Surprise of May 2021? It sure won't be about the Cybertruck.
I have a feeling the initial production runs (the test models that go to Tesla employees for evaluation) might expose a few issues that need to be addressed, but after that I'm hoping that the CT can be rapidly produced in high volume. I believe it is designed specifically for that.
tl;dr: I agree, my extra two cents.
We would ALL love to see that happen. It cannot hurt to dream. I must admit that they are cranking pretty hard at GigaAustin right now. If it is possible to extrapolate based on progress there and in Berlin they might well start Model Y production around June and CT production 2-3 months after.
Best guess say the first 12 months of full on production, Giga Texas can produce 100,000 CyberTrucks. That looks like Jan 2022 to Dec 2022. So if you are in the first 100,000 on the reserve list, you are good. Of course there are 650,000 reservations. So the 2nd 100,000 buyers/customers will get theirs throughout 2023. Or maybe in 2023 they can produce 125-150,000 CTs. Still a lot of folks will be waiting close to the end of 2023 before they get their CT. Some it might be 2024. :-(
It seems possible they could start rolling out some early CTs in October-ish. I would guess some small batches in October / November. They don't actually have any production prototypes yet so that would seem to be when they will built. I am thinking a few thousand could go to customers in early December?
I'm probably wrong about this, but I thought the TX plant's first year of production was 50k vehicles; not all of which would be CTs.
Well, you forgot to factor in the priority of 3 different trims: tri, dual and single motor. As everyone is expecting, the higher end model, tri-motor is coming out first. Therefore, which trim you chose will significantly affect your actual delivery time. Only after that is determined, the RN queue of the same trim will come into play.
In school, there was those of us that studied only the night of the exam, and those that studied from the first day of semester. Looking at prototypes of CT and Rivian, I sensed the same difference. I hope, CT is not a pipe dream and some one is really working on it because I Need a vehicle now and holding off for another two to three years just to be disappointed is not going to be fun. My personal needs aside, with the size of the truck market in U.S. there is a lot riding on CT‘s success. This could make a significant dent in EV adoption.
If all Tesla can produce in the first year of production is 100,000 Cybertrucks, there will be a huge difference between supply and demand. People think current Tesla's don't depreciate much. If this happens, those first year models will resell for more than what we paid for them. I'm glad I ordered a 2nd CT, the resale of the first Dual motor may help pay for the 2nd Trimotor CT.
Only 50,000 in the first year? And if that includes both CTs and other models, than that would be pretty sobering for all of us on the wait list for a CyberTruck. Assuming they start rolling out Dec 2021, and 50,000 total Teslas in the first 12 months, maybe than 30,000 CTs in 2022? Man, that means I will get mine in 2024. Dang.
There may be a lot of things I worry about these days, but Tesla not delivering the Cybertruck isn’t even in the list. They have made much more complicated vehicles and even delivered them earlier than anticipated. I am confident that if Giga Austin was complete tomorrow they would be delivering Cybertruck in a few months.
