Nikola Badger pickup

[ajdelange]

However, rumor has it that there are only a hand full of people out there that can out-Elon Elon and Milton is, by his own account, one of them...

If he brings his business plan to fruition then I think we are going to have to admit that he has done exactly that.

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[ldjessee]

If he brings his business plan to fruition then I think we are going to have to admit that he has done exactly that.

Yes, but how is he going to supply hydrogen to even a 100 locations in the next 3 years? Who is building and testing the hydrogen station prototypes? What local and federal approvals has he gotten? Has he started to buy land or get an agreement from truck stops to put in this untested/unproven/unapproved hydrogen generation equipment?

If he can make it work, great, but I think ocean going container ships would be a better use case for hydrogen... And I am not even sure about that.

 

[ajdelange]

Yes, but how is he going to supply hydrogen to even a 100 locations in the next 3 years?

If I could answer that question I wouldn't. I'd quietly log onto eTrade and buy a whole bunch of the stock.

Who is building and testing the hydrogen station prototypes? What local and federal approvals has he gotten? Has he started to buy land or get an agreement from truck stops to put in this untested/unproven/unapproved hydrogen generation equipment?

A whole bunch more of questions I can't answer but I believe he has ordered a fairly large number of hydrolyzers from a Danish (?) company.

If he can make it work, great, but I think ocean going container ships would be a better use case for hydrogen... And I am not even sure about that.

I think marine will be an application for sure but consider the similarities between long haul trucks and ships. They both run regular routes between a small number of designated points each of which is in an industrial setting. Don't know if I mentioned it before but Whole Foods and Amazon (?) both use hydrogen fueled vehicles in their warehouses. Again, the fueling is done in the same industrial setting each time.

 

[ldjessee]

I think marine will be an application for sure but consider the similarities between long haul trucks and ships. They both run regular routes between a small number of designated points each of which is in an industrial setting. Don't know if I mentioned it before but Whole Foods and Amazon (?) both use hydrogen fueled vehicles in their warehouses. Again, the fueling is done in the same industrial setting each time.

I did not know that about Amazon & Whole Foods.

 

[ajdelange]

Actually it was not Whole Foods that I was thinking of (though it is owned by Amazon). It was Walmart that I had in mind. Also we should note that in an enclosed area like a warehouse ICE is out of the question so it is batteries or fuel cells. These companies have found the fuel cells less expensive and more efficient as the trucks don't have to spend hours in the battery room getting recharged.

 

[ajdelange]

Norwegian company on the hydrolyzers:

Oslo, 28 June 2018) Nel ASA (Nel, OSE: NEL) has been awarded a contract for delivery of 448 electrolyzers and associated fueling equipment to Nikola Motor Company (Nikola) as part of Nikola’s development of a hydrogen station infrastructure in the US for truck and passenger vehicles. Under the multi-billion NOK contract, to be deployed from 2020, Nel will deliver up to 1 GW of electrolysis plus fueling equipment. The company reiterates a potential major expansion of the production capacity at Notodden to accommodate the contract order.

 

[SSonnentag]

Hydrogen's Achilles heel is refueling. In North America, you're pretty much out of luck unless you live along the Reno/Sacramento/San Francisto/Los Angeles/San Diego route. Everywhere else you're limited to public charging infrastructure, which isn't very good for non-Teslas yet (North America).

Also, at $14/kg, that's $112 to refuel that 300 miles of hydrogen range. That would be the equivalent of paying roughly $0.93/kWh by my guesstimate (10X what I pay for electricity here in Arizona).

 

[ajdelange]

I think we all accept that the California model for consumer cars was a failure and we all know why. Nikola is not basically interested in selling cars or trucks. It is interested in selling hydrogen. It's business plan calls for production of hydrogen for sale at $4/kg which would make it competitive with diesel for long haul trucking. If he can do that it would, by your reasoning, be equivalent to 4*93/14 = 26.5714¢/kWh which is about what you will pay for a charge at a SC or other fast DC charger. But what about the paucity of fueling stations? Well the Badger isn't a conventional FCEV - it is an FCEV with a huge battery, one good for 300 miles. I quite happily drove a Model X with an EPA range of a bit less than that. As is the case for nearly all drivers for the vast majority of my driving that was plenty. The only time I wanted more was when on a long road trip. And where does one typically go on a road trip? Along major arteries which is where Milton plans to put hydrogen stations for refueling his long haul truck fleet. Stop at one of those and pick up 300 miles worth of hydrogen in 5 minutes and if you are willing to stick around a little longer another 300 worth of battery range for a total of 600. I think the scheme is Elon Musk level clever but I have as yet to see a truck, a fueling station or $4/kg hydrogen.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

