Analysis: Will Tesla Have to Delay Cybertruck Production / Launch?

[Cyber1qhorsey]

Giga Freemont operating at 1/4 work force today. As I mentioned in earlier post Tesla is not well capitalized to endure a severe recession. May need a big Govt Loan. No new CT factory soon!

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[VolklKatana]

Not if Elon can help it!!!

 

[Blue Steel]

Giga Freemont operating at 1/4 work force today. As I mentioned in earlier post Tesla is not well capitalized to endure a severe recession. May need a big Govt Loan. No new CT factory soon!

Interesting, this article says the opposite.

https://electrek.co/2020/03/19/tesla-strong-weather-several-months-shut-down-analyst/

 

[Cyber1qhorsey]

If production goes to zero in Freemont, production also declines almost as much, in Reno. Of course, they could switch over to power packs snd utility power projects at the latter. 5 quarters of shut down scenario seems not extreme any more, sadly. Leaving Tesla with no cash. But loans will be available, presumably. Where is the money to build three factories in a severe recession? Guess what the third is?

 

[stumby]

Despite the shutting down of Fremont plant and the Buffalo solar plant, they should have enough to weather the shuttering. This is from Gene Munster, an analyst who covers Tesla.

Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster has the same point of view after evaluating the company's capabilities. In response to the likelihood that the Tesla Fremont factory would be closed, he wrote in a note:

"We see this as a dramatic but temporary shock to Tesla’s production that will ultimately have little impact on the company’s long-term outlook.

Tesla is now well-capitalized and not at risk of running out of money. More importantly, a Fremont shutdown does not change the undeniable truth that the future of mobility will be electric and autonomous and Tesla holds a strong leadership position.

Two years ago, during the Model 3 ramp, Tesla was at risk of running out of cash with only $ 2.5B in the bank. Today, a temporary production shutdown, even one followed by a material decline in global demand for new cars, does not put the company at risk of running out of money.

Tesla’s balance sheet is strong enough to weather multiple quarters of a Fremont shutdown. In February, Tesla raised $ 2.3B in cash, which brought the cash position at the time to around $ 8.6B. The magnitude of the quarterly cash burn with no Fremont production is difficult to predict. That said, since manufacturing cars has high variable costs related to components and labor, the cash burn will be modest relative to the immediate drop in production."

 

[hridge2020]

Interesting, this article says the opposite.

https://electrek.co/2020/03/19/tesla-strong-weather-several-months-shut-down-analyst/

Well then theres the requirement for spare parts. Where would this come from, if the plants are shut down???

 

[keyhere]

The truck still needs a lot of design work put into it and the production line. This is certainly being doing by engineers working remotely through all this. The whole thing will probably delay production a bit but I think the stage they're in it won't be too bad.

 

[carpedatum]

Tesla's engineering culture includes a lot of pride in how scrappy they can be, and burns an awful lot of midnight oil. They haven't been doing much WFH so I imagine there will be a stumble or two figuring that out, but they'll make it up. I can't see funding being a huge problem with the $2.3B they took in during that last stock sale. If this thing drags on for a year, though, getting the manufacturing capacity in play could cause delays.

 

[Dids]

I can confirm that gin and tonic cures coronavirus fear. I feel invincible!

 

[SpaceDoc]

I'm with Elon on this. The panic is way worse than the virus. Shutting down everyone to protect the vulnerable is ridiculous. It just a cold, yes a particularly nasty one but there is another way to do this. Quarantine the vulnerable and let everyone else get on with their lives. I know this sounds harsh but in june and july if this drags on it will be the only solution anyway. I'm purely saying this because I want CT now and if a few boomers have to... ?

Elon is not wrong about much, but he’s dead wrong about this. This topic is far outside his otherwise large wheelhouse. This flu season will kill about 34,000 people in the US this year and its mortality rate is about 0.9%. Coronavirus has a likely mortailty rate of about 1 to 2% under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators, widespread testing available, all appropriate public health measures taken, etc.). So that’s about 340,000 to 680,000 dead Americans under ideal conditions. It could be not so bad, or it could be much worse. And coronavirus does kill people in all age ranges, other than children under about 9 years of age. Realistically, there are many unknowns so erring on the side of caution is the smart move.

 

[Dids]

Elon is not wrong about much, but he’s dead wrong about this. This topic is far outside his otherwise large wheelhouse. This flu season will kill about 34,000 people in the US this year and its mortality rate is about 0.9%. Coronavirus has a likely mortailty rate of about 1 to 2% under ideal conditions (enough ICU beds, enough ventilators, widespread testing available, all appropriate public health measures taken, etc.). So that’s about 340,000 to 680,000 dead Americans under ideal conditions. It could be not so bad, or it could be much worse. And coronavirus does kill people in all age ranges, other than children under about 9 years of age. Realistically, there are many unknowns so erring on the side of caution is the smart move.

And in a month? Is the curve flat enough? I am fully complying with the 15 day plan but what comes next? We had 3 months to prepare, is 15 days going to cure the dereliction?

 

[Cyber1qhorsey]

"And in a month? Is the curve flat enough? I am fully complying with the 15 day plan but what comes next? We had 3 months to prepare, is 15 days going to cure the dereliction?"

So, under the best case with the most restrictions on socializing, in person, COVID-19 will drag on for several months. In that time our society will adapt to a lower level of infections, rapid patient isolation and testing, but piddling, if any. US car production. Under these circumstances I also don't see pent up demand to purchase either.
Think outside your own box to earn money if you can. That means home business, helping people to cope, or community deliveries. Shipping and warehouse gigs.
Some manufacturers can move work into garages. We need a huge effort to make protective reuseable masks and gowns. Help people cope if they're worse off. They may gladly pay you to do so. Odd jobs in the neighborhood need doing. Shipping and big box stores are adding jobs. Keep up the spirit! If you have the money to get some outside work done, e.g., carport, roof, patio, landscaping. These are jobs that should be able to continue. Stay well!

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[CybrBigA]

Passing time during Coronavirus lockdown . Solar powered paper Cybrtruck hack

 

[Dids]

Passing time during Coronavirus lockdown . Solar powered paper Cybrtruck hack

What's its towing range?

 

[hridge2020]

uhmmm, if the Fremont plant is basically with a skeleton crew, parts will seem to be less in case in need of replacement/damage.