Tesla Analyst Estimates 'Staggering' 650K Cybertruck Preorders

[TyPope]

I think the ramp up will be much faster with the CT. NO painting, NO stamping, Plug in wiring harness, far more experience in streamlining factory layout. They will ramp up to 10,000 units per week within 6 months and be able to produce over 300,000 units in first 52 weeks.

I agree with this if they work two shifts and do maintenance during the off 8 hr periods.

(former industrial engineer who worked for GM Shreveport Truck Assembly Plant)

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[cyberhunter]

The tracker is up North of 800k reservations. By the time Tesla starts production, it could be approaching 1M reservations. If there is a 40% to 50% conversion rate, we still are North of 400k CTs that need to be delivered.

If the initial reviews from customers come out solid on fit/finish, range, and towing experiences, we could see higher than 50% conversion rate on reservations. I expect that it will take 2 years to fill all the reservations and that doesn't include new orders after production starts.

Of course all of that is predicated on the CT meeting or exceeding the lofty expectations that reveal day set. If the CT falls short of the specs put out or it looks like the fit and finish suck, I could see a bunch of people falling off the reservation list and waiting for the production to get ironed out.

We can't forget the limiting factor on completing the orders will likely be batteries. CT will be competing with the other models for batteries. The M3 is hugely popular and the MY will be taking on a bunch of orders. If they are all using the same battery tech, then this will be the reason that CT giga/terra factory will take a while to supply the backlog.

 

[RonM]

I figured if they cut the orders by 50%, start building early 4th quarter, I could get mine on my 75 birthday in 2022! Damn! All these number, predictions and new photos are making me crazy

 

[PressureCooker 45]

it think its really hard to say how many will actually buy (50% seems about right).
BUT one thing they never note on these reservation numbers is the fact that MANY people reserve 2 or even 3, because of the 3 configurations. I myself reserved 2 (but will only be buying 1), because I haven't decided if I want the single or duel motor. it just seems easier than changing from 1 to the other when my mind changes.

You can go in and edit your purchase. I started out with a dual motor and changed to a tri motor

 

[Bigvbear]

I think the biggest issue with the CT is the not yet built factory to produce it. They have not even officially selected the site yet. Figure 12-18 months for that building to get built, then set up, operational, and tooled for production.
I am sure a purpose built factory (instead of retofitting an existing one) will be more efficient, once its in production. They have also learned lessons from the model 3 and Y which they will apply to a new factory.

 

[TruckMaster]

If I remember correctly from one of Sandy Munro's videos, he anticipates a quick ramp up due to less production time frame on the truck.

 

[Idaho_7]

It's interesting how the CT changes a mindset of many years. The 5 year old work truck currently owned is in great shape and already has a buyer when the CT order arrives. If something should force the need to purchase another work truck before the CT is available, that purchase would be an older, easily resalable used truck simply to bridge the gap.

A few people have already approached wanting to see and ride in the CT when it arrives. Potentially postponing their new purchases also.

 

[Sirfun]

It's interesting how the CT changes a mindset of many years. The 5 year old work truck currently owned is in great shape and already has a buyer when the CT order arrives. If something should force the need to purchase another work truck before the CT is available, that purchase would be an older, easily resalable used truck simply to bridge the gap.

A few people have already approached wanting to see and ride in the CT when it arrives. Potentially postponing their new purchases also.

This is the first wave of EV vehicle disruption. Not necessarily more EV sales, but people deciding not to buy a new ICE vehicle, saving their money for a purchase of an new EV.

 

[mattcatt]

Never would have thought a Londoner would be interested in the CT, that's interesting. Goes to show the broad appeal of the CT. The "funky(&completely guilt-free)", got chuckle from that

I should have mentioned that Germany, Switzerland, Austria will be interested in the utility of CT. I can see municipalities, police and Ski resorts in the Alps using CT. My thinking at first was just retail customers and not government agencies. The move to electric vehicles for environmental purposes is big in Europe.

Switzerland has a lot of Superchargers and is big on moving to electric vehicles.

Don't forget the great white north - 4x the population of Switzerland, and more wilderness than any other country in the world except Russia - we'll be ordering some of those CT for sure.

I think most here would want the dual for all wheel drive in snow and icey winter weather. A big factor will be what happens on battery day. We lose range due to cold weather in winter and also important; we don't want the locks to freeze closed - including the vault cover -

 

[TruckElectric]

Don't forget the great white north - 4x the population of Switzerland, and more wilderness than any other country in the world except Russia - we'll be ordering some of those CT for sure.

