Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[Hookalakupua]

Just curious, what's the negative of living in Sparks? Looks like a nice place.

Sparks is located just North East of Reno and like Reno, it’s seeing a massive growth in population. From world class mountain biking, skiing, and Lake Tahoe, along with no State Tax amongst the many perks, Sparks/Reno is a great place to live. With a huge influx of people moving in from California, it’s unfortunately starting to resemble California. With Panasonic, Apple and several other major Silicon Valley companies coming to the area, a lack of quality workers is definitely not an issue.

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[VolklKatana]

Unless you count the Semi, the Roadster, the Tesla Roof, the Tesla Solar Panels, the new battery lines, ... Big plate, Tesla has.

[/QUOTE]
Guess I should have said new design products or new product offerings...

 

[Ehninger1212]

Just curious, what's the negative of living in Sparks? Looks like a nice place.

Idk, all im saying is there is clearly a reason why Tesla decided to build a new factory vs expand the existing factory.

One other thought is simply the supply chain between the Cybertruck and SpaceX.

 

[Celeste]

Sheesh. I don’t want to wait. Can’t you at least pretend to be more optimistic for the rest of us? Life has been depressing enough lately...

/ 2023 would be great for me. My Dodge Ram and Camaro would be paid off by then and suitable down payment saved up.

 

[Rthardison]

If you believe most investment sources, I have some good land for sale in lower Louisiana.

My biggest worry at this point is what if Elon Musk is ousted as CEO as so many investment news sources have speculated? Would this mean that the Cybertruck project could be canceled for being too "risky"? As we already know, most normal and boring car companies have conservative board members who don't like innovation. That's why most modern cars look alike. Any thoughts?

 

[Rthardison]

I think Q4 2021 is doable. Remember, you only have to manufacture 10 Trucks by Dec 30 to meet that goal. They may be mostly hand made like the first 30 Model 3 vehicles were in 2017.

 

[SantasCybertruck]

I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?

GERMANY is FAR WORSE THAN TEXAS with restrictions and the Berlin Gigafactory build is AHEAD of CHINA at this point and will be production ready with 1 year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

GERMANY is FAR WORSE THAN TEXAS with restrictions and the Berlin Gigafactory build is AHEAD of CHINA at this point and will be production ready with 1 year.

I think they can start making CTs about a year after they break ground based on the other Giga factories they have built and on the simpler tooling and production requirements of the CT. No stamping. No painting. They already have automated welding and they know everything about EV drivetrains and batteries.

 

[MUSK007]

It’s one thing to come out with a prototype, but it’s another thing to mass produce a vehicle that is brand new, ready to go, and not face recall issues, build quality issues etc. If it was easy, Ford and GM would have already done it. I see the CT as a very important product to the continued success of Tesla. Very important. Because of the hype, it has to be ‘’Right’’ when they start releasing them. 2023 hopefully will be the year. It wont happen in 2021 or 2022.

 

[RonM]

It’s one thing to come out with a prototype, but it’s another thing to mass produce a vehicle that is brand new, ready to go, and not face recall issues, build quality issues etc. If it was easy, Ford and GM would have already done it. I see the CT as a very important product to the continued success of Tesla. Very important. Because of the hype, it has to be ‘’Right’’ when they start releasing them. 2023 hopefully will be the year. It wont happen in 2021 or 2022.

Randy be careful of what you say, not till 2023! You'll start riots in the streets! Remember all CTs matter!

 

[MUSK007]

Very funny. I like it. But... just being realistic.

 

[Hungedu]

If you believe most investment sources, I have some good land for sale in lower Louisiana.

I'm always skeptical of investment news sources, and I'd never buy Louisiana land from somebody in Tennessee.

 

[BillyGee]

Very funny. I like it. But... just being realistic.

I remain optimistic, but I think you're right about the "full scale" production not being for a while. The target is something like 1,000 vehicles a day, which even if they have trucks coming off the line the last quarter of 2021 it will mostly be hand assembled like the M3 was.

Ideally the ball will be rolling in late 2021, if only slowly.

 

[Cybergirl]

For the past couple of years that I've been following Tesla, I've seen how people have continually underestimated Elon Musk. It seems that no matter how often he amazes us with his engineering brilliance, marketing magic, and industrial prowess, we keep doubting the man. I have no basis for predicting when the first Cybertrucks will roll off the assembly line, but I do believe it will be as early as humanly possible. Elon has an uncanny ability to identify and eliminate obstacles before they even materialize. He's farsighted and decisive, but unafraid to change direction quickly if circumstances require. His honesty and transparency enhance his credibility and feed into the trust that people afford him. Add to that his ability to attract very capable and dedicated people to work for him means that he's able to accomplish goals that seem to others impossible. No matter how bleak the prospects may appear at this early stage, I'm holding out to take delivery on my Cybertruck 1Q22.

 

[Sasmania]

I'm really hoping they can get one assembly line up at Fremont or Nevada prior to Texas/OK factory being done. This way they can optimize and have all the kinks worked out prior, and have the new factory ready to crank out volume from the start... Why wouldn't that an option?