FSD will get $2k price increase 10/29

[FutureBoy]

If this was someone else, how many different tiers or level to the software would there be?
It would not be the 2 to 3 Tesla has had for its driving assistance software.
Stops lights would have been an option, right turns would be an option, left turns would be an option, the number of occupants would be different options... And distance and speed would be different options.

Think about some of the software out there with micro-transactions and requiring a matrix of the features to figure out what level has what options...

So, no, I do not think Tesla is nickel and dime charging. Instead it is the opposite, it is just a few options and that is it.

I mean, they do not even charge per game or app available...

And you don’t have to sit through a 30 second advertisement for each 5 minutes of driving. Or to engage a temporary enhanced feature.

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[MEDICALJMP]

I’ve been thinking of getting a Model Y and driving it until the CT is available, but I would not do it unless the FSD is transferrable to my CT (which I ordered with FSD). Tesla this loses a sale of a vehicle, and I agree with whoever said that as the FSD prices go up the number of people buying it will go down, and probably exponentially. It is hard to imagine that is what @Elon is intending so he better think about and implement a new FSD strategy and quick.

Why not just skip FSD on the Y and get it on Cybertruck when it is ready?

 

[Gargoile]

What if there is an option for an extended range battery when they are taking orders?

10K for FSD or 10K for more range.

Many people will skip FSD for more range.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Why not just skip FSD on the Y and get it on Cybertruck when it is ready?

I am already signed up for that, but was thinking of getting a Y now. But not unless I can transfer my FSD. This isn’t just about my car, because we want the Y to go to my wife later and she has FSD on her 3. One way or another we get to transfer the/a FSD or we don’t buy a Y at all, and it is all about Tesla policy - a policy that may kill FSD purchases going forward. We can be fine with our 3 and upcoming CT, both with FSD, I am just trying to point out a single case that illustrates an unnecessary and solvable problem.

 

[jerhenderson]

If this was someone else, how many different tiers or level to the software would there be?
It would not be the 2 to 3 Tesla has had for its driving assistance software.
Stops lights would have been an option, right turns would be an option, left turns would be an option, the number of occupants would be different options... And distance and speed would be different options.

Think about some of the software out there with micro-transactions and requiring a matrix of the features to figure out what level has what options...

So, no, I do not think Tesla is nickel and dime charging. Instead it is the opposite, it is just a few options and that is it.

I mean, they do not even charge per game or app available...

not nickel and dime with options..... but expensive. I won't be getting FSD....8k and now 10k is nuts.

 

[T3slaDad]

Just to put a reminder out there: when EM said FSD might have a subscription model, he said it would be considered a more expensive option as compared to buying FSD outright. It's never going to be $9.99 like some of you have said, heck not even $19.99!

There has been speculation about what he said and the common theme is that it'll likely be hundreds a month on a subscription model. Think about it: if you owned an amazing software that took billions to create, would you go around saying "hey you can have those for $10k (or whatever the price then) or for $19.99/mo?" No way! You would likely price the monthly subscription at a rate that equals to the purchase price in 2-5 years.

If we factor in 5 years at the $10k price, that would be $167/mo. Just saying, don't get your hopes up over a magical "possible" subscription model being just a few bucks. This isn't Netflix we're talking about subscribing to, it's life-saving software solutions.

Anyway, it's been reiterated many times here, no risk to add FSD to your reservation now, so you'd be foolish not to. Even if you KNOW you'll never add it in the end, it's a free guarantee in the event that you decide that you would have changed your mind in the future when you're configuring your CT with a $15k price tags on FSD for example, that you would have saved $7k for risk-free guarantee.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Just to put a reminder out there: when EM said FSD might have a subscription model, he said it would be considered a more expensive option as compared to buying FSD outright. It's never going to be $9.99 like some of you have said, heck not even $19.99!

There has been speculation about what he said and the common theme is that it'll likely be hundreds a month on a subscription model. Think about it: if you owned an amazing software that took billions to create, would you go around saying "hey you can have those for $10k (or whatever the price then) or for $19.99/mo?" No way! You would likely price the monthly subscription at a rate that equals to the purchase price in 2-5 years.

If we factor in 5 years at the $10k price, that would be $167/mo. Just saying, don't get your hopes up over a magical "possible" subscription model being just a few bucks. This isn't Netflix we're talking about subscribing to, it's life-saving software solutions.

