Actual Completion Day

[maconjt]

Does anyone else feel that CT orders will be completed quicker than anticipated? The factory has already been started and it sounds like they will be using prefab concrete. I read Q3 for completion of the factory, which seems ridiculous.

Also, with new advanced assembly methods they are planning....I can see the first CT roll off the line middle of next year. I also think that Giga Texas will have quicker build rates than most vehicles based on information I've heard. Just a thought.

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[TyPope]

Does anyone else feel that CT orders will be completed quicker than anticipated? The factory has already been started and it sounds like they will be using prefab concrete. I read Q3 for completion of the factory, which seems ridiculous.

Also, with new advanced assembly methods they are planning....I can see the first CT roll off the line middle of next year. I also think that Giga Texas will have quicker build rates than most vehicles based on information I've heard. Just a thought.

What you'll most likely see is the Model Y production line being the first thing they build there. Right now, they can sell those as fast as they can build them. Elon said they'd have the Model Y vehicles coming out of the Austin Gigafactory by the end of this year. That's a WAY aggressive timeline but since they are already building the Model Y parts, it is conceivable they could at least get the assembly part of the line done in Austin and just bring in parts from the Freemont factory. It's not the most efficient way to produce vehicles but it's done elsewhere. AFTER the Model Y assembly, you'll get Model Y production (all the casting, stamping, and pressing) part done. THEN, they'll get started on the CT line. They'll make their timeline, I'll bet.

 

[Mini2nut]

The Y is not selling as fast as predicted, especially during the current pandemic. The current wait time is only 4-8 weeks for delivery. Also, many potential buyers are holding off until the September 22nd Battery Day announcement as they want the latest and greatest 2nd generation of batteries.


The main problem with Y is the premium price point. The family SUV has a starting price of $50k before adding the destination fee, options and local sales tax. The average US family simply can't afford a $700+ car payment.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The Y is not selling as fast as predicted, especially during the current pandemic. The current wait time is only 4-8 weeks for delivery. Also, many potential buyers are holding off until the September 22nd Battery Day announcement as they want the latest and greatest 2nd generation of batteries.


The main problem with Y is the premium price point. The family SUV has a starting price of $50k before adding the destination fee, options and local sales tax. The average US family simply can't afford a $700+ car payment.

That is 4-6 weeks for a custom order. They had lots of Model Ys at the local showroom on Sunday when we test drove one. We could probably have rolled out of there in one if we had wanted. I think the rest of your comment is correct. We mentioned battery day to the guy we were talking with and he already had an answer and I didn’t buy it (the answer or the car). His answer was that there have already been Teslas that have driven 1 million miles, and that any new batteries would trickle down from the premier lines and might take years to get to the 3/Y. I thought, but didn’t voice it, that there is a huge difference between a few cars getting 1 million miles and a battery that is guaranteed to get 1.25 million miles (such as the CATL battery), and that Tesla would lose big time if they only put the new batteries into Model S/X. Yesterday’s news out of Berlin tells us that he was trying to snow me. Sorry Charlie.

 

[Mini2nut]

Yes, that's for a custom order.

We test drove a Performance Model Y on Sunday. The local store had 4 of them to choose from. We test drove a gray colored unit and it had a HUGE 4" paint run on the passenger door and a terrible panel gap on the rear hatch. Tesla needs to steal the paint shop/assembly line Quality Control Team from Audi ASAP. It's inexcusable on a $60k+ automobile.

 

[Bigvbear]

Tesla has 2 big hurdles they need to overcome right now.

A) Delivery
The new factory in Austin will assist with this, IF it's up and running by the times they think it will be. The schedule is extremely ambitious.

I don't see this facility being for any model Y production though, Tesla can't seem to move these cars right now (See below). They should dedicate it to the CT and possibly the Semi. Both of these have very large pre order queues. The Semi has some big names ordering UPS, 125 Semis; PepsiCo, 100; Los Angeles-based TCI Transportation, 50; Bee’ah, a United Arab Emirates-based refuse-hauling company, 50; Sysco, 50; Wal-Mart, 45; Anheuser-Busch, 40; Canadian grocery chain operator Loblaw Cos., 25; DHL,

If Tesla can start to deliver these to them, you can bet some will order more.

