Nikola Badger pickup

[Dids]

I suppose I could put a picture of an electric chair to show how dangerous electricity is...

Yes you can, but this thread is about Badger and has morphed into a hydrogen discussion. With that picture I wanted to point out that hydrogen has been used for transportation before and also some of its challenges. Clearly a compressed tank is better than a huge gas bag in respect to explosions.

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[azjohn]

These companies have found the fuel cells less expensive and more efficient as the trucks don't have to spend hours in the battery room getting recharged.

Companies don't have to wait for batteries to charge, batteries that need to be charged can be removed and replaced with a fully charged battery at least with a battery powered forklift

 

[ajdelange]

Having been struggling with taking batteries in and out of my boat recently I got a good laugh out of that one. To be honest I've never taken the batteries out of a battery powered forklift so I'm not really qualified to say. But which is easier and faster and less expensive? Setting aside an area for charging with charging equipment with twice as many batteries as you need and meeting the saftey requirements for a charging room, deinstalling a set of really bulky batteries (these are not the little 30Ah batteries like the one in your S), moving them to the charging room, moving an equivalent number of batteries back to the vehicle and reinstalling them or going to a pump and plugging in the bowser for a minute or two? Common sense gives us the answer.

 

[ajdelange]

I didn't look at this closely until today

Taken From Ark Invest website:

A chart that shows relative costs but not relative revenues: The long pole in the tent is of course the cost of the hydrogen and attacking it is the long pole in Nikolas business plan. IMO their success or failure turns on this aspect of the plan. Assuming that the cost of hydrogen is now $14/kg to get the hydrogen fuel cost on the chart to parity with the electric energy on the chart would require hydrogen to be available at 14*73315/230637 = $4.45033, Note that Milton's target is $4 per kg. Can he do it? I'm sure I don't know.

More from ARK:

While hydrogen costs and hydrogen drivetrain inefficiencies are key to the difference between hydrogen fuel and electric truck costs, perhaps the more important competitive obstacle will be the infrastructure for hydrogen refueling which is an order of magnitude more expensive than charging stations for battery electric vehicles.

This is at least partially true and one of the reasons traditional (how can I speak of this new tech as traditional?) hydrogen powered consumer cars will never be available. Nikala has no plan to build an extensive network of refueling stations such as would be required of vehicles like the Mirai. It plans to build a limited number of charging stations at locations critical to the long haul trucking industry (and where plentiful electricity is available at wholesale prices). It then cleverly solves the Mirai market problem by giving its consumer vehicle the ability to more than adequately handle around town driving on its battery (charged by the usual Level 2 and Level 3 chargers) while still making the advantages of hydrogen available on road trips.

More from ARK:

Assuming incorrectly that most trucks max out on weight before running out of trailer space, advocates for hydrogen fuel cell trucks often claim that the weight of the batteries will limit the freight an electric truck can transport.

It is very disingenuous of them to try to conceal hydrogen's major advantage over electricity and that is its hugely greater specific energy. A thousand kg of battery at current levels holds less than 200 kWh of energy which is, in the Tesla Semi, worth about 100 miles. A thousand kg of battery displaces 1000 kg of payload so it is also disingenuous to leave this out of the chart and give it no mention but rather try to cover it up. It is also disingenuous to fail to mention that the Semi is a 300 or 500 mile vehicle and thus not useable in long haul trucking whereas Nikola is promising 500 - 750.

ARK:

ARK will be surprised if Nikola ever delivers a single fuel cell truck.

Despite all my rebuttals above I guess I will be too but I no longer think of Nikola as a joke.

 

[Crissa]

Nikola isn't waiting for hydrogen to be cheap: Their plan is to manufacture it. It's a little chicken-and-egg problem; you can't effectively use the mass-production without a market and the market needs the efficient production.

I don't think they'll do it, either, because it's two things at once. But it's not a nutty plan for big vehicles. (Especially like ships or trains)

-Crissa

 

[Newton]

Question, is it entirely unreasonable to think making and compressing hydrogen cant be a small scale thing?

I know nothing about it, but I would think one could make a device to do it for around $20k electrolysis -> collect-> freeze and compress.

