Can we expect the Cybertruck in 2021 -- What's your opinion?

[Ehninger1212]

I'm hoping to get somewhere around 2,500-2600 recharges. If I get the dual motor I expect the range to depreciate from around 300 mi to somewhere around 200 mi over the lifespan of the vehicle. At what rate this will occur I'm not terribly certain but sure it will happen. I keep flirting with the idea of a tri motor exclusively for the range upgrade so that the degradation in the back half of the cybertrucks life is less impactful to the day-to-day.

I think the most important note here is that I rarely plan to supercharge. If I do have to supercharge I think it will be only once or twice a year, and most will be regular level two charging at home overnight.

Regarding battery degradation, check these out. Im thinking CT will be even better.

Model 3 degradation
400,000 mile model X

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[Jhodgesatmb]

I'm a little concerned with the number of folks that are indicating that this is a 'much' more expensive vehicle than they would normally buy, but saying they plan to 'keep it till they die'... unless you are 70+, I think that is not very likely and definitely not good for your financial well-being. Being excited about the CT is great, but if you can't afford it... there are lots of other options and prices will probably come down as batteries get cheaper and competition heats up.

I see these vehicles being kinda like phones or tablets. They will be upgraded regularly and the upgrades will be 'wanted'. A CT tri-motor that gets 500+ miles will be the bomb today... but will seem sad in a decade if newer technology provides for batteries getting 2-3 times the mileage, charging in 3 minutes, etc... If you had paid the premium 10 years ago for the top of the line iPhone because it would be the last one you'd need... the things we do today with phones weren't even thought of at that time.

Sorry this is off the topic of this thread, but I've seen several of these posts and it seems like a justification to buy something that they can't really afford?

Either way, it's not really any of my business what others do with their money, so just ignore if you prefer. /rant

I speak only for myself, and I have thought about the very real fact that technology will change, but when I think and talk about the CT being my last car what I mean is that it is such a durable platform that I don’t think I will need to buy another car. The stainless steel will surely outlive me, the batteries will probably outlive me, and the rest can be swapped if necessary. I welcome changes in technology that could be upgrades to the CT, and for the record I have been wanting a Tesla for years but was waiting for a 400+ mile range SUV. Other events made it financially feasible.

 

[Luke42]

Just out of curiosity, how many times do you plan on changing out batteries in that 10 years?

I ran this calculation for my GMC Sierra, and was surprised by the result.

With a 450-mile gas tank (no trailer) and a 250,000-mile life expectancy, one would expect to refill the gas tank about around 555 times during the like of the vehicle. That likely increases to a little over 1100 gas tank cycles over the expected life of the vehicle if you tow all the time.

This number compares very favorably with the cycle-count of existing lithium batteries. For instance, the cheap e-bike battery I bought to use in my lawn mower was marketed as being good for 800 cycles -- which is less than my truck, but should last me decades (the years will get this battery before wear does). At the other end of the spectrum, the LiFeP04 and million-mile battery options are mention cycle lives in excess of 3000 cycles, and sometimes as high as 5000 cycles.

If we conservatively assume that my 500-mile Tri-Motor Cybertruck really gets 450 miles, and that Tesla's fancy new 4680 battery doesn't last any longer than a stock LiFeP04 cell, that means the Cybertruck battery pack should be good for 1.35 million miles.

That was a fun diversion.

The average driver covers around 12,000 miles per year. That means that the average driver would undergo the equivalent 27 full charges per year (though it's likely to be a large number of partial charges/discharges between 20% and 80% SOC, which should be easier on the battery).

With a battery cycle life estimated at only 3000 cycles, and a conservatively derated tri-motor Cybertruck with a 450-mile range, the battery pack should last around 112 years. Maybe it'll only last 50 years if you tow all the time. Either way, the years will get this battery pack before the miles do.

Perhaps we should be asking about the expected shelf-life of these batteries instead?