B) price point. Even the lowest cost model is close or above a luxury ICE price tag (IE BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc)

There is no $35,000 Model 3 (lowest cost model is $37,500)
There is no $37,000 Model Y (lowest cost model is $49,900)
These are price points Tesla promised, but never delivered.

I fear there will be no $39,000 CT either.

I agree, not everyone can afford a $700+ a month car payment when many are not sure if they will have a job next month due to this mishandled pandemic. I know I am not taking on any new debt because of it.

 

[mertzjeremy]

Does anyone else feel that CT orders will be completed quicker than anticipated? The factory has already been started and it sounds like they will be using prefab concrete. I read Q3 for completion of the factory, which seems ridiculous.

Also, with new advanced assembly methods they are planning....I can see the first CT roll off the line middle of next year. I also think that Giga Texas will have quicker build rates than most vehicles based on information I've heard. Just a thought.

Tera Texas sounds better.

 

[Mini2nut]

I fully agree. The Cybertruck and Semi will need to take priority for production once the factory is completed. If they have a 50% take rate as I predict that means roughly 400k CT orders are sitting in the Q right now.

Its too bad the Model Y has such a premium price point as it looks, drives and feels pretty amazing. The car would be back ordered for a year if they could magically bring the price down to $39,900. My hunch is that Tesla will be adding a lower price point version of the Y down the road even though he recently stated otherwise. Tesla will need to if they want to keep the production lines running after the early adopters get their long range and performance versions.

CNBC...

“On Sunday, CEO Elon Musk said the company was canceling plans to produce a less-expensive standard-range version of the crossover SUV, saying that its expected range of less than 250 miles would be “unacceptably low.”

Now, the lowest-priced Model Y, the long-range all-wheel drive version, starts at $49,990, according to Tesla’s website. The standard-range version would have started at $39,000.

The Model Y moves indicate demand for Tesla’s electric vehicles is flagging in the company’s home base of the United States, said Vicki Bryan, CEO of investment research firm Bond Angle.“

 

[Hunter Sawyer]

That is 4-6 weeks for a custom order. They had lots of Model Ys at the local showroom on Sunday when we test drove one. We could probably have rolled out of there in one if we had wanted. I think the rest of your comment is correct. We mentioned battery day to the guy we were talking with and he already had an answer and I didn’t buy it (the answer or the car). His answer was that there have already been Teslas that have driven 1 million miles, and that any new batteries would trickle down from the premier lines and might take years to get to the 3/Y. I thought, but didn’t voice it, that there is a huge difference between a few cars getting 1 million miles and a battery that is guaranteed to get 1.25 million miles (such as the CATL battery), and that Tesla would lose big time if they only put the new batteries into Model S/X. Yesterday’s news out of Berlin tells us that he was trying to snow me. Sorry Charlie.

There is currently one Tesla that I know of with 1,000,000 KM not miles(replaced batteries twice). But the new 1,000,000 mile batteries are not going to the high volume vehicles until they have a GigaFactory dedicated to it. They will be making it close to Fremont in a building with 156,057 sq ft(look Project Roadrunner) while the GigaFactory has 5,300,000 sq ft. There will be no room to manufacture the cells required for the 3 or Y. Giga Berlin is said to produce the new batteries so my guess is so would Giga Texas. My predictions are that the batteries are going to appear in this order: Plaid Model S/X - Semi, Cybertruck - Model 3/Y, Roadster. Even more so, Tesla and Panasonic just renewed their contract for another 3 years, so I expect all models to use the new technology at that time. We'll hopefully find out on September 22.

TL;DR

The Tesla employee was wrong about the 1,000,000 miles but is probably right about the new batteries. Probably had good intentions, just wait till battery day.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yes, that's for a custom order.

We test drove a Performance Model Y on Sunday. The local store had 4 of them to choose from. We test drove a gray colored unit and it had a HUGE 4" paint run on the passenger door and a terrible panel gap on the rear hatch. Tesla needs to steal the paint shop/assembly line Quality Control Team from Audi ASAP. It's inexcusable on a $60k+ automobile.

