Does everyone believe FSD will be viable in the next 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

[Jhodgesatmb]

I've been thinking this over now for 2 years, and I still can't internalize the speed at which the AI will be able to completely replace human driving. My best guess is trucking companies will be the first approved for "NO DRIVER" operation, probably in convoy first, and not (widespread) before the end of 2022. Beyond that, very difficult to project. Longer term (by 2025), I do expect almost ALL US jurisdictions to allow "certified" vehicles to operate autonomously in all public roadways. Whether these are delivery drones first, or human passenger vehicles is an open question. I could be too conservative, but I do NOT believe I'm being to aggressive on these estimates. There's just too much to the "time is money" equation to see this approval to operate taking any longer.

It is very easy for me to imagine a time when FSD will be of value to me, but it is equally difficult for me to imagine a time when seeing a vehicle with no driver feels safe. Clearly I am stuck in some time loop where having a person behind the wheel, even if they are doing nothing, seems better. What I want to know is that the autonomous vehicle won’t do anything that would put people at risk, so no matter how stupid a person in another car is the autonomous vehicle doesn’t make things worse. If such guarantees can be made then I suspect policy would follow pretty quickly.

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[Cyberpunk 2021]

I think you will see California allow FSD very quickly after it rolls out to the fleet

https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/15/21517833/cruise-driverless-cars-test-permit-california-dmv

https://www.wired.com/story/california-self-driving-cars-log-most-miles/

https://www.engadget.com/nuro-california-dmv-deployment-permit-214528906.html

California will almost certainly be the first place to allow driverless Teslas. Further, California is the only state where Tesla provides its specialized insurance.

 

[MexiTruck]

I drive in two very different environments.

1. Semi-rural Canada, on two-lane roads and four-lane divided highways. Gentle, speed limit obeying, “rules of the road” baby boomer type folks, in a mild west coast climate.

2. Rural Mexico with two-lane roads, two-lane highways and four-lane divided highways. Drivers who view traffic control signs as being suggestions.

i feel comfortable driving in each of these situations because I know how driving in each environment really works. Stopping at a stop sign in my part of Mexico would be as unpredictable as not stopping at a stop sign in my part if Canada.

I wonder how FSD would work in these two different environments.

 

[Dids]

I drive in two very different environments.

1. Semi-rural Canada, on two-lane roads and four-lane divided highways. Gentle, speed limit obeying, “rules of the road” baby boomer type folks, in a mild west coast climate.

2. Rural Mexico with two-lane roads, two-lane highways and four-lane divided highways. Drivers who view traffic control signs as being suggestions.

i feel comfortable driving in each of these situations because I know how driving in each environment really works. Stopping at a stop sign in my part of Mexico would be as unpredictable as not stopping at a stop sign in my part if Canada.

I wonder how FSD would work in these two different environments.

Which do you like better?

 

[cyberda]

I don't think FSD is really possible in the near term with current HW... and the current AI (as cool as it is). I mean that as Level 5, zero intervention, point to point trips with safety at levels that commercial aviation has. Maybe 10 years from now?

Unless there are some spectacular advances in the next couple years, I'll drop FSD from my order.

 

[Crissa]

Unless there are some spectacular advances in the next couple years, I'll drop FSD from my order.

Opportunity Cost.

-Crissa

 

[cyberda]

Opportunity Cost.

-Crissa

Exactly! I can take my $10k, invest it @ for a 5% gain every year.

When Lvl5 FSD is truly here, the cost will drop dramatically as all mfgs will be delivering their version. Tesla may be ahead of the game now... but there are a lot of competitors working hard to do the same things.

 

[FutureBoy]

Exactly! I can take my $10k, invest it @ for a 5% gain every year.

I can guarantee you a safe and secure 8% if you have over $50k available.

 

[cyberda]

I can guarantee you a safe and secure 8% if you have over $50k available.

... was just spitballing there. My IA got 7% last year and as long as I'm running ahead of inflation I'm not sweating it.
But TY for the offer!

 

[Crissa]

Exactly! I can take my $10k, invest it @ for a 5% gain every year.

Maybe! That's the risk. If they turn it into a subscription tho...

-Crissa

 

[Revoltlution]

Exactly! I can take my $10k, invest it @ for a 5% gain every year.

When Lvl5 FSD is truly here, the cost will drop dramatically as all mfgs will be delivering their version. Tesla may be ahead of the game now... but there are a lot of competitors working hard to do the same things.

Elon has hinted the price will go up substantially, assuming the owner will robotaxi it and make money.

 

[empiredown]

How does the end of the month sound?

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-beta-download-button-release-date-elon-musk/

Bring. It.

ß

 

[rr6013]

Ordered FSD.

The skill required to operate FSD is interesting. Interesting because I can envision a moment in time DOJO can certify vehicle operator+FSD “safe”. Once certified FSD levelX can be used to the linit of your certified skill. THAT is how I see DOJO turning on level4 for certain drivers before and ahead of newbies to FSD.

DOJO will optimize FSD to your weaknesses, OCD behavior with the technology and advance those qualified. Some owner’s may never see FSD beyond level3 in their lifetime.

Gamer’s whose trained reflexes can envision groking FSD, anticipate FSD moves and, crucially, make FSD functionally improve to level5 with their car, their style driving and their trained experience factored into DOJO win level after level upgrades. It’s gamification. Gamification in FSD + DOJO actually incentivizes participation, improves drivability scores and optimizes DOJO per vehicle per driver to the highest embodiment of the technology.

DOJO will train FSD to overcome errors, prevent mistakes and perform risk analysis in realtime at level5. Until that realtime is achieved Tesla FSD is wet ware dependent. That means you can drive safely with FSD engaged AND operate safely historically at a level-specific rating. Wet ware trains FSD not miles, as in Autopilot. Millions of human ”incidents” optimize FSD in “general”. You optimize in specificity FSD driving and both accumulate history. Then level5 and DOJO reach safety numbers that exceed human drivers. At that point, DOJO cannot learn anything from you. FSD will function better without your nanny-whinging. You don’t need to operate, drive or be present for FSD.

Welcome to level5.