Robo Taxi Thoughts?

[Luke42]

I would say that making a decision about how one wants to use FSD is premature. Much like science fiction though, discussion is never premature.

There are many areas in life where technology is progressing apace with very little discussion from the public. As the technology matures, decisions are being made in a relative vacuum by individuals instead of by the public at large. Personally, I prefer for there to be a balance between public and private decision making. I want technologists to invent/create/develop new technologies. I don't want them to bring about an evil AI, a new pandemic, a controlling world government, or the apocalypse. As a result, I appreciate when people spend the time to think ahead on various scenarios and discuss their views so that I can at least get a general idea of where things might end up and make my own decisions later on in an informed way.

I'm a big sci-fi fan, and I've been surfing the wave of IT since the 1990s.

Hell, yes, a sci-fi story about self-driving cars is worthwhile! And sorting out the issues is good.

However, I keep reading comments from people on this board who say they've reserved several CTs with the idea of using them for the robotaxi service -- and that's really what I think is premature.

The assumption that autonomous robo-taxis will be a viable business within the loan term of the CT is premature at this point. Putting money toward taxis which can't-yet-be-driven when you could be putting money toward, say, rental real-estate is silly.

The economics and the business issues you run in to with rental property and rental trucks are pretty similar, but one of them is well understood and one of them is a "we all hope it will work one day".

I mean, how come nobody's excited about bankrolling a local Uber/Lyft driver, or renting cars on Turo? The economics are the same, the only difference is the cost-cutting tech. Yes, the tech will cut costs, but all market participants will have access to the same tech at the same time, whenever it becomes available. So, why is starting a as-of-today-fictional robotaxi company different from starting any other kind of taxi service?

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[rr6013]

<Snippy> …and there and I just wanted to get everybody's thoughts on the matter.

First Principle: If Uber or Lyft ride-sharing left a bad taste, you have no business in Robo-taxi - period. You have no one to hold in harm - no driver, no company. Tesla will have to insure these Robos.

Robo-taxi closed-circuit. Ski resort rides to the top/bottom. College sports events mass transit yo-yo runs. MBA ride-free College Graduation Day.

Robo-taxi convoy-mode Wedding, wine country, corp picnic, FORD F-150 tractor pulls, etc...

Robo-taxi city-to-city

Robo-taxi door-to-door multi-drops

Robo-taxi Fedex-mode delivery w/AI routing

Robo-taxi concierge-mode <Fav>brand

Robo-taxi airport-mode

 

[OCS12]

I completely agree that the odds of being able to use the truck as a robo taxi anytime soon is extremely unlikely. It’s a shame. I love the idea of going out for a few drinks after work, letting the truck earn a few bucks to cover my bar tab while I’m out at happy hour, then letting it drive me home!

 

[myco.rrhizae]

That way there's a known clientele with probably better manners.

yeah this matters. I think that there will be a 'permissions' function in the Tesla app that lets your car only service trusted people or be public hail-able. I believe that there should also be a function to you to add specific people such as family that can hail the vehicle for free (at the owner's operating expense) with the option to allow that permission at certain times of day and block it at will.
This would all be part of a robust 'Permissions' suite of settings in the Tesla app for each of your vehicles.
This way a group of friends or family could choose to split the cost of a vehicle and share access to it. Like that pickup on the side that you each only need for some garden work and play time a couple times per month.
Businesses could also opperate company cars in the same manner and give permissions to specific employees, etc...

 

[myco.rrhizae]

My concern would be: How does one make sure the robotaxi is "clean" between the rides if there is no driver?

How about a built in 'scent sensor' (does such a thing exist?) When an overwhelming odor is detected, the app automatically drives to the local robotaxi cleaning service and then reviews the interior footage and bills the customer's security deposit for the cleaning costs.

 

[myco.rrhizae]

the legal questions which must be resolved allowing cars to move autonomously on road moves at the speed of law (not the speed of technology).

Did you know that Waymo is currently operating fully driverless robo taxis in Pheonix for public ride hailing?

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Did you know that Waymo is currently operating fully driverless robo taxis in Pheonix for public ride hailing?

