Tesla Analyst Estimates 'Staggering' 650K Cybertruck Preorders

[TruckElectric]

I wonder if the preorders will reach 1 million before the Terafactory/Gigafactory Austin is completed ?

Tesla Analyst Estimates 'Staggering' 650K Cybertruck Preorders

Via: Benzinga

Tesla Analyst Estimates 'Staggering' 650K Cybertruck Preorders

June 22, 2020

One of the biggest potential catalysts for Tesla Inc in the next couple of years is the Cybertruck, and one analyst said on Monday he's cautiously optimistic Tesla’s first truck will be a big hit.

The Tesla Analyst: Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives reiterated his Neutral rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla.

The Tesla Thesis: Ives said the Cybertruck appears to be gaining momentum ahead of a 2021 or 2022 launch.

“We estimate that pre-order levels are staggering coming out of the gates since announced last year and currently stand north of 650k based on our estimate with momentum building for this latest Musk brainchild,” Ives wrote in a note.

Given initial demand for the Cybertruck appears significant, Ives said the next big news from the company regarding the Cybertruck could be the location for the Cybertruck factory. Ives said Austin, Texas and Tulsa, Oklahoma appear to be frontrunners at this point.

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[Mini2nut]

Impressive numbers but remember that reserving one simply takes a C-note. If the deposits were $2500 it would reflect serious buyers waiting in the wings. I predict around 50% of reservation holders will go their Tesla account and click on the refund button instead of following through with a purchase.

 

[Newton]

it think its really hard to say how many will actually buy (50% seems about right).
BUT one thing they never note on these reservation numbers is the fact that MANY people reserve 2 or even 3, because of the 3 configurations. I myself reserved 2 (but will only be buying 1), because I haven't decided if I want the single or duel motor. it just seems easier than changing from 1 to the other when my mind changes.

 

[TruckElectric]

Impressive numbers but remember that reserving one simply takes a C-note. If the deposits were $2500 it would reflect serious buyers waiting in the wings. I predict around 50% of reservation holders will go their Tesla account and click on the refund button instead of following through with a purchase.

May very well be that 50% cancel their orders. I am wondering how many orders will be from outside the U.S.A.? Australia seems like a place where the CT would be popular, very rugged/sturdy for the Outback.

Not sure about Europe, there are some trucks there but mostly for commercial use. But it would give the Unimog some serious competition for off road capabilities I think. Norway is really big on EV'S so I see some orders from there for sure.

Russia may be another country where the CT may become popular.


Yeah I'm thinking CT will be a worldwide phenomenon!

 

[dadmakefire]

What is our tracker up to?

 

[HBradley9637]

May very well be that 50% cancel their orders. I am wondering how many orders will be from outside the U.S.A.? Australia seems like a place where the CT would be popular, very rugged/sturdy for the Outback.

Not sure about Europe, there are some trucks there but mostly for commercial use. But it would give the Unimog some serious competition for off road capabilities I think. Norway is really big on EV'S so I see some orders from there for sure.

Russia may be another country where the CT may become popular.


Yeah I'm thinking CT will be a worldwide phenomenon!

Brit reservation holder here (& will most definitely be completing the purchase!). I'm not sure the traditional reasons for buying the CT apply here. I live in London which shouldn't be its traditional habitat, but the CT is so damn funky (& completely guilt-free), I wouldn't be surprised if the UK/EU market for it will be pretty strong, despite its size! The only problem may be the NCAP crash tests (particularly the pedestrian safety element) which are traditionally most stringent than in the US.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Impressive numbers but remember that reserving one simply takes a C-note. If the deposits were $2500 it would reflect serious buyers waiting in the wings. I predict around 50% of reservation holders will go their Tesla account and click on the refund button instead of following through with a purchase.

Plus all the people who bought multiple orders just because. But even if 50% drop off. Thats still 325K orders to fill, which will take them at least 2 years! Not to mention all the new orders once people actually ride in it.

 

[TruckElectric]

Brit reservation holder here (& will most definitely be completing the purchase!). I'm not sure the traditional reasons for buying the CT apply here. I live in London which shouldn't be its traditional habitat, but the CT is so damn funky (& completely guilt-free), I wouldn't be surprised if the UK/EU market for it will be pretty strong, despite its size! The only problem may be the NCAP crash tests (particularly the pedestrian safety element) which are traditionally most stringent than in the US.

Never would have thought a Londoner would be interested in the CT, that's interesting. Goes to show the broad appeal of the CT. The "funky(&completely guilt-free)", got chuckle from that

I should have mentioned that Germany, Switzerland, Austria will be interested in the utility of CT. I can see municipalities, police and Ski resorts in the Alps using CT. My thinking at first was just retail customers and not government agencies. The move to electric vehicles for environmental purposes is big in Europe.

Switzerland has a lot of Superchargers and is big on moving to electric vehicles.

 

[TruckElectric]

Plus all the people who bought multiple orders just because. But even if 50% drop off. Thats still 325K orders to fill, which will take them at least 2 years! Not to mention all the new orders once people actually ride in it.

2 years? Man, I hope not. If the factory is as big as what's being published I would hope they could get that many orders filled in less than a year.

 

[Ehninger1212]

2 years? Man, I hope not. If the factory is as big as what's being published I would hope they could get that many orders filled in less than a year.

From 08-31-2017 to 05-28-19 Tesla produced 267,670 model 3's. This was viewed as a difficult production ramp up with an already built and fully operational death star.. i mean factory. So yeah i think 2 years is a fair estimate. Although im hoping its Faster and the CT is a simple to manufacture as they are saying.

 

[Cybertrekker]

What is our tracker up to?

822k

 

[SantasCybertruck]

I think the ramp up will be much faster with the CT. NO painting, NO stamping, Plug in wiring harness, far more experience in streamlining factory layout. They will ramp up to 10,000 units per week within 6 months and be able to produce over 300,000 units in first 52 weeks.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I think the ramp up will be much faster with the CT. NO painting, NO stamping, Plug in wiring harness, far more experience in streamlining factory layout. They will ramp up to 10,000 units per week within 6 months and be able to produce over 300,000 units in first 52 weeks.

I like your optimism and i hope you are right but they still dont even produce that many model 3's a week. Maybe if you combine China and Fremont production.

 

[Jamminrio]

I like your optimism and i hope you are right but they still dont even produce that many model 3's a week. Maybe if you combine China and Fremont production.

I see SantasCybertruck has already said what I agree with, plus they will probably build the Giga factory faster than expected, Berlin at the moment is quicker than Shanghai. This will allow them to start production and ramp up sooner for 2022. The process of building the CT is greatly simplified, so yeah 10k/week for 9 months is what I predict.

 

[SONNYDUT]

I am committed to buy from beginning. My last new vehicle purchase of my lifetime. I predict the CT purchase will be higher the than 50%. FYI, You don't have to reserved all 3 variant then buy one in the end. As long as you have the reservation, you could select the one you want when time comes.