I think we all accept that the California model for consumer cars was a failure and we all know why. Nikola is not basically interested in selling cars or trucks. It is interested in selling hydrogen. It's business plan calls for production of hydrogen for sale at $4/kg which would make it competitive with diesel for long haul trucking. If he can do that it would, by your reasoning, be equivalent to 4*93/14 = 26.5714¢/kWh which is about what you will pay for a charge at a SC or other fast DC charger. But what about the paucity of fueling stations? Well the Badger isn't a conventional FCEV - it is an FCEV with a huge battery, one good for 300 miles. I quite happily drove a Model X with an EPA range of a bit less than that. As is the case for nearly all drivers for the vast majority of my driving that was plenty. The only time I wanted more was when on a long road trip. And where does one typically go on a road trip? Along major arteries which is where Milton plans to put hydrogen stations for refueling his long haul truck fleet. Stop at one of those and pick up 300 miles worth of hydrogen in 5 minutes and if you are willing to stick around a little longer another 300 worth of battery range for a total of 600. I think the scheme is Elon Musk level clever but I have as yet to see a truck, a fueling station or $4/kg hydrogen.

So the plan is to take cheap electricity, turn it into more expensive hydrogen to run a fuel cell which converts that hydrogen into electricity to run the motor.
I’d rather just use the cheap electricity.

 

[Frank W]

Taken From Ark Invest website:


1. Nikola Plans to Enter the Market at an Uncompetitive Price Point
Founded to develop hydrogen fuel cell class 8 trucks, Nikola Motor Corporation made headlines this past week as its stock debuted via reverse merger and hit a $30 billion market cap, even though it has not produced one truck. Nikola aims to lower the cost of trucking. ARK’s research suggests, however, that hydrogen trucks will have a higher total cost of ownership than their battery-electric alternatives, as shown below.

While hydrogen costs and hydrogen drivetrain inefficiencies are key to the difference between hydrogen fuel and electric truck costs, perhaps the more important competitive obstacle will be the infrastructure for hydrogen refueling which is an order of magnitude more expensive than charging stations for battery electric vehicles. Assuming incorrectly that most trucks max out on weight before running out of trailer space, advocates for hydrogen fuel cell trucks often claim that the weight of the batteries will limit the freight an electric truck can transport.
ARK will be surprised if Nikola ever delivers a single fuel cell truck.

 

[Crissa]

This cost doesn't include the price of paying a driver to stand around and recharge, nor the limitation of miles that would make in a 'travel day', and assumes worst price for hydrogen per mile while assuming a ridiculously low electricity price of 5¢ per kwh (<1/5th avg US) at the supercharger?

I don't think Nikola's plan will work because they don't have a fueling network yet but that chart doesn't work out.

One of the advantages of hydrogen is that you are using a medium of storage so you can buy the cheaper electricity whereas you can't if you're not.

-Crissa

 

[ajdelange]

So the plan is to take cheap electricity, turn it into more expensive hydrogen to run a fuel cell which converts that hydrogen into electricity to run the motor.
I’d rather just use the cheap electricity.

The plan to to take cheap electricity and convert it to hydrogen such that when it is converted back to electricity its cost is about the same as if you bought the electricity from a SC or fast charger BUT in addition to allow you to take on 300 miles additional range in 5 minutes and store it in a few kg of H2 + tank rather than 600 kg of additional battery. You don't get cheap electricity at a super charger. You get it at home but for running around home you don't need 300 mi extra range.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I still think hydrogen is dumb..

 

[TyPope]

Hydrogen is a great fuel!

I suppose I could put a picture of an electric chair to show how dangerous electricity is...

 

[ajdelange]

Kind of interesting that H2 has its own little FUD team here.

Clearly Milton's scheme is brilliant. Whether he can execute it or not time will tell. But the hydrogen fuel sector is definitely heating up and I think Nikola is probably responsible. Plug stock went up after Republic announced their order (2500 Nikola trucks). I don't dismiss this technology any more.