Anyway, it's been reiterated many times here, no risk to add FSD to your reservation now, so you'd be foolish not to. Even if you KNOW you'll never add it in the end, it's a free guarantee in the event that you decide that you would have changed your mind in the future when you're configuring your CT with a $15k price tags on FSD for example, that you would have saved $7k for risk-free guarantee.

I wonder what the frequency of FSD price increases are going to look like going forward, the amount, and the effect on purchases. I know there are some out there that will always buy and have the resources to do so, but to an increasing extent others will drop out...completely fabricated numbers:

Mid 2019: $6K, not much impact on sales
Late 2019: $7K, people questioning value
Mid 2020: $8K, people starting to opt out
Early Beta: $10K, sales impacted
Extended Beta: $15K, sales drop 20%
Early US rollout: $20K, sales drop 30%

Ok, clearly this is a totally vacuous argument, but the reality could be similar. Obviously there is increased value and accuracy, and trust, with each step, but the price will deter people anyway. What do you folks think?

 

[T3slaDad]

I wonder what the frequency of FSD price increases are going to look like going forward, the amount, and the effect on purchases. I know there are some out there that will always buy and have the resources to do so, but to an increasing extent others will drop out...completely fabricated numbers:

Mid 2019: $6K, not much impact on sales
Late 2019: $7K, people questioning value
Mid 2020: $8K, people starting to opt out
Early Beta: $10K, sales impacted
Extended Beta: $15K, sales drop 20%
Early US rollout: $20K, sales drop 30%

Ok, clearly this is a totally vacuous argument, but the reality could be similar. Obviously there is increased value and accuracy, and trust, with each step, but the price will deter people anyway. What do you folks think?

I think you're not far off at all! I wouldn't be surprised if FSD is at least $15k by the time CT rolls out, $20k+ by the time they have it down pat. If you figure the dramatic price increases as we've gotten closer and closer to true FSD, it makes sense.

Also, think of this: if you had the choice to buy 2 cars, pay 2 registrations, insurances, etc. or 1 car and add true FSD for $20k where you can summon it anywhere when you need it, which would you pick? I personally would take 1 car any day of the week, less to insure, maintain, park, etc. and my wife and I would just summon it as needed (let alone robotaxi network possibility).

It takes me to work, drives home in time for my wife to need it for kids, they use throughout the day, then it comes and gets me when my shift is over.

 

[Eye of Elon]

We cybertruck "owners" are lucky that we can lock in the price and have a few years to gauge the value of FSD, risk free.

I have the 7k FSD but if i was buying a tesla today, i don't think i would make the gamble. Hopefully, by the time i order Tesla insurance will be a thing and it will cover FSD if some idiot totals my vehicle.

Assuming level 4 or 5 autonomy is only a software upgrade. I would bet people without FSD could get their truck to take them to the hospital in an emergency just like deactivated cell phones can still call 911.

If you want FSD for when you become too old and feeble to drive, i'm 99% sure that the Americans With Disabilities Act would force Tesla to FSD models to the handicapped at the same price as non FSD. If they didn't do it out of the kindness of thier hearts.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Tesla should consider the option of having FSD transfer with the vehicle to the new owner or transferring to a new vehicle with the original owner. If I sell my Tesla it may be a selling point to the new buyer to get FSD with the vehicle and maybe a higher price. From a lot of chatter here I wonder if that is not the case on for those selling their cars. Is this right? Or I give my daughter the car, I would want her to have FSD safety. Odd as it may sound, someone selling their Tesla may NOT want to buy another Tesla. Perhaps they want to buy a Lucid or a Hummer EV (LOL!!) so they would not want to keep the FSD.

On the other hand, if I am in an accident and total my Tesla I will not be compensated for a software upgrade by my insurance company. I should have that option to transfer it to my new Tesla vehicle. If I buy an app for my phone and drop the phone in the toilet I need a new phone. My app transfers to the new phone. Why shouldn't my FSD app transfer to my new Model 3, Y, X, CT etc.?

Starting to wonder if the $10,000 FSD price will become a mental barrier to selling the upgrade. Human psychology has a barrier when you push something to 5 figures. Will they price themselves out of the market? On consumer goods when an item breaks the $199 barrier the items go from "luxury" to a "commodity." Think of the DVD player. When they broke the $200 price barrier the DVD players went from something a modest number of people had to something everyone had.

Giving the consumer the option of transferring the FSD to either a new owner of the vehicle or to your new Tesla would help from keeping that price as a barrier of ownership.