Yes. Old news. And they are geofences.

 

[myco.rrhizae]

Yes. Old news. And they are geofences.

Right, obviously different tech, but Im just pointing out that regulators seem ready to approve driverless cars on public roads as soon at the tech is ready. the fact that it's old news just adds validity to that point.
Its not so much this 'at the speed of law' thing that we had all assumed. I was definitely taken by surprise when that went through.

 

[T3slaDad]

Lots of good discussion! I'm a big fan of the RT network and the possibilities for me. That being said, I do love looking at the other side of the coin too (potential issues, pitfalls, etc).

Here's what I've gathered so far:

Elon said in the 2020 Q4 earnings call that 2021 is the year of FSD/RT regulatory implementation/support, with USA leading the way to regulatory support and encouragement.

He also said regulators only care that FSD is 200% safer than a human, and they will reach that this year without DOJO in full scale (his words, not mine).

He also said when DOJO becomes fully active next year, it'll be 2000%!! more reliable than humans and most regulators would be on board by then.

He also said (in the past) that once RT networks are in full swing down the road, they plan to stop selling cars to the public and focus on perfecting the RT network with whoever already owns a Tesla and their own fleet.

Elon also said Tesla's with FSD will be an appreciating asset when RT's go live (and reiterates that periodically). This makes sense if they remove selling to the public at some point.

He also said they will hit level 4 autonomy GLOBALLY supported by end of 2021 (this is a big deal especially in China and EU, he also said level 5 likely in USA by EOY).

My personal opinion is RT vehicles are ideally meant to be run 24/7 as a fleet vehicle, not a personal and commercial asset. Also, think about this. When you need your car, why not hail a RT vs stopping yours from making money to come from wherever it is, just so you can have YOUR car take you somewhere?

Elon's goal is to have it be cheaper to hail RT's than to own a vehicle (lower cost per mile), thus dramatically improving mass adoption (the S curve).

Elon also said he wants to lease out the FSD framework to their competitors when it's perfected (makes sense, they are by far further than anyone else in progress). Think about it: that could mean drastically more RT's on the road since auto makers just need to build the cars, slap on cheap hardware, and lease Tesla's software vs spending billions on their own). S curve!!!

Elon said that the only thing stopping them now is 2 things: converting all systems to time-based video AI (vs thousands of individual frames/second), and onboard self-labeling techniques (this is the "holy grail of autonomy" as he put it). They are almost done with the first as many systems are already converted.

As everything goes, time of day and location will determine how passengers treat your RT vehicles. That being said, Elon is very aware of the vandalism issue and has spoken to their plans to prevent and remediate the situation when it does happen a few times. More will be shared as time goes on, don't worry!

There's a lot more that I've been gathering over the years and especially recently as he opens up about FSD and the RT network plans and development, but you bet your britches that I'm excited to have my CT become a RT in 3 years! I for one would love to have a CYBERFLEET, but that is for time and income/investment requirements to tell.

 

[Luke42]

Did you know that Waymo is currently operating fully driverless robo taxis in Pheonix for public ride hailing?

Phoenix is not the entire USA.

The speed of law is definitely an issue.

Then there's technology. There's a lot of promise here, but expectations seem to be ahead of what's deployed in the field.

And then there's customer-acceptance. How many people do you know who've given up their car just because Uber, Lyft, or conventional taxis exist?


All three legs of this stool have to function in order for robotaxis to meet expectations.

 

[Sirfun]

Phoenix is not the entire USA.

The speed of law is definitely an issue.

Then there's technology. There's a lot of promise here, but expectations seem to be ahead of what's deployed in the field.

And then there's customer-acceptance. How many people do you know who've given up their car just because Uber, Lyft, or conventional taxis exist?


All three legs of this stool have to function in order for robotaxis to meet expectations.

I watched some videos of riding in a driverless Waymo taxi. The worst one I saw a guy had the taxi meet him in a grocery store parking lot. The taxi stopped with flashers on, in a traffic lane for him to get in. He started the app and it accepted him saying "You are good to go" . It took 2 mins. for the damn thing to move. All the pedestrians were walking in front of it and a crapload of cars got tired of waiting and drove around the thing. It looks like the public in Phoenix are fed up with them and knowing it's a driverless car, they act like, SCREW THAT THING!

