Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Cybergirl]

I'm really hoping they can get one assembly line up at Fremont or Nevada prior to Texas/OK factory being done. This way they can optimize and have all the kinks worked out prior, and have the new factory ready to crank out volume from the start... Why wouldn't that an option?

I like that idea, assuming that the construction of the main factory in Austin or Tulsa is the long pole of the tent (on the critical path of the project). It could also be the availability of the next generation batteries needed to deliver on Cybertruck's specs. I don't think it's installing and testing the manufacturing line itself. The production process is greatly simplified by the elimination of body panel stamping and body painting. If there's not enough room within Giga 1, they move assembly to a sprung structure like what's being done in Fremont and Boca. The lessons learned would be invaluable.

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[TyPope]

Since the installation of paint booths and all the other equipment at the factory can be done in parallel, the equipment installation time will not be slowed by adding paint booths. while the CT won't need a paint booth, the other lines that will be produced there will. Also keep in mind that the absence of a paint requirement will NOT speed up production nor will the lack of stampings. Yes, production will be more simple, but it will not be faster.

Tesla should be capable of producing one vehicle every 54 seconds from each line they have running. This isn't to say that they will, just that they could.

 

[Dixon1430]

There are so many unknowns, any prediction for a timetable is purely speculative.

1. We don't know what we will find out on battery day (May alleviate battery constraint)
2. Each Gigafactory they build is built faster than the previous one (Germany is currently on a faster timeline than Shanghai, which was faster than Nevada) Yes I get it, different countries... But still.
3. I believe they are already familiar with producing stainless steel (SpaceX)?

Also, I don't know this for sure... maybe one of you will but I believe that currently production constraint for tesla right now is the speed of the production lines? Not necessarily battery production? I know it has been in the past but is it now? If this was currently still true then they would not be moving forward on Semi production.

Shanghai was ground breaking to production in under a year, we'll see what Berlin is...

We have to wait either way, I just plan on being a little more optimistic until I have a solid reason to believe that the timeline has changed.

 

[TyPope]

There are so many unknowns, any prediction for a timetable is purely speculative.

1. We don't know what we will find out on battery day (May alleviate battery constraint)
2. Each Gigafactory they build is built faster than the previous one (Germany is currently on a faster timeline than Shanghai, which was faster than Nevada) Yes I get it, different countries... But still.
3. I believe they are already familiar with producing stainless steel (SpaceX)?

Also, I don't know this for sure... maybe one of you will but I believe that currently production constraint for tesla right now is the speed of the production lines? Not necessarily battery production? I know it has been in the past but is it now? If this was currently still true then they would not be moving forward on Semi production.

Shanghai was ground breaking to production in under a year, we'll see what Berlin is...

We have to wait either way, I just plan on being a little more optimistic until I have a solid reason to believe that the timeline has changed.

The GM plant, built in 1982 was capable of producing one vehicle every 52 seconds. We ran it at 54 seconds. I doubt manufacturing equipment has been made that is less capable. Now, if a factory isn't optimized through good Industrial Engineering, it may not be able to go that fast but still, Tesla can surely produce at least that fast now... Maybe not much faster because each station has to be faster than that 54 seconds... or they have to double up longer stations... like two crews of people installing seats... Crew A installs all the even numbered vehicles that come down the line while Crew B does the odd ones. This way, they can spend 108 seconds installing/moving to the next vehicle. Anyway, that's 533 per 8 hours of line time... about 1,000 per day per line working 2 8-hour shifts.

 

[jerhenderson]

Let see what happens if Tesla raises the deposit to 2,500.00

wonder how many will cancel then?

I'll add $2400 to my deposit.

 

[Jimo]

this Is all really disappointing and I Believe it has been in the back of all our minds, i Cant really think of a plus except I will be able to save more money to put down without touching any savings. But I will probably loose my sanity waiting.

Don't "loose" your sanity! Tighten it before you lose it.

 

[colemanlewis]

I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?

The Cybertruck won't require the gigantic machinery that is required for conventional car construction. It won't need much floor space. I believe it will be the first of a new generation of vehicles, and that Tesla will use a similar manufacturing technology for the planned "volkswagon" (car for the masses) that will probably be manufactured in Texas. They have already perfected "the machine that builds the machine" and a lot of that knowledge and experience will hasten the progress in Texas. I expect that gas buggies will be little more than a memory by the end of this decade. The world is about to change. We are witnessing a new industrial revolution that is built on computer technology that was never possible before.

 

[CyberMike]

I’m old (70 this year) but young at heart. I want to enjoy this truck for a while before my family gets it.

 

[mrbulk]

I’m old (70 this year) but young at heart. I want to enjoy this truck for a while before my family gets it.

I'll be 68 in Oct. and my wants are the same as yours. I want to drive it around a bit before the kids drive it through a house or something...

 

[Da-Funk Boogie]

I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?

I totally agree with you!

 

[Nikki2]

Once the CT giga factory opens it will be pushing out new CTs very fast. The build time on the new CT will be half the build time on the current Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. It may take more than 18 months to open the new factory but with much shorter manufacturing time and a very fast ramp up to high production levels will allow cars to be delivered at high rates in mid 2022. That's my prediction

 

[jthor]

Also keep in mind that the absence of a paint requirement will NOT speed up production nor will the lack of stampings. Yes, production will be more simple, but it will not be faster.

Okay, all of that is just completely false. Simpler production operations without a doubt make the make the vehicle faster to produce and cheaper to produce too. Simpler operations to produce also make it a lot easier to automate production.

 

[Teslaman]

Ok, ok. We all have our opinions on when production is going to start but who’s willing to put their money where their mouth is! Lol.

In order to help keep us entertained during the next year, how about a google spreadsheet with everyone’s wager!

I’ll put up a bottle of Kentucky’s finest... A bottle of Woodford Reserve and I’ll say that production and delivery 100% starts in 2021!!

If anyone wants to offer something and take this bet, I’ll put together a spreadsheet.

Do not want to bet against something I want to happen, but OK,. A bottle of my best, Cabernet Sauvignon 2013 (Best of Class 2016 SF Chronicle).

Scott

 

[Hookalakupua]

Scott,

DEAL!! and if you’re in the Bay Area and I win, I’ll even drive the truck down to you to collect and we’ll share a glass in the CT together! My number has me in the first few hundred and I’m here in Reno, NV.

 

[LoreZyra]

I wish they would expand the Gigafactory 1's parking lot and build that out for a Cybertruck area. Didn't they say that was the plan for Gigafactory 1 was to expand a bit?

I completely agree with OP, with permit approval and BS like that, no way they can finish it at 18 months. If they already started breaking ground, maybe. I think Covid really threw a curveball, they just haven't confirmed the delay yet. Sucks.

Saw somewhere that the city permits for Fremont were already filed to build out the 2F level for that factory.