Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Ehninger1212]

Do you have to break in a Tesla like you do a gas vehicle?

Nope.. Hammer down right off the lot.. heck do it in lot if you are feeling dangerous

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[Jhodgesatmb]

Good question and will wait to hear the answer from someone in the know. I have not come across anyone saying anything about that even when a Tesla was just delivered.

Breakin was historically for the piston rings, gaskets, and seals. For the most part these don’t exist in an EV. What I meant is that I would want to give it a 500-mile trial period around home to make sure everything is ok before the trip. A sanity check if you will.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Breakin was historically for the piston rings, gaskets, and seals. For the most part these don’t exist in an EV. What I meant is that I would want to give it a 500-mile trial period around home to make sure everything is ok before the trip. A sanity check if you will.

In-case the front falls off?

 

[WhoWhatWhere]

So I'm way late to the game and recently put my order in for the dual motor CT on August 8, 2020. My estimated position is 688,XXX. Estimated delivery is December 2023. What are these numbers based on? Can this be relatively accurate or is there a lot of slop?

 

[MUSK007]

You might see yours sometime late 2024.

 

[Crissa]

There are still pumps and coolant that need to be checked at break-in. And to make sure nothing is vibrating loose.

But it's much less for an EV than ICE.

-Crissa

 

[CyberMoose]

So I'm way late to the game and recently put my order in for the dual motor CT on August 8, 2020. My estimated position is 688,339. Estimated delivery is December 2023. What are these numbers based on? Can this be relatively accurate or is there a lot of slop?

The estimate is based on your information such as what you are ordering (Cybertruck), the option (dual motor), your reservation and a few other small details that I don't think will factor in too much and then it calculates an estimated delivery date based on the other information.

The other information probably being when they suspect production to begin, they are estimating how many of these reservations are actually Cybertruck (from our collective input), they obviously know that most trimotors will be done before dualmotors and then single motors.

The production speed is probably assumed to be similar to that of their other cars, but this will definitely be different since it's so different than anything else. You could see it being made faster since the line should be shorter, or it could be made slower depending how fast the machines can work with the metal.

Then we also have to factor in the material that isn't standard on the other cars which is their own stainless steel and armor glass, all of this is made for SpaceX and we don't know how fast they can Supply these for the Cybertruck, but I would assume it will be enough to meet how fast the size of a factory they are building will be able to make the Cybertrucks.

They would also have to estimate just how many people are going to cancel their Cybertruck orders. Some people ordered a couple or even all three and will decide how many motors they want in the future. There are also a lot of people who said they like that they have time to save up for a Cybertruck, which means there is a possibility they won't save up enough. Some people might not be eligible for financing, some people might move overseas, also there are a lot of people who preordered outside of North America and I don't think there is an guarantee that Cybertruck will be delivered anywhere but North America until there is a smaller Cybertruck made.

So to answer your question, the estimate doesn't really mean a whole lot right now but i'm sure the estimates that this website is giving will get better overtime, especially after production begins. I would expect that enough people are going to cancel their order or not be able to get financing and you might see yours around a half a year after the dual motor production begins.

 

[CyberMoose]

Another factor that I didn't mention is there is still the unknown factor of the 'plaid' Cybertruck. If this is announced anytime before people enter an actual contract to buy a Cybertruck, you will probably see tons of Cancelations (depending on price). Although I would probably still get my TriMotor and then trade it in for the Plaid. I really don't want to wait any longer than the 2 years for my Cybertruck.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

There are still pumps and coolant that need to be checked at break-in. And to make sure nothing is vibrating loose.

But it's much less than for an EV.

-Crissa

Right. That is what I meant.

Do you mean that it is much less for an EV or much less than for an ICE. Friday’s...you gotta love ‘em!

 

[BillyGee]

So I'm way late to the game and recently put my order in for the dual motor CT on August 8, 2020. My estimated position is 688,339. Estimated delivery is December 2023. What are these numbers based on? Can this be relatively accurate or is there a lot of slop?

It's basically a guess, despite the best efforts of the spreadsheet cooks. People have placed mY orders and had them fulfilled in a few weeks even though there are still people waiting on their who reserved it back on release. It's a crapshoot and Tesla will ultimately release in the order they see fit.

 

[WhoWhatWhere]

It's basically a guess, despite the best efforts of the spreadsheet cooks. People have placed mY orders and had them fulfilled in a few weeks even though there are still people waiting on their who reserved it back on release. It's a crapshoot and Tesla will ultimately release in the order they see fit.

Thanks. I've been thinking about changing up to the trimotor and just switched a few minutes ago. This will speed up delivery and not to torpedo this thread but I live in central NY and I've had a growing concern over winter range.

 

[Daweism]

So I'm way late to the game and recently put my order in for the dual motor CT on August 8, 2020. My estimated position is 688,339. Estimated delivery is December 2023. What are these numbers based on? Can this be relatively accurate or is there a lot of slop?

Tesla could roll out delivery by zone. For instance I'm in the 600k, but I live in Austin, there is a chance I could be one of the firsts if Tesla decides to deliver Cybertruck orders by territories, which logistically makes sense.

 

[Blue Steel]

I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?

This was posted on June 29th. Bigsur raised some legitimate concerns. It's pretty amazing to see where we are at today, not even 2 months later.
-Buy the land for the terrafactory CHECK
-Environmental Impact Study approval CHECK (at least enough for work to begin)
-Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals CHECK (at least enough for work to begin)
-design, bid, construct IN PROGRESS
-utility infrastructure IN PROGRESS
-hire & train factory personnel IN PROGRESS
-figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel I think this is a non-issue
-how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now
IN PROGRESS

Makes me interested to see where this project will be at 2 months from now...

 

[CyberMoose]

Tesla could roll out delivery by zone. For instance I'm in the 600k, but I live in Austin, there is a chance I could be one of the firsts if Tesla decides to deliver Cybertruck orders by territories, which logistically makes sense.

That's something I also thought about and I think it will be a combination of reservation and zone. If you have a lot of people from an area further away, enough to fill a transporter truck or a rail car on a train, i think they will send their Cybertrucks before people further down the list, even if they live at the closest delivery point.

But Transportation logistics is a complex system for any company, I don't think anyone in any area can assume they will get it sooner, later, or even at the expected delivery time for their spot in the reservation. We will just have to see.

 

[Daweism]

That's something I also thought about and I think it will be a combination of reservation and zone. If you have a lot of people from an area further away, enough to fill a transporter truck or a rail car on a train, i think they will send their Cybertrucks before people further down the list, even if they live at the closest delivery point.

But Transportation logistics is a complex system for any company, I don't think anyone in any area can assume they will get it sooner, later, or even at the expected delivery time for their spot in the reservation. We will just have to see.

True, but living in Austin definitely has a more optimistic outlook for getting it sooner at around the same reservation numbers vs someone living in say CA or NY.