Can we expect the Cybertruck in 2021 -- What's your opinion?

[Crissa]

It happened with the model 3 roll out. Some people who just logged on and placed an order were getting cars before early reservation holders and it usually seemed to be dependent on location.

Part of that is that there are also often orphan cars - cars produced, but no one wanted. Either the line needed a configuration for training, or they only had the supplies for, or painted the wrong color or, someone ordered and didn't pick up, or reconfigured, or whatever... They always ended up with extra cars that needed homes, and they were sometimes already shipped out.

So people who ordered later or called in were matched with these cars because the staff was available to do so.

-Crissa

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[Ehninger1212]

Part of that is that there are also often orphan cars - cars produced, but no one wanted. Either the line needed a configuration for training, or they only had the supplies for, or painted the wrong color or, someone ordered and didn't pick up, or reconfigured, or whatever... They always ended up with extra cars that needed homes, and they were sometimes already shipped out.

So people who ordered later or called in were matched with these cars because the staff was available to do so.

-Crissa

Either way it happens lol. My point is people should not think just because they are #5782 in line that they will get CT #5782

 

[showmemo]

I agree - and I also hope that for the CT. I try to focus my consumer behavior on "buy once, cry once" in that I'm willing to spend significantly more up front if it means the total cost of ownership is lower and there is payback over time (even very long times).

I'm a little concerned with the number of folks that are indicating that this is a 'much' more expensive vehicle than they would normally buy, but saying they plan to 'keep it till they die'... unless you are 70+, I think that is not very likely and definitely not good for your financial well-being. Being excited about the CT is great, but if you can't afford it... there are lots of other options and prices will probably come down as batteries get cheaper and competition heats up.

I see these vehicles being kinda like phones or tablets. They will be upgraded regularly and the upgrades will be 'wanted'. A CT tri-motor that gets 500+ miles will be the bomb today... but will seem sad in a decade if newer technology provides for batteries getting 2-3 times the mileage, charging in 3 minutes, etc... If you had paid the premium 10 years ago for the top of the line iPhone because it would be the last one you'd need... the things we do today with phones weren't even thought of at that time.

Sorry this is off the topic of this thread, but I've seen several of these posts and it seems like a justification to buy something that they can't really afford?

Either way, it's not really any of my business what others do with their money, so just ignore if you prefer. /rant

 

[WildhavenMI]

I'm a little concerned with the number of folks that are indicating that this is a 'much' more expensive vehicle than they would normally buy, but saying they plan to 'keep it till they die'... unless you are 70+, I think that is not very likely and definitely not good for your financial well-being. Being excited about the CT is great, but if you can't afford it... there are lots of other options and prices will probably come down as batteries get cheaper and competition heats up.

I see these vehicles being kinda like phones or tablets. They will be upgraded regularly and the upgrades will be 'wanted'. A CT tri-motor that gets 500+ miles will be the bomb today... but will seem sad in a decade if newer technology provides for batteries getting 2-3 times the mileage, charging in 3 minutes, etc... If you had paid the premium 10 years ago for the top of the line iPhone because it would be the last one you'd need... the things we do today with phones weren't even thought of at that time.

Sorry this is off the topic of this thread, but I've seen several of these posts and it seems like a justification to buy something that they can't really afford?

Either way, it's not really any of my business what others do with their money, so just ignore if you prefer. /rant

The way I see it is that I would never buy a $50k truck (which is really an expensive total cost proposition), but I would buy a $50k CT because of two reasons:
1) Dramatically lower TCO vs ICE/Diesel
2) I'm willing to pay an "enviro premium" at this point with vehicles, accepting a higher cost for that.

It isn't that $50k is unaffordable, it's that $50k for a new F-150/250 is unreasonable especially when there is a used market.

I tend to drive cars until they die (had a 320k mile Escort, a 270k mile Explorer, etc.). I assume I'll drive the CT until it dies as well - which I expect to be somewhere around 300k miles. For me, that's ~10 years.

 

[Ehninger1212]

The way I see it is that I would never buy a $50k truck (which is really an expensive total cost proposition), but I would buy a $50k CT because of two reasons:
1) Dramatically lower TCO vs ICE/Diesel
2) I'm willing to pay an "enviro premium" at this point with vehicles, accepting a higher cost for that.

It isn't that $50k is unaffordable, it's that $50k for a new F-150/250 is unreasonable especially when there is a used market.

I tend to drive cars until they die (had a 320k mile Escort, a 270k mile Explorer, etc.). I assume I'll drive the CT until it dies as well - which I expect to be somewhere around 300k miles. For me, that's ~10 years.

Couldn't have said it better. This is one of those WANTS vs NEEDS situations.. I really dont NEED a CT.. but I realllly WANT it.. when the day comes.. if its just not in the cards for me to get it, I will gladly pass up the opportunity with my head held high. I could prob find a $3K pickup on craigslist that will perform all the task I need.

