) before the CT is produced rather than 7k out of pocket. I am hoping I have the option when i take delivery.

for example If FSD is like $9.99 a month we are taking 58 years of FSD for 7k. Even if it's $19.99 a month that's still 29 years of FSD at subscription to break even. I am 50 years old, i wont be alive in 58 years lol (unless some medical breakthroughs happen) and I doubt the CT will last that long

heck if you figure the "average" age of a CT to be 20 years old (most cars on the road today the average age is between 9 and 16 years depending on the state) that's $29.16 per month subscription to break even on the 7k buy in.

But that 20 year figure is VERY generous, look at computer power today vs 20 years go the intel pentium iii was 1ghz monster, your smartphone is more powerful now......and these are VERY computer centric vehicles.

when you look at it at 10k, its even worse.

Yeah you're high if you think it'll be 10 bucks a month it'll be over 100 dollars a month to try it out. It wont' be less than 10k /60 months that's for sure.

 

[FutureBoy]

OK
Looks like the price for FSD is still $8000 right now.

Last call before the price increases!!!!

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

While i agree it wont ever be 10 dollars or 20 a month, but i think it does make financial sense to make the subscription price less than the price of FSD/5years. There is a reason most major software companies are going to a subscription model.

Using an example. Let's say the "break even" for FSD is 10k/60 months = 166 a month. Let's say they set the subscription at 99 a month

Example:
Tesla Sells two cars.

Car A:
Sold 2020 with FSD
Car Price 50k
FSD Price 10k
Total Tesla Revenue = 60k

Car A is Sold to another buyer after 5 years, FSD stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Sold again to another buyer after 5 years, FSD Stays with car
Tesla Revenue = 0

Assuming they keep it for 5 years, Total Tesla Revenue over 20 years = 60k

Car B:
Sold 2020 with FSD Subscription
Car Price 50k
User Subscribes to 99/month for 60 months.
FSD Subscription Revenue = 6k
Total Tesla Revenue for first owner = 56k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User doesn't do subscription
Tesla Revenue = 0

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, User subscribes for FSD.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 6k

Car B is sold to another buyer after 5 years, they only subscribe half the time.
Tesla Revenue over 5 years = 3k

Total Tesla revenue over 20 years = 65k.

Obviously lots of variable that can swing it either way (people might not ALWAYS subscribe to the negative, for the positive, they can potentially raise the price of FSD subscription over time as the feature set grows). I'm just saying it's not a slam dunk that it makes sense for them to price it higher than the 5 year loan split.

Car C/D:

Car C is sold 2019 with FSD Subscription
Car C price 50K
FSD price 6K
Total Tesla revenue 56K

Car D is sold 2021 with FSD transferred
Car D price 60K
FSD price 0K
Total Tesla revenue 116K

Tesla makes a lot more money and owner saves 20K on second FSD license

 

[Willspence]

Hoping that the FSD stays with the vehicle to second owner, I upgraded my CT reservation to include FSD. I'm assuming it (FSD) will be worth way more than the current $8,000 when my tri-motor is delivered.

 

[Cybercarlson]

Well Elons way of telling FSD price will go up an delivering on the promiss (as he often does) worked again......
It boosted Tesla sales.

All though I had ordered 2 CT early (with FSD), yesterday I decided to "add" a third.

This time a single motor with FSD, for local use (range/speed not an important thing).
But around 20'k (by 2023) for FSD on a 40'k car is a 50% mark up compared with ordering today.

It will be delivered late 2023/24 , I might oppt for an even later delivery date.

By then FSD will be working well, allowed by law, but be a very expensive option to buy.

Robotaxi might be up and running or something close (T....'s UBER)
The truck will be rare in Europe and people will want to rent it.
It will "earn its bread" and make some extra revenue.

Do not say "It won't be sold in Europe" :
Tesla will realize that the demand is world wide, not only US of A.
Tesla will want to profit from it, as soone as it has increased the production capacity.

Solution: Just build it at GiGa4 Berlin.
From there it can be deliverd cheaply by rail, or drive it self to the customer, even to Sibiria.
I would love to see the face of the custom officials when the empty car stops at the border with the paperwork stuck behind the windscreen.

I can only think of one down side....
If it all does not work out the reservation will be canceled and I lose 100$ max.

 

[StainlessSsam]

If you ordered it at that time (when it cost $7,000), yes. You get the price of FSD the day you add it to your reservation, so if you added it right now it would be $8,000 and if you order it tomorrow it will be $10,000.

No where in my reservation confirmation or email does it list the price for the vehicle or FSD. Order agreement has lots of legal jargon. Does anyone have anything solid from Tesla in common language that confirms price will not change?

 

[Crissa]

No where in my reservation confirmation or email does it list the price ...

Yes, that seems to be missing. But since it's widely reported, they can't do the fraud thing.

-Crissa

 

[StainlessSsam]

How many would cancel their order if Tesla changes the price of FSD after you placed your reservation?