All the Ys we saw at the showroom and test were flawless and I looked closely because of all the comments. I am not negating what you saw; I am sure it is true. There is clearly inconsistent manufacturing and the Y won’t sell unless/until the clean it up.

 

[Mini2nut]

I forgot to take a photo of the paint run since we were in a rush to return the key card to the store (we went beyond the allotted test drive time. They let us drive without a sales person). I'm a Tesla fan and I hate to report on the major cosmetic blemish and panel alignment. The store is close, I may swing by in the morning and take a pic.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

There is currently one Tesla that I know of with 1,000,000 KM not miles(replaced batteries twice). But the new 1,000,000 mile batteries are not going to the high volume vehicles until they have a GigaFactory dedicated to it. They will be making it close to Fremont in a building with 156,057 sq ft(look Project Roadrunner) while the GigaFactory has 5,300,000 sq ft. There will be no room to manufacture the cells required for the 3 or Y. Giga Berlin is said to produce the new batteries so my guess is so would Giga Texas. My predictions are that the batteries are going to appear in this order: Plaid Model S/X - Semi, Cybertruck - Model 3/Y, Roadster. Even more so, Tesla and Panasonic just renewed their contract for another 3 years, so I expect all models to use the new technology at that time. We'll hopefully find out on September 22.

TL;DR

The Tesla employee was wrong about the 1,000,000 miles but is probably right about the new batteries. Probably had good intentions, just wait till battery day.

I don’t doubt his intentions, and I agree that new batteries would first go to plaid S/X models, but they will be low volume. Tesla will have a couple of years to build up volume for the CT and battery technology will surely change for the better in that time. Maybe they will offer the new batteries to 3/Y buyers for a premium and phase them into the regular price range over time. The trick will be the semi. I guess we’ll see in a month and a half. I am more interested in the announcement than in the deployment.

 

[Hunter Sawyer]

I don’t doubt his intentions, and I agree that new batteries would first go to plaid S/X models, but they will be low volume. Tesla will have a couple of years to build up volume for the CT and battery technology will surely change for the better in that time. Maybe they will offer the new batteries to 3/Y buyers for a premium and phase them into the regular price range over time. The trick will be the semi. I guess we’ll see in a month and a half. I am more interested in the announcement than in the deployment.

As I said I fully expect them to make the Roadrunner batteries right beside the Cybertruck truck. As for the Semi, it's super low volume but takes 10x the batteries of a Model S per truck which is why I put it after Model S/X. If they have the volume and the production line(Semi) then it could be opposite. But until Berlin is operational, don't expect it to go into high volume vehicles even for a premium.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

As I said I fully expect them to make the Roadrunner batteries right beside the Cybertruck truck. As for the Semi, it's super low volume but takes 10x the batteries of a Model S per truck which is why I put it after Model S/X. If they have the volume and the production line(Semi) then it could be opposite. But until Berlin is operational, don't expect it to go into high volume vehicles even for a premium.

We’ll see...

 

[maconjt]

I fully agree. The Cybertruck and Semi will need to take priority for production once the factory is completed. If they have a 50% take rate as I predict that means roughly 400k CT orders are sitting in the Q right now.

Its too bad the Model Y has such a premium price point as it looks, drives and feels pretty amazing. The car would be back ordered for a year if they could magically bring the price down to $39,900. My hunch is that Tesla will be adding a lower price point version of the Y down the road even though he recently stated otherwise. Tesla will need to if they want to keep the production lines running after the early adopters get their long range and performance versions.

CNBC...

“On Sunday, CEO Elon Musk said the company was canceling plans to produce a less-expensive standard-range version of the crossover SUV, saying that its expected range of less than 250 miles would be “unacceptably low.”

Now, the lowest-priced Model Y, the long-range all-wheel drive version, starts at $49,990, according to Tesla’s website. The standard-range version would have started at $39,000.

The Model Y moves indicate demand for Tesla’s electric vehicles is flagging in the company’s home base of the United States, said Vicki Bryan, CEO of investment research firm Bond Angle.“

Agreed!! The CT and Semi should take priority over anything. I believe these are the types of vehicles that people want!