Cybertruck deliveries based on progress of Giga Texas

[intimidator]

Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer? Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.

Advertisement

 

[Faffle]

I think you are being overly optimistic about December. Remember, model Y is starting first. I hope you are right though.

 

[intimidator]

I think you are being overly optimistic about December. Remember, model Y is starting first. I hope you are right though.

So you are thinking Texas will start with pumping out Model Ys (and CTs) and thus not very many CyberTrucks in December 2021?

In that case, it will be well into 2023 before I get my CT. Definitely will need a bridge vehicle.
Not mad at anyone, but this is a long time to wait for a vehicle....

I do have an order in on a Rivian, and have a pretty low #, so that possible delivery is not too far off.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer? Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.

Two months ago I was negative on the progress at Giga Austin, but comparing to where Giga Berlin was at 5 months and where it is now, at 12 months, and extrapolating for Giga Austin, I think it is indeed possible that they can have Model Ys being built by mid summer (12 months). That is, I think I was wrong and happy to admit to it. So they could be working out the kinks in the CT production a month or so later, around September. I believe that they can start low-level CT production by the end of the year as originally stated. The bigger question will be when they can deliver large numbers of 4680 cells...

 

[Faffle]

So you are thinking Texas will start with pumping out Model Ys (and CTs) and thus not very many CyberTrucks in December 2021?

In that case, it will be well into 2023 before I get my CT. Definitely will need a bridge vehicle.
Not mad at anyone, but this is a long time to wait for a vehicle....

I do have an order in on a Rivian, and have a pretty low #, so that possible delivery is not too far off.

Don't base your plans on my feelings. I feel for anyone having to time it right.

 

[intimidator]

Two months ago I was negative on the progress at Giga Austin, but comparing to where Giga Berlin was at 5 months and where it is now, at 12 months, and extrapolating for Giga Austin, I think it is indeed possible that they can have Model Ys being built by mid summer (12 months). That is, I think I was wrong and happy to admit to it. So they could be working out the kinks in the CT production a month or so later, around September. I believe that they can start low-level CT production by the end of the year as originally stated. The bigger question will be when they can deliver large numbers of 4680 cells...

The supply constraint of 4680 cells is going to be something to watch. Will they be producing enough of them by January 2022 to ramp up production of the Cybertruck to 10,000 units a month?

Honestly, Tesla is pedaling as fast as any company in history in terms of ramping up. So, I don't see how Ford or GM are going to catch Tesla in the production of EVs. Ford/GM are several years behind in development both in terms of software and batteries. Not to mention converting factories to build the new EVs.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The supply constraint of 4680 cells is going to be something to watch. Will they be producing enough of them by January 2022 to ramp up production of the Cybertruck to 10,000 units a month?

Honestly, Tesla is pedaling as fast as any company in history in terms of ramping up. So, I don't see how Ford or GM are going to catch Tesla in the production of EVs. Ford/GM are several years behind in development both in terms of software and batteries. Not to mention converting factories to build the new EVs.

That Panasonic is going to make 4680 cells for Tesla should help them produce cells along with Fremont, should help. Giga Berlin is supposed to produce 4680 cells for Europe, and LG Chem and CATL are supposed to supply Asia so until they have a battery facility in Austin this will have to do.

 

[EVCanuck]

Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer? Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.

IMO, Rivian's depreciation rate after 2-3 years will be on par with luxury vehicles like BMW, MB

 

[Diehard]

If there is battery constraint, I have a feeling Tesla will prioritize model Y production over CT. They already know how to make it, and without the suspension, larger tires, ..... it probably have a higher profit margin than dual motor.

 

[Adamtbest]

My estimated delivery date is currently 2023. Hopefully it doesn't push people that made later reservations like me back even more. I'm ok with waiting, I can save up more for a down payment.

If we get to much into 2024 that could be a problem because I told my daughter she practice driving my Chevy I own now, I'll need another vehicle.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

My estimated delivery date is currently 2023. Hopefully it doesn't push people that made later reservations like me back even more. I'm ok with waiting, I can save up more for a down payment.

If we get to much into 2024 that could be a problem because I told my daughter she practice driving my Chevy I own now, I'll need another vehicle.

I’m in the back of the bus with you. Could buy a beater car for her or you until the CT is ready.

 

[drscot]

Looking at the videos of Giga Texas, and comparing those to Giga Berlin, is the realistic estimate that Texas will be finished by late Summer? Which could mean rolling some customers Cybertrucks out the door by Nov/Dec 2021?

I have seen shot in the dark estimates that in December '21 Tesla could produce/delivery 10,000 Cybertrucks for the month.

With a WAG that Texas will then be able to produce 120-130,000 Cybertrucks in 2022.

Assuming out of the 600,000 per orders, about half drop out when their # is called, and we use a factor of Pi, then substract windspeed, is it fair to say if your # is 325,000, expect delivery some time in 2023?

......Might be enough time to take delivery of a Rivian, enjoy it for 2 years, then trade "up" to the Cybertruck.

I heard that actual non-prototype deliveries of Rivien would be rolling off the production line in time for Christmas of 2025, to coincide with Dec 25. A meaningless but neat marketing ploy so you can get a Christmas card from your Lovie and hope it has no further delays. I'm waiting and saving for my CT. Besides, CT is way cooler whether it is delivered on Christmas Day or not!

 

[intimidator]

I heard that actual non-prototype deliveries of Rivian would be rolling off the production line in time for Christmas of 2025, to coincide with Dec 25. A meaningless but neat marketing ploy so you can get a Christmas card from your Lovie and hope it has no further delays. I'm waiting and saving for my CT. Besides, CT is way cooler whether it is delivered on Christmas Day or not!

Christmas 2025? Wow.
PS I like the Rivian because they actually have prototypes running around North America, and start deliveries in late June 2021.
I like the CyberTruck because it is bad ass and has a 500 mile range. But, my fear is it is a couple of years away.

 

[intimidator]

My estimated delivery date is currently 2023. Hopefully it doesn't push people that made later reservations like me back even more. I'm ok with waiting, I can save up more for a down payment.

If we get to much into 2024 that could be a problem because I told my daughter she practice driving my Chevy I own now, I'll need another vehicle.

If "my" CyberTruck is not available for delivery until late 2023, I sure will need another vehicle as well.

 

[T3slaDad]

I'm still holding on for the surprise of May '21! Let's goooo!!!!

Yes, I know that likely won't happen. ?