Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk

[bfdog]

"Good afternoon and congratulations on the progress. First question related to Cybertruck, you mentioned you'll sell as many as you can make. Can you remind me how many you think you can make and any thoughts on the cost of production for making those Cybertrucks?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. I think we don't comment on those detailed numbers, except the demand is just far more than we could reasonably make in the space of, I don't know, three or four years, something like that. So, the thing we're going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that's very fundamental because if you don't improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven't actually produced more electric vehicles. So, that's part of the reason why we have not, for example, really accelerated production of the Tesla Semi because it does use a lot of cells and unless we've got a lot of battery cells available, then -- and say like accelerating production of the Tesla Semi would then necessarily mean making pure Model 3 or Model Y cars. And so, we've got a really -- make sure we get a very steep ramp in battery production and continue to improve the cost per kilowatt hour of the batteries. This is very fundamental and extremely difficult."

He repeated that they will sell as many as they can make for many years (demand will exceed output). And he said batteries are the bottleneck.

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[Zhe Wiz]

Yep. No where in there does it say “it will take us 3-4 years to build existing preorders”. He’s talking about “the demand” for the truck. While that is open to interpretation, I have a hard time believing “the demand” (over 3-4 years) is equal to preorders. It certainly is calculated USING preorders, but it’s not equal to preorders. At least that is my interpretation. Elon is intentionally cryptic. ?

 

[bfdog]

He was on an earnings call where potential investors listen to decide Tesla’s value. He’s cryptic only with respect to numbers certain on how many they will be able to make. So the SEC doesn’t hammer him again. He wants the shorts to lose money and demand for Tesla stock to increase-all while not getting hammered by the SEC.

A main reason demand and pre-orders are not congruent numbers is because the preorders only require a 100 buck refundable deposit. He wanted to show massive “demand” for Tesla products to pump up stock value. And it worked. He’s offering $2B in stock right now and buying some with Ellison to show his/their alleged confidence. Even with dilution the stock value went up. He’s engineering stock increases to achieve other goals including screwing shorts and obtaining capital--for himself (Mars) and Tesla. Many will cancel and many ordered 3 trucks they won’t buy. Many will jump on the bandwagon and order later. But he absolutely said based on current demand (I.e., pre-order number) they wouldnt even be able to fill the orders in 3-4 years, The 100 buck number with refunds was to pump up demand to lure investors. And gauge interest. They were gonna change to F150 shape if people hated it.

The 39k truck will be 50+ all in and so on. Just like with the model 3. To counter the demand and to increase profit. That's why 3M went to the front of the line. All his numbers are wonky most of the time because he aims high, they are having to invent the process (and materials) to fabricate their inventions. And get government approval. He’s the best innovator of all time in the world and I’ve said that for years. But he has blind spots not caused by lack of CT mirrors. He needs to clone himself or hire actual CEOs for this stuff. Demand is tied to so much including fuel prices., which are historically low right now, which goes against demand right now. There are a lot of people though that will be embarrassed to drive a CT. And would rather get the Hummer or Rivian. I'm more interested to see if they can actually stand up to towing 14K pounds. Whoever builds that EV truck--I'll buy.

 

[Fenestrator]

Well if it takes Tesla four to six years to make my single motor base truck, at least I’ll have a fighting chance that the bugs will be all ironed out of the CT. Problem is will I need if in that far in they future?

 

[cbbowlingmd]

Hey guys, just joined. This is my first post. I, too, waited on ordering - mainly because it took me a while to accept the external design (it grew on me). Finally, my brain clicked over to function over form and I ordered. Unfortunately, it appears I'm 487,xxxth in line.

That being said, I do anticipate 10%-15% dropout rate, plus I did order the tri-motor (42% of the orders so far I believe). If it's true that tri's will be rolled out first (ahead of any dual or single), I would anticipate that my number drops down to around 225,xxx in line. Maybe that's good enough for me to see it in 2023. That's when I give my current vehicle to my daughter who'll be ready to drive. And plenty of time for bugs/kinks to be addressed.

 

[GvJames]

Can't wait 3-4 years to go EV, just ordered a Model 3 w/ FSD to bridge the gap. Better to sell my ICE now before the bottom falls off resale value. Figure minimal depreciation with Model 3 at worst at the time of CT delivery, Best case FSD is ramping up and I can turn it into a money printer to pay for the 2 CTs on order.

 

[ajdelange]

First the good news: Just saw a piece on Teslarati last night that says the depreciation on the 3 is the best for any car ever. Can't predict the future, though. Also in the good news department: you will be very glad you got the 3 now.

Now the bad news: you will not be able to turn it into an automated money machine. FSD is way too far off in the future (if it ever arrives and I have my doubts). If you want to make money with it you'll have to join up with Uber or Lyft and drive it.

 

[Héli]

Hope I will be able to take Bruno (my old dog) for a ride in my CT. He promised he would wait........

 

[John K]

Hope I will be able to take Bruno (my old dog) for a ride in my CT. He promised he would wait........

Is your avatar a picture of Bruno? Spoil him a little bit more for us all.

 

[Héli]

Yes, we had to have his two knees replaced and he has thyroid medication twice a day and I give him one injection a month for his cartilage: we walk him two hours a day and of course the thyroid is not the only reason why he gains weight....... he is spoiled...... he has his own bedroom with a queensize

 

[Usachris]

Yeah, but how is that different than the latest hot electronic device? People pay a premium because they have too much money and too little patience. I suppose it’s possible that reselling for a profit might be possible for a short time. Seems like too much trouble to me.

I had someone pay me $100 for me place in line for the first iPhone. It wasn’t even on the first day or that great of a place in line. I got lunch and went home and got the phone the next day. I can totally see someone paying way more that MSRP for a CT if they can get it a year sooner.

 

[Cyber-Wild]

I’m not gonna lie. I love my CT brothers and sisters, but I’m secretly hoping you all get tired of waiting and get the Rivian or new electric hummer.

Watch the pen as I move it from side to side... you’re getting sleepy... that’s it....sleepy.... now, when I speak the word “knock-off,” you will withdraw your CyberTruck order and desire to purchase a wannabe version of the most awesome electric truck.

?? this is great. I’m buying a Model 3 for the wait. I ordered way late so I’m at the very back of this line.

 

[Jon2nd]

Well being 20, 000th in line i hope i don't have to wait 2 to 4 years. I have tesla solar, tesla battery back up. I am just tired of wasting time at the pump. I want to just go on with my day with free energy for my transportation and not waste time at a stinky pump any longer. Fingers crossed!

How did you estimate being 20,000th in line? My order # is: RN113206332 placed on Jan 7. Is there a way where this is in the cue?

 

[ModelAZ]

How did you estimate being 20,000th in line? My order # is: RN113206332 placed on Jan 7. Is there a way where this is in the cue?

Jon - see here: How to tell your place in line based on Cybertruck preorder reservation number

That's how you calculate where you are in line.

 

[Bond007]

I’m not gonna lie. I love my CT brothers and sisters, but I’m secretly hoping you all get tired of waiting and get the Rivian or new electric hummer.

Watch the pen as I move it from side to side... you’re getting sleepy... that’s it....sleepy.... now, when I speak the word “knock-off,” you will withdraw your CyberTruck order and desire to purchase a wannabe version of the most awesome electric truck.

My first post here, but this post totally made me laugh. Like many of you guys here, I also hesitated a bit cause the design of CT was way too much for me initially. It slowly grew on me and now I’m totally in love with it. With the information provided I am about 270,xxx’th in line, so looks like third year production at least. I hope that early gremlins would have solved by that time. It great to know that there’s an awesome community of Cybertruck forum members.