 

[T3slaDad]

Tesla should consider the option of having FSD transfer with the vehicle to the new owner or transferring to a new vehicle with the original owner. If I sell my Tesla it may be a selling point to the new buyer to get FSD with the vehicle and maybe a higher price. From a lot of chatter here I wonder if that is not the case on for those selling their cars. Is this right? Or I give my daughter the car, I would want her to have FSD safety. Odd as it may sound, someone selling their Tesla may NOT want to buy another Tesla. Perhaps they want to buy a Lucid or a Hummer EV (LOL!!) so they would not want to keep the FSD.

On the other hand, if I am in an accident and total my Tesla I will not be compensated for a software upgrade by my insurance company. I should have that option to transfer it to my new Tesla vehicle. If I buy an app for my phone and drop the phone in the toilet I need a new phone. My app transfers to the new phone. Why shouldn't my FSD app transfer to my new Model 3, Y, X, CT etc.?

Starting to wonder if the $10,000 FSD price will become a mental barrier to selling the upgrade. Human psychology has a barrier when you push something to 5 figures. Will they price themselves out of the market? On consumer goods when an item breaks the $199 barrier the items go from "luxury" to a "commodity." Think of the DVD player. When they broke the $200 price barrier the DVD players went from something a modest number of people had to something everyone had.

Giving the consumer the option of transferring the FSD to either a new owner of the vehicle or to your new Tesla would help from keeping that price as a barrier of ownership.

Great question! So to clarify, AP, EAP, and FSD are permanently attached to the vehicle and have nothing to do with the owner. Think of it like a new engine. When you sell the car, the new engine you put in it goes to the new owner, you don't just take it out. Same thing: when I bought my ME with EAP from the previous owner (and all Tesla's are this way, no other option), I got the benefit of having EAP on the car already. Seller didn't get to transfer it to his new MY.

I agree in a sense that the owner and buyer should be able to decide together whether software upgrades move or stay with the car. There could easily be situations where the buyer may be ok with paying less to exclude the feature, or the seller may want to keep possession of it on a new Tesla, or the car gets totalled and they want it to go to the new vehicle, etc. But this would have to be a binding agreement facilitated by Tesla so no shenanigans can take place by either party after the sale "hey I was promised FSD was included (when it was agreed not to)" or "hey I said I would transfer FSD to my new Tesla, not sell it with the car (when the agreement was to give it to the buyer)."

Pricing FSD over $10k would have to come with the benefit of robotaxi or similar to the buyer if they plan on selling many. Goes from a great safety feature to a revenue stream or means of transport for those who can't themselves (disabled, elderly, etc).

 

[drscot]

I assume the $7,000 price for FSD listed at the time of pre-purchase will be honored?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I assume the $7,000 price for FSD listed at the time of pre-purchase will be honored?

If you ordered it at that time (when it cost $7,000), yes. You get the price of FSD the day you add it to your reservation, so if you added it right now it would be $8,000 and if you order it tomorrow it will be $10,000.

 

[shaneaus]

The way I imagine this going is that Tesla will, eventually, offer several levels of FSD at different price points.

Example:
Assisted driving level 1: assisted highway driving and emergency alerts = 3000
FSD level 2: level 1 plus auto park, veh returns to you from parking space, etc = 7000
FSD level 3 = full service rural/city street FSD = 10,000

Change the prices however you like. But, if Tesla did this then someone who wasn't certain if they would want it could get their feet wet with a less costly option. Then, after seeing it work, learning to trust the system, and saving up some money - they would have an upgrade path to full FSD.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The way I imagine this going is that Tesla will, eventually, offer several levels of FSD at different price points.

Example:
Assisted driving level 1: assisted highway driving and emergency alerts = 3000
FSD level 2: level 1 plus auto park, veh returns to you from parking space, etc = 7000
FSD level 3 = full service rural/city street FSD = 10,000

Change the prices however you like. But, if Tesla did this then someone who wasn't certain if they would want it could get their feet wet with a less costly option. Then, after seeing it work, learning to trust the system, and saving up some money - they would have an upgrade path to full FSD.

They already offer highway driving for free, and on Thursday it goes to $10K. I can see them doubling the price of full FSD before it hits general release. They already offer a midway version in enhanced autopilot for half price and I imagine that will continue. And then there is the subscription service @elonmust mentioned but even he said that would be expensive comparatively. To me the only real answer is for our purchase of the FSD 'license' to go with us. That is the only way I can feel comfortable about buying another Tesla with FSD.