I think most here would want the dual for all wheel drive in snow and icey winter weather. A big factor will be what happens on battery day. We lose range due to cold weather in winter and also important; we don't want the locks to freeze closed - including the vault cover -

Sorry about that! You are so right how could I have left out Canada!

Here is something new concerning the battery.........

New software update that "warms up" the battery when approaching a charging station to speed up charge times.

Link: TESLA'S NEW SOFTWARE UPDATE BRINGS BATTERIES IN FROM THE COLD

Tesla is turning up the heat on its electric car batteries.

This week, Tesla started rolling out a new software update for its vehicles that will precondition the battery as it reaches a charger – Tesla-branded or otherwise. That means the vehicle will warm up the battery, enabling it to reach higher charging speeds, when the driver has inputted a charger as a destination. The update, reported by Electrek Thursday as rolling out to early access owners in North America, is version 2020.24.

The move could help alleviate one of the biggest issues about owning an electric vehicle. An Autolist survey in August 2019 found that nearly 30 percent of then-current car shoppers cited "how long they take to recharge" as a reason why they would not buy an electric vehicle. Tesla's stated goals, as outlined in the July 2016 master plan, is to convince more drivers to switch to electric vehicles and help power a shift to sustainable energy.

Reducing recharge times ranks alongside proposals like the long-range Model S and the cheaper-priced Model 3 as some of the ways Tesla is looking to alleviate buyers' concerns.

It's important to note that this preconditioning isn't new to the Tesla lineup. The firm first released details of the feature in March 2019, when it unveiled its third-generation supercharger network:

Beginning this week, Tesla is rolling out a new feature called On-Route Battery Warmup. Now, whenever you navigate to a Supercharger station, your vehicle will intelligently heat the battery to ensure you arrive at the optimal temperature to charge, reducing average charge times for owners by 25%.

Tesla claimed that, when paired with the new chargers, the feature could ultimately reduce battery times by half:

What's different with this new update is that the vehicle will now perform preconditioning when the in-car navigation system is driving toward a third-party charger. This functionality was originally restricted to Tesla's superchargers.

So why does heating the battery help? Because at colder temperatures, lithium ions inside the battery start to spike on the carbon anodes inside, instead of smoothly inserting themselves as they should. Researchers at Penn State realized back in October 2019 that they could push this to the limit, by heating a battery to 140 degrees Fahrenheit and charge in 10 minutes. Tesla's chargers can't quite reach that speed, but the firm claims its improvements should help car owners spend just 15 minutes at a supercharger.

The new improvement will enable owners to take advantage of a growing network of charging stations. One such supplier is EVgo, which announced in December 2019 that it would start fitting its approximately 750 stations in the United States with Tesla-compatible chargers. Tesla also sells a $450 CHAdeMO adaptor, which will enable it to charge from more networks like Electrify America.

Elsewhere in the update, Tesla has made some big changes:

• Improvements to the Dashcam Viewer.
• The built-in camera can now be used, with permission, to help Tesla collect data prior to a collision.
• Tesla owners can now disable the auto-lock feature if their car is at home.
• The software now offers more views of the vehicle's cameras, enabling access to video streams from side repeater cameras.
• Traffic light and stop sign detection appear to be rolling out to more markets.

THE INVERSE ANALYSIS – This new update will help Tesla owners make use of a growing number of third-party chargers. The supercharger network is already pretty prolific, with 17,467 stations globally, but an improvement like this could help Tesla owners fill in the gaps when traveling.

Source: INVERSE

 

[MUSK007]

For those who actually convert their deposit into an actual order, my prediction is you will, get your CT In 2023.

For all the reasons stated above, it’s is just wishful thinking to expect them any sooner.

 

[LarryCrain]

Any idea if:
1. Tesla will scrub the reservation list of multi-orders. I.e, every (non-fleet) buyer gets one before seconds
2. Will they allow sell/buy/trade Lower places In order?

 

[MUSK007]

Tesla will do what they do. We won’t be told. We wont have a say. You won’t be able to trade any reservation In a few years we will all know. Right now it’s all just speculation. Lots of dust in the air right now.

 

[mprimo]

that would be awesome to switch up. I reserved a Dual motor CT because I didn't want to wait until 2022 for production. I'd happily switch to the Tri-motor.

 

[Akgolf]

For those who actually convert their deposit into an actual order, my prediction is you will, get your CT In 2023.

For all the reasons stated above, it’s is just wishful thinking to expect them any sooner.

Works for me.

Our two cars are payed off early 2022. I can save those payments and put towards the Cybertruck.