Can we expect the Cybertruck in 2021 -- What's your opinion?

[Crissa]

On a more serious note...

On that note, does anyone know if they pre-determine geographic priority for reservation holders?

It's a combination of support infrastructure in your local area plus batching the shipments. They have to train the staff and repair centers which field alot of calls as new owners get used to their new cars. Tesla tends to do all this at the same time, and using regions is a way to keep the training demands within their ability to do it... They can only train so many people at once.

-Crissa

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[OneLapper]

I can envision the shit show on the "Taking Delivery of Your CT" thread.

"Someone with RN 224,523 got their CT before me! What gives????"

 

[WildhavenMI]

On a more serious note...

It's a combination of support infrastructure in your local area plus batching the shipments. They have to train the staff and repair centers which field alot of calls as new owners get used to their new cars. Tesla tends to do all this at the same time, and using regions is a way to keep the training demands within their ability to do it... They can only train so many people at once.

-Crissa

Good point - didn't think about the training side of things.

I guess I'm going to have to just rent an apartment in Austin for a few months to game the geo ha.

 

[C T Rick]

For how long do you depreciated and do you depreciate it so it ends up being free in a way

I believe it’s a 7 year depreciation.
Not free, but a business expense.

What’s worse is if I use my sep/ ira earnings, then I would also be taxed as capital gains income. Not sure how that works if it’s a wash or another 30% taxable income.

But heck, Elon and all the hype has rewarded me nicely since My March investment. Might be able to buy the semi if the hype continues to drive the stock. Might need it to haul all the apples that are growing nicely too.

I imagine each state has its own local tax laws along with the federal tax laws. Doesn’t mean a thing until the truck is ordered and delivered. With the election, there could be a change to the tax laws too.

Rick

 

[SkiWhack]

I would say an Opinion vice an Analysis. But he got his clicks...

Only time will tell, but here is my take: Factory is moving ahead of schedule. Regardless of motors, we are talking about the same size trucks, so they could use different battery tech for the higher ranges and that might have to come later/will cost more. The 20 million they "lost" for the roadster referral program pales in comparison to what they made and 20 million, while not a small amount of money, is small when viewed relative to what Tesla is earning across the board. (Let's face it, it is a rounding error on what Elon gained in one day and pole-vaulted to become the forth richest person on the planet as a result) I believe the whole "over 600K orders and we stopped counting" is BS, even for a company as non-traditional as Tesla. In the end I bet the actual number of orders winds up being closer to 300k (if we ever find out) and they will be starting to produce them around this time next year. Why? Because when has Elon ever been "right" recently and not actually benefited (along with the rest of us) from being "wrong" in the end?

I ordered a Dual and I bet, based on above, those come out first and will have "older" tech, as they will cost more but will be the most sold numbers thus netting more in the end. And yes, I am biased. And yes, I am trying to influence the universe in my favor.

Thanks very much for posting the vid! Great stuff!

SS

Based on my order number I'm like 417,000 in line and I've got a dual motor and ordered mine a month after the reveal

 

[Ehninger1212]

I can envision the shit show on the "Taking Delivery of Your CT" thread.

"Someone with RN 224,523 got their CT before me! What gives????"

It happened with the model 3 roll out. Some people who just logged on and placed an order were getting cars before early reservation holders and it usually seemed to be dependent on location.

 

[JoeRod97]

I can envision the shit show on the "Taking Delivery of Your CT" thread.

"Someone with RN 224,523 got their CT before me! What gives????"

 

[JoeRod97]

Dont care..i just want mine asap.fisrt they said 3motors will be built last...now they say they will be first built..aarrgghh..dont tease me.just build it. Also..how can you tell your position in line with your RN #..i assume 114337 gets theirs before 114338..

 

[Ehninger1212]

Dont care..i just want mine asap.fisrt they said 3motors will be built last...now they say they will be first built..aarrgghh..dont tease me.just build it. Also..how can you tell your position in line with your RN #..i assume 114337 gets theirs before 114338..

Not exactly, if 114337 is in Canada and 114338 is in Texas I bet 114338 Gets it first.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I believe it’s a 7 year depreciation.
Not free, but a business expense.

What’s worse is if I use my sep/ ira earnings, then I would also be taxed as capital gains income. Not sure how that works if it’s a wash or another 30% taxable income.

But heck, Elon and all the hype has rewarded me nicely since My March investment. Might be able to buy the semi if the hype continues to drive the stock. Might need it to haul all the apples that are growing nicely too.

I imagine each state has its own local tax laws along with the federal tax laws. Doesn’t mean a thing until the truck is ordered and delivered. With the election, there could be a change to the tax laws too.

