Actual Completion Day

[Mini2nut]

Here is a pic of the Model Y demonstrator paint sag/run. It's hard to see but look above the tire reflection.

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[dano0726]

Agree with the above posters -- CyberTruck + Semi should be the main focus of the Austin facility, especially since you can get a dual motor CT for less than the current Model Y SUV

 

[mrbulk]

Well since my S lease expires in March, I sure dang hope so...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Does anyone else feel that CT orders will be completed quicker than anticipated? The factory has already been started and it sounds like they will be using prefab concrete. I read Q3 for completion of the factory, which seems ridiculous.

Also, with new advanced assembly methods they are planning....I can see the first CT roll off the line middle of next year. I also think that Giga Texas will have quicker build rates than most vehicles based on information I've heard. Just a thought.

We are seeing very good progress on the Austin factory so I give them about a year to start CT production if the Shanghai factory is a decent metric of comparison. They beat their own delivery timeline for Model Y here by 6 months, and that factors in as well. I suppose that if they really want to assemble Ys in 2020, then whether they meet that goal will be a very effective measure for what can/will happen with the CT production.

 

[BillyGee]

They beat their own delivery timeline for Model Y here by 6 months, and that factors in as well.

I would argue that's the most optimistic point. Between that being so far ahead of schedule, the simplicity to manufacture the CT based on every analysis, and the permissiveness of TX manufacturing law, I would be shocked if it's delayed.

 

[ricinro]

Here is a pic of the paint sag/run. It's hard to see but look above the tire reflection.

paint run... use it as a demo....

 

[ricinro]

Roadrunner/battery day...
So much has been leaked and speculated yet Elon still insists we will be dazzled. Perhaps the rate of construction at these gigatera sites is a hint. The technological advance is not just the cars or trucks but the means to automate and exponentially improve all the components in a highly vertical system.
Roadrunner and the building expansion may be more than new battery tech but a factory to mass produce next generation battery manufacturing cells each which can output more in less time than can be done by the Panasonic line. Second order? third order? production and agile enough to meet demand anywhere within a few months?

Perhaps the battery/tech is the gating item...critical path and the postponed battery day gave Tesla the opportunity to develop the battery factory cell making machine.

its all good but give the concrete its few weeks to cure.

 

[Hunter Sawyer]

Roadrunner/battery day...
So much has been leaked and speculated yet Elon still insists we will be dazzled. Perhaps the rate of construction at these gigatera sites is a hint. The technological advance is not just the cars or trucks but the means to automate and exponentially improve all the components in a highly vertical system.
Roadrunner and the building expansion may be more than new battery tech but a factory to mass produce next generation battery manufacturing cells each which can output more in less time than can be done by the Panasonic line. Second order? third order? production and agile enough to meet demand anywhere within a few months?

Perhaps the battery/tech is the gating item...critical path and the postponed battery day gave Tesla the opportunity to develop the battery factory cell making machine.

its all good but give the concrete its few weeks to cure.

Elon always mentions the machine that builds the machine. He believes that that factories themselves are products that are more important than what is made in them.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Keep in mind model Y production in Texas is going to be general assembly. This is very doable in one of those sprung tints Tesla likes to use so early next year doesn't seem crazy at all. Not saying that is what they will do but they could. Also i think the actual cyber truck portion of this factory will be relatively small, i bet they get that section done quicker than we think. Then they probably still have to do some sort of pilot production.

 

[maconjt]

Keep in mind model Y production in Texas is going to be general assembly. This is very doable in one of those sprung tints Tesla likes to use so early next year doesn't seem crazy at all. Not saying that is what they will do but they could. Also i think the actual cyber truck portion of this factory will be relatively small, i bet they get that section done quicker than we think. Then they probably still have to do some sort of pilot production.

Yes, the CT production will be A LOT quicker than other Tesla vehicles due to the exoskeleton. How simple of a production line will that be. One big chunk of steel and then robotically attach a bunch of parts to it.....super fast!

 

[ReynSupreme]

That is 4-6 weeks for a custom order. They had lots of Model Ys at the local showroom on Sunday when we test drove one. We could probably have rolled out of there in one if we had wanted. I think the rest of your comment is correct. We mentioned battery day to the guy we were talking with and he already had an answer and I didn’t buy it (the answer or the car). His answer was that there have already been Teslas that have driven 1 million miles, and that any new batteries would trickle down from the premier lines and might take years to get to the 3/Y. I thought, but didn’t voice it, that there is a huge difference between a few cars getting 1 million miles and a battery that is guaranteed to get 1.25 million miles (such as the CATL battery), and that Tesla would lose big time if they only put the new batteries into Model S/X. Yesterday’s news out of Berlin tells us that he was trying to snow me. Sorry Charlie.

so what are you saying? that the better batteries WILL start being included on 3&Y? Im really considering buying a Y this month, but if waiting a few months will make a difference. . . .

 

[ReynSupreme]

Yes, the CT production will be A LOT quicker than other Tesla vehicles due to the exoskeleton. How simple of a production line will that be. One big chunk of steel and then robotically attach a bunch of parts to it.....super fast!

Plus No Paint to worry about.

 

[Mini2nut]

so what are you saying? that the better batteries WILL start being included on 3&Y? Im really considering buying a Y this month, but if waiting a few months will make a difference. . . .

I would put off a Model Y purchase until after September 22nd, Battery Day. I think Elon will have some surprise announcements coming.

 

[Bigvbear]

so what are you saying? that the better batteries WILL start being included on 3&Y? Im really considering buying a Y this month, but if waiting a few months will make a difference. . . .

I doubt this highly. They will most likely offer the new batteries in the Semi, roadster, and CT (maybe a refreshed model X which is way overdue for one). It does not make sense to put them in current production vehicles.

The fact that Tesla has signed another 3 year deal with Panasonic (which produces the current battery cells) supports this theory.

 

[ReynSupreme]

I would put off a Model Y purchase until after September 22nd, Battery Day. I think Elon will have some surprise announcements coming.

well looks like I would have to wait a few weeks for delivery anyway. . .