Full Self-Driving Timeline Projections

[Cyberpunk 2021]

Elon is standing by a condensed timeline. Thoughts?

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[Crissa]

He's stood by it before.

Although, this current push is seeing a very fast refinement. It's interesting how they're separating the memory (mapping) from travel at different speeds and different conditions.

I want to see how they bring those together, but if they can do that this year, it'll reach that safety level.

-Crissa

 

[Newton]

Elons very good at being vague, comes with the job I guess. Nothing new here

 

[Cyberpunk 2021]

For those interested in providing their CT for the Tesla Network (robotaxi), a timeline that includes FSD completion by the end of this year might be ideal timing.

 

[Southlandtechie]

Has Elon said he would honor the price at the time of reservation? I seriously doubt that he would. At the time of my reservation it was $7,000. If it keeps increasing at this rate, it might become unaffordable by the time the trucks are being delivered.

 

[Cyberpunk 2021]

Has Elon said he would honor the price at the time of reservation? I seriously doubt that he would. At the time of my reservation it was $7,000. If it keeps increasing at this rate, it might become unaffordable by the time the trucks are being delivered.

That appears to be the promise.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

That appears to be the promise.

Of course they will honor it. Just don’t change your order. You can up or downgrade without changing the order.

 

[T3slaDad]

Has Elon said he would honor the price at the time of reservation? I seriously doubt that he would. At the time of my reservation it was $7,000. If it keeps increasing at this rate, it might become unaffordable by the time the trucks are being delivered.

We've been debunking this argument since reveal day: YES FSD will be honored on reservation day, but the vehicle and other options prices are subject to change.

Anywho, Tesla Tesla has a secret weapon on hand that Comma.AI and any other company currently does not have: the DOJO.

In short, the DOJO is the world's fastest public-owned supercomputer (1 petaflop!! ?) that is solely focused on perfecting FSD and it's scheduled to be fully operational this year.

So yes, my bet is FSD by end of 2022. Regulators aside. Good luck to everyone else!

 

[Cyberpunk 2021]

So yes, my bet is FSD by end of 2022. Regulators aside. Good luck to everyone else!

You mean 2021..?

The original date projected from Autonomy Day (April 2019) was by the end of 2020. They were unable to deliver and some of that can be attributed to COVID (if we're being charitable). CommaAI asked if Tesla will have it 'next year' (that tweet was posted December 31, 2020) and Elon replied the next day (January 1, 2021) that it will be complete by the end of *this* year - 2021.

 

[T3slaDad]

You mean 2021..?

The original date projected from Autonomy Day (April 2019) was by the end of 2020. They were unable to deliver and some of that can be attributed to COVID (if we're being charitable). CommaAI asked if Tesla will have it 'next year' (that tweet was posted December 31, 2020) and Elon replied the next day (January 1, 2021) that it will be complete by the end of *this* year - 2021.

I'm confident that it will be really awesome by the end of this year (99% complete), but I'm giving them another year to add another two or three 9's at the end (99.99%) ?

The 9's at the end are exponentially harder to obtain than the first 99%, meaning it takes waaay more time to achieve each extra decimal place. The DOJO could complete those extra 9's in orders of magnitude faster than anyone else could even attempt to hit the 99% mark!

Also, FSD doesn't have much of a bar to pass to be better than human driving. Once it's in the 90% range, it has dominated human driving safety standards! Thankfully(?)the bar isn't set too high for FSD's dominance.

 

[Crissa]

Has Elon said he would honor the price at the time of reservation? I seriously doubt that he would.

They have never reneged on a price they said was locked it. (Only slow at delivering it.)

It's very common for software to have introductory pricing like this.

The company would be criminally liable if they reneged on the price, because of the law in California.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

They have never reneged on a price they said was locked it. (Only slow at delivering it.)

It's very common for software to have introductory pricing like this.

The company would be criminally liable if they reneged on the price, because of the law in California.

-Crissa

yea but be careful.....California is good at changing laws

 

[Crissa]

yea but be careful.....California is good at changing laws

Sure, any law can be modified. This is a law we last modified fifteen years ago.

It's unlikely to go away. If anything, it would become more strict.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

Sure, any law can be modified. This is a law we last modified fifteen years ago.

It's unlikely to go away. If anything, it would become more strict.

-Crissa

yep....california is always tightening or taking away....hahahah

 

[Crissa]

yep....california is always tightening or taking away....hahahah

As it should be. If a law isn't working, or we need to do better, we should get rid of it or change it.

Now if only those modifications to Prop 13 had passed last fall; you'd think they would in a year when rentiers were killing businesses, but whatever.

-Crissa