Here's the video:

 

[Crissa]

And then there's customer-acceptance. How many people do you know who've given up their car just because

Quite a few. Being able to reliably call a ride for a reasonable price really balances out the cost to insure, register, maintain, and store a car.

That doesn't apply to the still majority who don't pay to park, but we all pay for free parking.

It's hard to get any trends out of mass data since car ownership had gotten so cheap and so required the only blip was the Great Recession.

It looks like the public in Phoenix are fed up with them and knowing it's a driverless car, they act like, SCREW THAT THING!

Seems like it wasn't the robotaxi's fault. It was following the rules.

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

Quite a few. Being able to reliably call a ride for a reasonable price really balances out the cost to insure, register, maintain, and store a car.

Where I live (college town in the Midwest), it's mostly just college students and people who are trying to make a point who go carless.

There are a few people who've tried it -- and I even tried it to a large extent (though I just let my car sit for months at a time). But, what we've all found is that the demands of family life ultimately require one vehicle per career per household.

One of the big reasons is that the people with young children that I know won't take taxis/Uber/Lyft, because it takes a good 5-10 minutes to install each carseat. (I have three kids with various kinds of seats/boosters, so futzing around for 15 minutes every time we get into or out of a car would be a non-starter. .)

I've traveled to The Bay Area extensively for work, and the traffic-economic environment is very different out here. There's no Caltrain/BART, the parking lots are large, and the traffic is chill out here on the corn-filled plane. Driving and vehicle ownership is just less frustrating than it is in California, and less expensive too. Despite this, our downtowns are more walkable and our residential broadband speeds are higher than most of the places I've been in SV, too.

I suppose the transportation needs in your circle are quite different if you know a lot of people who don't have kids, though.

People aren't clamoring for robotaxis here, because our commuting times top out at about 20 minutes. An hour each way is a monster commute by local standards, especially in the winter. Autonomous trucks get most of the mindshare, because the benefits are huge -- and, yet, it will put a lot of people out of work.

 

[Sirfun]

Where I live (college town in the Midwest), it's mostly just college students and people who are trying to make a point who go carless.

There are a few people who've tried it -- and I even tried it to a large extent (though I just let my car sit for months at a time). But, what we've all found is that the demands of family life ultimately require one vehicle per career per household.

One of the big reasons is that the people with young children that I know won't take taxis/Uber/Lyft, because it takes a good 5-10 minutes to install each carseat. (I have three kids with various kinds of seats/boosters, so futzing around for 15 minutes every time we get into or out of a car would be a non-starter. .)

I've traveled to The Bay Area extensively for work, and the traffic-economic environment is very different out here. There's no Caltrain/BART, the parking lots are large, and the traffic is chill out here on the corn-filled plane. Driving and vehicle ownership is just less frustrating than it is in California, and less expensive too. Despite this, our downtowns are more walkable and our residential broadband speeds are higher than most of the places I've been in SV, too.

I suppose the transportation needs in your circle are quite different if you know a lot of people who don't have kids, though.

People aren't clamoring for robotaxis here, because our commuting times top out at about 20 minutes. An hour each way is a monster commute by local standards, especially in the winter. Autonomous trucks get most of the mindshare, because the benefits are huge -- and, yet, it will put a lot of people out of work.

We have a handicap daughter, and we use this to keep her safe in all our cars. It's very convenient, and would be a good option for a taxi.

https://shop.saferide4kids.com/products/ridesafer-travel-vest

 

[Crissa]

It's much easier to do in a severe urban area like San Francisco (the city) or a big urban like New York City or Chicago. They have nearly no place you can't go on mass transit.

You can manage alright in some lower tier urban areas like Portland or Seattle that have decent transportation and access with alternates like grade-separate cycling paths.

https://shop.saferide4kids.com/products/ridesafer-travel-vest

Oh, hey, that looks pretty cute.

-Crissa