Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk

[Administrator]

When asked by Gene Munster, from Loup Ventures, about how many Cybertrucks Tesla would be able to deliver and its production costs, Musk said this:

“We don't comment on those detailed numbers, except the demand is just far more than we could reasonably make in the space of, I don't know, three or four years, something like that.”

“I have never seen actually such a level of demand at this – we've never seen anything like it, basically. I think we will make about as many as we can sell for many years. So, we'll sell as many as we can make. It's going to be pretty nuts.”

“We tried to build a product that is superior in every way without any preconceptions of how such should look. (…) I think actually the product is better than people realize even, they don't have enough information to realize just the awesomeness of it. It's just great.”

The unofficial pre-order reservation list is estimating 487,270 orders so far. If we divide this by four, we get 121,000/yr, which could be a preview # of how many Cybertrucks Musks expects to produce per year.

The constraints on production result not only from the production output limit of Giga factories, but also battery production capacity. Musk said:

“The thing we're going to be really focused on is increasing battery production capacity because that's very fundamental. If you don't improve battery production capacity, then you end up just shifting unit volume from one product to another and you haven't actually produced more electric vehicles."

Of the upcoming production / factory pipe, Musk says:

“What we have in front of us in the next couple of years: We've got Model Y, we've got Giga Berlin, Tesla Semi, Solarglass Roof, Cybertruck, and some very exciting improvements in battery technology. We have full self-driving, we got the next-gen Roadster and probably a bunch of other products we'll come up with too.”

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[Cybertruck 1974]

Well being 20, 000th in line i hope i don't have to wait 2 to 4 years. I have tesla solar, tesla battery back up. I am just tired of wasting time at the pump. I want to just go on with my day with free energy for my transportation and not waste time at a stinky pump any longer. Fingers crossed!

 

[ajdelange]

Eight people liked this post. I don't like it at all!

 

[Cody the cat]

Five people liked this post. I don't like it at all!

How do you think I feel AJ? Remember im living vicariously through you people getting the CT.
So not only is there a wait, but I have to pretend wait on top of that.
Boooo

 

[Saskateam]

I like information about the CT even if I don’t like the information given.

 

[XB12R]

Going to need a bigger boat GigaFactory.

 

[climatewarrior]

I think based on past production targets and numbers it will be 25K the first year 2021 and ramp up from that point in 2022 to 75K. Bigger batteries factories are coming. Well know more on investor day when he talks about cell production and breakthroughs.

 

[Garden_Aum]

While I do not like the idea of having to wait three years, I think it will be worth the wait. I hope to save enough to pay for most of the Cybertruck tri-motor; an additional year may allow me to pay for it outright. Debt free Cybertruck would be super sweet.

 

[Cody the cat]

While I do not like the idea of having to wait three years, I think it will be worth the wait. I hope to save enough to pay for most of the Cybertruck tri-motor; an additional year may allow me to pay for it outright. Debt free Cybertruck would be super sweet.

Paid off makes the ride that much sweeter

 

[Garden_Aum]

Five people liked this post. I don't like it at all!

The take away from this is there is a huge demand for clean technology trucks. The number of orders will force the legacy automobile and truck manufacturers to adopt the electrification of transport. IF they do not they will become footnotes in the pages of history books in the same way that buggy whip makers and print media have become obsolete. Look at how the Model 3 continues to increase in sales numbers while the market share for BMW 3-Series, Audi A-4, and Mercedes C-Class have fallen. Tesla is forcing change. We have no other choices or we will live in an increasingly polluted cities which will shorten all of our lifespans.

 

[Buffel]

Also with the producability focus of the CT, I hope accelerating the rampup will be easier than with the 3. I expect batteries, batteries and batteries will be the deciding factor.

 

[TennesseeCyber]

While I do not like the idea of having to wait three years, I think it will be worth the wait. I hope to save enough to pay for most of the Cybertruck tri-motor; an additional year may allow me to pay for it outright. Debt free Cybertruck would be super sweet.

This is totally my plan. Run my side gig for the sole purpose of accumulating Cybertruck cash. In 3 years, I should have $45k ready to cash out. I’m planning to order a cold rolled stainless steel suitcase to carry the cash to the Tesla dealer. I’ll probably need some Tron style sunglasses as well. CT people are a unique bunch.

 

[TennesseeCyber]

I’m not gonna lie. I love my CT brothers and sisters, but I’m secretly hoping you all get tired of waiting and get the Rivian or new electric hummer.

Watch the pen as I move it from side to side... you’re getting sleepy... that’s it....sleepy.... now, when I speak the word “knock-off,” you will withdraw your CyberTruck order and desire to purchase a wannabe version of the most awesome electric truck.

 

[cyberda]

Assume lets say... 500,000 reservations as of today. Soooo...

Subtract 25% for cancellations.
Assume production volume ramp up is similar to M3 , which delivered 438,634 in 2.5 years (according to Wiki)
Assume production actually starts by Jan 2022.
Negative influences: 1) It could turn out to be super complicated to build in volume. 2) battery supply drys up.
Positive influences: 1) No painting to do! 2) not Telsas' first rodeo

It just could be we ALL will be tooling around in our CTs by mid 2024

It may not be as bad as Elon seems to say.
He may be speaking to the # they project by the time production starts... or it could be Elon speaking in his Elon-esque way.

 

[Garden_Aum]

Assume lets say... 500,000 reservations as of today. Soooo...

Subtract 25% for cancellations.
Assume production volume ramp up is similar to M3 , which delivered 438,634 in 2.5 years (according to Wiki)
Assume production actually starts by Jan 2022.
Negative influences: 1) It could turn out to be super complicated to build in volume. 2) battery supply drys up.
Positive influences: 1) No painting to do! 2) not Telsas' first rodeo

It just could be we ALL will be tooling around in our CTs by mid 2024

It may not be as bad as Elon seems to say.
He may be speaking to the # they project by the time production starts... or it could be Elon speaking in his Elon-esque way.

The first deliveries of the Model Y have already started ahead of schedule. We may find this to be also true when Cybertrucks start being delivered. As you pointed out, there is no paint; that is going to save a lot of time.