 

[madquadbiker]

I agree... $50k is not bad for the right vehicle. A $50k F-150, Silverado, or Ram seems a poor choice for the average consumer though. They're still great work trucks and farm vehicles!

Just out of curiosity, how many times do you plan on changing out batteries in that 10 years? How much do you realistically expect your battery to degrade over that time? I know batteries are improving at a rapid pace, but there always will be battery degradation and a reduction of range.

I really hope batteries get to the price point where we can just change them out for a reasonable fee and keep our vehicles that much longer. Right now the batteries for a Nissan Leaf are more expensive than the value of the car, not saying the same for Tesla obviously, just stating a comparison.

That’s typical when it’s classed a spare part, rip off pricing in my opinion and that’s all of the manufacturers.

 

[NiceGuyMax]

I can envision the shit show on the "Taking Delivery of Your CT" thread.

"Someone with RN 224,523 got their CT before me! What gives????"

I'm already driving mine.

 

[NiceGuyMax]

The way I see it is that I would never buy a $50k truck (which is really an expensive total cost proposition), but I would buy a $50k CT because of two reasons:
1) Dramatically lower TCO vs ICE/Diesel
2) I'm willing to pay an "enviro premium" at this point with vehicles, accepting a higher cost for that.

It isn't that $50k is unaffordable, it's that $50k for a new F-150/250 is unreasonable especially when there is a used market.

I tend to drive cars until they die (had a 320k mile Escort, a 270k mile Explorer, etc.). I assume I'll drive the CT until it dies as well - which I expect to be somewhere around 300k miles. For me, that's ~10 years.

I put 152K on a Geo Metro Hatchback. I had to put it in neutral and rev the engine coming up on a red light or stop sign. It had no compression left. I felt like a refugee.

 

[Mini2nut]

I can see Tesla offering battery pack leases in the future. Buyers can choose to either purchase a vehicle outright or they would have the option to purchase a vehicle for a significantly lower cost and lease the battery pack. No more worrying about battery cell obsolescence, degradation, dead cells, etc.

 

[Youaregoldone]

I don't see any reason currently that it will not be in production by the end of 2021. There may be some unforeseen circumstance, like a tidal wave of Covid cases, that causes a delay. Other than that everything seems to be ahead of schedule.

I call for end of June 2022. And there are very specific reasons for my assertion. If you are curious I can tell what I heard from Elon himself. Intrigued yet?

 

[jerhenderson]

Bonjour-Hi!

Bonjour! You're from Quebec?

 

[Crissa]

I put 152K on a Geo Metro Hatchback. I had to put it in neutral and rev the engine coming up on a red light or stop sign. It had no compression left. I felt like a refugee.

It was a Geo. It was a refugee when it began!

A friend of mine still has theirs. The plastic is so degraded! But still cute.

-Crissa

 

[EVCanuck]

Bonjour! You're from Quebec?

Oui, je suis sur la rive-sud de Montréal.

 

[cyberforce]

It was a Geo. It was a refugee when it began!

A friend of mine still has theirs. The plastic is so degraded! But still cute.

-Crissa

I wanted a Geo Tracker so bad when I was in high school!!! Lol... I actually still do kinda want one...

 

[Mini2nut]

My prediction: November 2021. Tesla will start slow with roughly 1,000 CT’s per week until the new 4680 battery cell production ramps up. Production will be 100% dependent on the battery cell supply chain.

 

[jerhenderson]

Oui, je suis sur la rive-sud de Montréal.

My family moved from Montreal to BC in the late 60's. I still have an aunt and cousins there. We're now spread all over BC from Vancouver to the Okanagan and central interior.... even in Red Deer, AB.

 

[jerhenderson]

My prediction: November 2021. Tesla will start slow with roughly 1,000 CT’s per week until the new 4680 battery cell production ramps up. Production will be 100% dependent on the battery cell supply chain.

I'll agree with that....I don't expect to get my Trimotor until late 2022.... and I am fine with that.