 

[Crissa]

There's also a little put-my-money-where-my-mouth-is here.

Without the demand we showed Tesla with the reservations, would there be so many trucks clamoring to be out at or before it? Just the Rivian and a couple short-range or custom models that are already out there, right?

-Crissa

 

[Ehninger1212]

There's also a little put-my-money-where-my-mouth-is here.

Without the demand we showed Tesla with the reservations, would there be so many trucks clamoring to be out at or before it? Just the Rivian and a couple short-range or custom models that are already out there, right?

-Crissa

Might have to just sell my soul.. that could prob pay for a Tri-motor?

 

[BillyGee]

I can envision the shit show on the "Taking Delivery of Your CT" thread.

"Someone with RN 224,523 got their CT before me! What gives????"

I heard about people ordering a top end model Y this year and getting it 4 weeks later. The higher trims get priority, always.

Hoping that holds for my Dual motor CT.

 

[jerhenderson]

If you misspell the name of my country again, I promise you we will invade your Australia

where are you from EV ?

I'm BC.

 

[jerhenderson]

Either way it happens lol. My point is people should not think just because they are #5782 in line that they will get CT #5782

My question is Canadian CT's..... when do they get built and shipped? Dead last? First ? SN 112890192.

 

[EVCanuck]

where are you from EV ?

I'm BC.

Bonjour-Hi!

 

[C T Rick]

I heard about people ordering a top end model Y this year and getting it 4 weeks later. The higher trims get priority, always.

Hoping that holds for my Dual motor CT.

My client showed off his brand new Y he got. He only put a $100.deposit and got it a couple weeks later. His neighbor got pretty much the same identical one too. Didn’t realize you could get one so quickly. Of course he got it with just about all the toys installed. The garage Door link They come to your home to install the transmitter for $300.

Rick

 

[Ehninger1212]

My question is Canadian CT's..... when do they get built and shipped? Dead last? First ? SN 112890192.

Well, the best way I can answer that question is to base it on the Model 3 and Model Y roll out. Canada was the first international expansion of both of these Tesla vehicles. The model 3 happened close to 5 months after production (we all know about production "HELL") The model Y on the other hand started Canadian deliveries in June of this year, roughly 3 months after the start of production for the Model Y. So.. I would say we split the difference and assume the CT will be shipping to Canada within 4 months of production.

As far as what number truck that would be? (no clue) or when US production will start? sometime in 2021

Source (Electrek)

 

[cyberforce]

The way I see it is that I would never buy a $50k truck (which is really an expensive total cost proposition), but I would buy a $50k CT because of two reasons:
1) Dramatically lower TCO vs ICE/Diesel
2) I'm willing to pay an "enviro premium" at this point with vehicles, accepting a higher cost for that.

It isn't that $50k is unaffordable, it's that $50k for a new F-150/250 is unreasonable especially when there is a used market.

I tend to drive cars until they die (had a 320k mile Escort, a 270k mile Explorer, etc.). I assume I'll drive the CT until it dies as well - which I expect to be somewhere around 300k miles. For me, that's ~10 years.

I agree... $50k is not bad for the right vehicle. A $50k F-150, Silverado, or Ram seems a poor choice for the average consumer though. They're still great work trucks and farm vehicles!

Just out of curiosity, how many times do you plan on changing out batteries in that 10 years? How much do you realistically expect your battery to degrade over that time? I know batteries are improving at a rapid pace, but there always will be battery degradation and a reduction of range.

I really hope batteries get to the price point where we can just change them out for a reasonable fee and keep our vehicles that much longer. Right now the batteries for a Nissan Leaf are more expensive than the value of the car, not saying the same for Tesla obviously, just stating a comparison.

 

[WildhavenMI]

I agree... $50k is not bad for the right vehicle. A $50k F-150, Silverado, or Ram seems a poor choice for the average consumer though. They're still great work trucks and farm vehicles!

Just out of curiosity, how many times do you plan on changing out batteries in that 10 years? How much do you realistically expect your battery to degrade over that time? I know batteries are improving at a rapid pace, but there always will be battery degradation and a reduction of range.

I really hope batteries get to the price point where we can just change them out for a reasonable fee and keep our vehicles that much longer. Right now the batteries for a Nissan Leaf are more expensive than the value of the car, not saying the same for Tesla obviously, just stating a comparison.

I'm hoping to get somewhere around 2,500-2600 recharges. If I get the dual motor I expect the range to depreciate from around 300 mi to somewhere around 200 mi over the lifespan of the vehicle. At what rate this will occur I'm not terribly certain but sure it will happen. I keep flirting with the idea of a tri motor exclusively for the range upgrade so that the degradation in the back half of the cybertrucks life is less impactful to the day-to-day.

I think the most important note here is that I rarely plan to supercharge. If I do have to supercharge I think it will be only once or twice a year, and most will be regular level two charging at home overnight.