 

[ajdelange]

Leaving the technical problems aside I'd say that if it costs $14/kg with all the econimies of scale associated with a large production facility that it would cost a lot more at residential scale. Assuming you could get all the scale savings and electricity at 4¢ to run the electrolyzer you would be down to the $4/kg that Nikola hopes for. This calculates to be equivalent to SC prices for energy which are at least twice what you pay at home.

 

[Crissa]

Leaving the technical problems aside I'd say that if it costs $14/kg with...

...With current technology, which purchases natural gas at market rates and then uses energy to crack it for a relatively minor market that doesn't have much market competition.

The idea is to escape that market by making something there's a profit at the lower price point. Market rates aren't the same as profit points.

Electrolysis is mostly cheap, the problem is that it takes time and then needs a market to sell it. Hydrogen is hard to store and even harder to invest in; why invest in holding it around when you can make more money not doing that?

See also unfinished hydrogen-highway stations and empty stations - they're making money, but not by selling the product.

-Crissa

 

[azjohn]

Having been struggling with taking batteries in and out of my boat recently I got a good laugh out of that one. To be honest I've never taken the batteries out of a battery powered forklift so I'm not really qualified to say. But which is easier and faster and less expensive? Setting aside an area for charging with charging equipment with twice as many batteries as you need and meeting the saftey requirements for a charging room, deinstalling a set of really bulky batteries (these are not the little 30Ah batteries like the one in your S), moving them to the charging room, moving an equivalent number of batteries back to the vehicle and reinstalling them or going to a pump and plugging in the bowser for a minute or two? Common sense gives us the answer.

A company I had worked for had both propane and battery powered forklifts. They had 8 battery powered lifts both 50 and 80 size. An area was designated outside that was covered was for battery changing and had racks for batteries and chargers. There is also a battery changing machine that looks like a powered pallet jack that lifts the battery and moves to a rack( its a 5-10 minute job) Problem with not removing batteries is that once the battery is depleted and needs to be charged you can't wait till it is charged, you still need to use the forklift.

I do agree the propane tanks were easier to change out, but I did prefer the battery powered lifts

 

[moychamoy]

Anyone think the new badger will give the CT a run? Will have to wait and see price and delivery dates but if those are similar to CT, I might have a difficult decision.

https://nikolamotor.com/badger

Trevor Milton actually said that the unveil of the Nikola Badger was just to give the stock a boost, don't really think that they will ever produce it. Nikola is just a Bubble, thats why they reverse merged and wanted to IPO as quickly as possible...

 

[mrbulk]

If and when Nikola ever builds a working EV for public sale is when I will believe any of Trevor Milton's hype. Last I recall, he doesn't have working, drivable prototypes of Any vehicle.

 

[ajdelange]

Trevor Milton actually said that the unveil of the Nikola Badger was just to give the stock a boost, don't really think that they will ever produce it. Nikola is just a Bubble, thats why they reverse merged and wanted to IPO as quickly as possible...

I'm not sure he said it but it certainly has been said. There is also a story going around that he offered the design to Elon.

In any case the response has evidently been pretty enthusiastic even at the level of the deposit required at the initial round. AND if you order one you get to see the prototype this fall so we will know pretty soon whether there is really anything behind that curtain.

 

[Newton]

June 9 2020:
Nikola motors seems like a scam.

The only ev specific company other than tesla that I actually expect to get to market is Rivian.

Well perhaps with exceptions for very low volume super car type vehicles

It appears I called it, about Nikola, i give reading's for $500, contact my people

 

[msmirnov86]

RIP badger. Or should I say roadkill?

 

[Cyberman]

Well, now that all the wind has blown out of the sails of the Nikola company as a whole, it's safe to say that hydrogen is yesterdays fuel. In the early 80's I remember seeing a TV show called "Fire in the water", all about the fuel of the future, I was amazed to learn how clean it is, the only by-product coming out of the tailpipe of a hydrogen car was water vapor, "clean enough to drink" (for the dog, maybe). But that was 40 years ago. The age of hydrogen came and went, no significant infrastructure was ever built, too little too late. Electric is here now. If there were something better, Elon would use it.