Tinker71
Well-known member
- First Name
- Ray
- Joined
- Aug 8, 2020
- Messages
- 110
- Reaction score
- 116
- Location
- Utah
- Vehicles
- 1976 electric conversion bus
- Occupation
- Project Manager
- Thread starter
- #1
As of today 2/22/21 there have been 1802972 reservations placed for Tesla products since the Nov 21 2019 release date. Supposedly after backing out S3XY, powerwalls and any other Tesla products the reservation # will tell you where you are at in line for the CT. Now hats off to the google spreadsheet guy but he/she/it is providing estimates based on 15000 crowdsourced reservations out of 1.8 million, many of which have entered their number because of their interest in the CT. Now many people are not fanatics and have not even visited this site.
I am going to guess that the early data from the first couple months is pretty good, but after that it is fairly contaminated with powerwalls and model y. Those guys probably are not populating the reservation tracker.
One reason I say this is because my net reservation number is 935181 from July 19, 2020. That was 8 months after opening. Now at 15 months after start of reservations we have almost doubled to 1802972. The first couple months were really intense but that leveled out pretty quickly.
The second part of this tread is production times. I actually think these are being underestimated. Tesla made 442000 3s and Y last year and can crank out a Y in China every 52 seconds when the line is operating at speed. Now given the simplicity of the CT and the lessons learned from the model Y ramp I think it it entirely possible that Tesla can make 200,000 CT in 2022 and 500,000 in 2023 if they want to. One big caveat is the battery production. If they can make more money putting the same batteries in a Y or S I think they will. I have a suspicion you tri motor reservation holders might be screwed. Nearly double the batteries required per unit. I don't think the margin on a Tri will justify the lost sale on another model.
The 3rd part is the highly debated cancellation rate coming in from 10% to 50+%.
Bottom line for late reservation holders like myself, especially dual motor reservation holders with FSD. I think you can expect yours sooner that the counter says you will. At least I hope so
Admin: If you read this maybe you could provide an update from the 713000 from May 28 of 2020.
I am going to guess that the early data from the first couple months is pretty good, but after that it is fairly contaminated with powerwalls and model y. Those guys probably are not populating the reservation tracker.
One reason I say this is because my net reservation number is 935181 from July 19, 2020. That was 8 months after opening. Now at 15 months after start of reservations we have almost doubled to 1802972. The first couple months were really intense but that leveled out pretty quickly.
The second part of this tread is production times. I actually think these are being underestimated. Tesla made 442000 3s and Y last year and can crank out a Y in China every 52 seconds when the line is operating at speed. Now given the simplicity of the CT and the lessons learned from the model Y ramp I think it it entirely possible that Tesla can make 200,000 CT in 2022 and 500,000 in 2023 if they want to. One big caveat is the battery production. If they can make more money putting the same batteries in a Y or S I think they will. I have a suspicion you tri motor reservation holders might be screwed. Nearly double the batteries required per unit. I don't think the margin on a Tri will justify the lost sale on another model.
The 3rd part is the highly debated cancellation rate coming in from 10% to 50+%.
Bottom line for late reservation holders like myself, especially dual motor reservation holders with FSD. I think you can expect yours sooner that the counter says you will. At least I hope so
Admin: If you read this maybe you could provide an update from the 713000 from May 28 of 2020.