Rick

I don’t want to go political here but you brought this up. How do you envision the outcome of the election affecting tax law? That seems like an extreme stretch of the imagination. It’s not Bernie Sanders challenging but a right-of-center Democrat. The most we might see is the elimination of tax cuts for the wealthy. And don’t you think we have to find a way to pay down the hole that Coronavirus put this nation into? Wouldn’t that apply reasonably to either party?

 

[alan auerbach]

Just a disappointed note from someone who ordered a tri-motor they will never get, because I live outside the US, which is a real pity. I expect the 'export' version will be a lot less fun, and a lot further away.

I'd be surprised if Elon didn't push buttons to get something out of the factory and sold before the end of 2021, not sure how much though.

"... ordered a tri-motor ... never get, because I live outside the US, ...."

Not sure of your thinking. When your turn arrives, you can change your order to whatever model is coming out the door. And if the recent rumours of drive-by-wire steering are true, it might be relatively simple to create a right-hand-drive export version.

 

[WildhavenMI]

I don’t want to go political here but you brought this up. How do you envision the outcome of the election affecting tax law? That seems like an extreme stretch of the imagination. It’s not Bernie Sanders challenging but a right-of-center Democrat. The most we might see is the elimination of tax cuts for the wealthy. And don’t you think we have to find a way to pay down the hole that Coronavirus put this nation into? Wouldn’t that apply reasonably to either party?

I'm going to guess that he was talking about some state level changes, and perhaps that at one point (this was a year ago at least now) was talking about eliminating EV subsidies at the state level by holding federal funds hostage.

My unpopular opinion is that subsidies of all stripes are often misguided, and that there are plenty of "hidden subsidies" that aren't talked about enough. And the current EV tax credits benefit mostly the wealthy enough who pay $7,500+ in federal taxes when we should be considering enabling those who are not able to make the better financial decision vs rewarding those it might not be impactful for.

There's a wonderful Terry Prachett quote I trot out whenever I talk about this kind of stuff:

“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.”

 

[empiredown]

Based on my order number I'm like 417,000 in line and I've got a dual motor and ordered mine a month after the reveal

That’s if the Reservation Numbers are based in reality AND the formula that is being used to track them is accurate... Two very, very big ifs in my opinion. It’s in Tesla’s best interest to obfuscate the numbers, particularly if they are low. This BS about not knowing the real amount, etc. is what convinced me. Why play the games? Why not show true numbers so everyone knows where they actually stand? So that they can play their reindeer games with them. It’s cool, they are the only game in town and can run the game any way they like. I’m playing the game too. I’m just not believing the hype.

ß

 

[Luke42]

But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

This quote is an excellent explanation of why it's so expensive to be poor.

My household recently doubled its income (one of us went back to work after staying at home with our 3rd child), and so we've been been living what Prachett observed in a very literal way.

As unfair as it is, I'm hoping that the Cybertruck is the stainless steel equivalent of the "rich man's boots" in Prachett's observation. And I plan to take full advantage of that, in order to make my household resilient and comfortable in the coming decades.

I've reconciled the moral quandary this raises by voting to make sure as many other people as possible get a chance to do the same. Making sure people have access to education and healthcare is very important to me.

 

[WildhavenMI]

This quote is an excellent explanation of why it's so expensive to be poor.

My household recently doubled its income (one of us went back to work after staying at home with our 3rd child), and so we've been been living what Prachett observed in a very literal way.

As unfair as it is, I'm hoping that the Cybertruck is the stainless steel equivalent of the "rich man's boots" in Prachett's observation. And I plan to take full advantage of that, in order to make my household resilient and comfortable in the coming decades.

I've reconciled the moral quandary this raises by voting to make sure as many other people as possible get a chance to do the same. Making sure people have access to education and healthcare is very important to me.

I agree - and I also hope that for the CT. I try to focus my consumer behavior on "buy once, cry once" in that I'm willing to spend significantly more up front if it means the total cost of ownership is lower and there is payback over time (even very long times).

That same philosophy comes in when considering the "entire cost" of an item as well - beyond just dollars sunk, but time spent, environmental impact of the entire supply chain, and where the investment in the object goes. For example, I'll spend money locally and independently where possible to hopefully provide economic benefit to those around me so they are enriched (as opposed to the already-rich getting even richer).

Money is water, and commerce is a river. If the river is straight and deep, it's very efficient at moving water out. But a meandering, shallow river benefits the ecosystem around it and spreads its wealth better than just running water out to an ocean. I want my money to be a meandering river.