Need Opinion

[ReddykwRun]

"This is not a new phenomenon, just like hurricanes are not new. But we are getting more, and the intensities seem to be ratcheting upwards."

I grew up on the Gulf Coast and I can say without question hurricane seasons come and go like the tides. Sometimes they are steered right up into the Gulf before they make there turn and sometimes it's the eastern seaboard that takes the hit, I've seen one a few years ago leave the Gulf and come full circle and hit us again. Since records have been kept (1851) there have been some real killers but as far as them getting worse I disagree. I think about the Keys Hurricane ( or the Galveston Hurricane to name a few. When the conditions are right off the coast of Africa there is a strong possibility of the conditions to come together to make what we call a Hurricane. We accept the nice sunshiny days so why do we take the storms with it? Given, too much of one thing gets us out of balance. Too much rain, too much wind, too much sun, snow......get it. I think the media has a tendency to make people hypersensitive to weather events and fails to look back at records and show it's always been this way and will be in the future. True in some regards we can make things worse for ourselves, like building on a barrier island and then crying when our house gets washed off the island, (seen it many times). The lesson to not build your house on the sand but on the rock. It applies to a lot of things in life.

The eye of Sally is crawling off the coast at a painfully slow pace, come on why don't ya, let's wrap this one up. Darn, So fitting, I just lost grid power and now on battery back up and going out to crank the standby generator. Oh well, nothing like the sound of a purring Genset to rock me to sleep. Good night all.

See:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/articles/deadliest-us-hurricanes

Well this has been a fun 24 hours. Now running on standby generator and finally got my DSL back up. Compared to past hurricanes I would rate this a "5" been in worse and many of lesser velocity, on the ground and in the air. This one was a sleeper, crept up on us then strengthened right before it hit us. No damage to my property but a lot of other folks were not so lucky with trees falling on structures, that's why I cleared all trees withing falling distance and ran my power underground, I have seen a lot of problems when you don't follow certain rules in that sense. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 dropped EVERY powerline in the county and we had power back within 2 weeks, if all goes well and with a LOT of traveling utility HEROS from all over the country, BTW these guys are rockstars around these parts, so maybe we should be back on the grid within a week or sooner. Got the outside galley all setup on the back porch and cooking with gas, literally, wish I had it in the house.

Advertisement

 

[Sirfun]

Well this has been a fun 24 hours. Now running on standby generator and finally got my DSL back up. Compared to past hurricanes I would rate this a "5" been in worse and many of lesser velocity, on the ground and in the air. This one was a sleeper, crept up on us then strengthened right before it hit us. No damage to my property but a lot of other folks were not so lucky with trees falling on structures, that's why I cleared all trees withing falling distance and ran my power underground, I have seen a lot of problems when you don't follow certain rules in that sense. Hurricane Ivan in 2004 dropped EVERY powerline in the county and we had power back within 2 weeks, if all goes well and with a LOT of traveling utility HEROS from all over the country, BTW these guys are rockstars around these parts, so maybe we should be back on the grid within a week or sooner. Got the outside galley all setup on the back porch and cooking with gas, literally, wish I had it in the house.

Sounds like you made it through pretty decent. I'm glad. Watching the Weather Channel last night till about 3:30 your time, I was thinking about you and some relatives in Florida. The one thing that was strange about Sally. That was the first time I've seen the weather folks saying it would be good to be at the point of landfall. With Sally moving so slow they were saying it would be good to have the eye go over you for a break in the weather for several hours and reduce the total rainfall in that area. The guy who was in Pensacola was wishing they would get part of the eye.

 

[ldjessee]

Since this is an opinion thread...

Even with better warning, more advancements in building technology, and yet someone is surprised more people are not dying than they did over 100 years ago? I definitely think the weather is getting more extreme more regularly.

As for the fires out west (or in Australia), forest fires always happen, but it is how easily and fast they spread that is more extreme.

Think about this. We now have planes dropping water, satellite mapping with IR to find hot spots, and we still cannot control fires from burning down communities? Firefighters have a vast array of more tools and techniques than they used to have 50 to 100 years ago. People camped, dropped cigarettes, and did stupid stuff that caused forest fires 100 years ago... So now why are three states on fire?

1 degree of increased average temperature makes water evaporate faster, creating stronger or more frequent storms.

1 degree of increased average temperature that makes water evaporate faster also means that things dry out faster, that winds are stronger...

https://www.americanprogress.org/is...ree-temperature-increase-means-for-wildfires/

 

[Crissa]

This is on the beach. There were three days of over 100F on that beach. The water's temperature is usually below 50F. So it's unusual for the beach to get hot enough for a plant full of liquid to burn.

Now, four hundred miles south, or where this plant lives surrounded by pavement, we see this fire. But a fire started and continuing naturally we never see.

That's how bad it was.

Also, the storm that brough us those fires was like none ever recorded in these mountains' history. We basically had a tornado in the neighborhood next to mine. And six hours of lightning assault with very little rain.

This storm also didn't just hit one mountain range but seven different ones over the length of the state. Unprecedented.

-Crissa

 

[Blue Steel]

I live near Portland. This past week has been rough. I had to take down the smoke alarms in my house because they wouldn't stop going off. Many family and friends had to evacuate. My kids kept saying we should evacuate even though we were "only" in a level 2 zone. It was a little stressful and we are still living in smoke fog. Portland has been the #1 worst city in the world for AQ for several days now.

The cause of the fires is complicated. It's been very dry, but then it's always very dry this time of year. The night the fires started we had a freak wind storm. We have occasional wind storms, but I've never seen one like this during the summer.

The local authorities issued a severe fire warning the day before. That was the right thing to do, but unfortunately it also caused a bunch of mentally unstable people to head out with their gas cans to light fires. Not all the fires were arson, but many were. In fact one guy was setting fires, got arrested, got released, went back to setting fires and got arrested again... all in the same day!

Tonight we are expecting severe thunderstorms, so that should be fun. But thankfully it's finally supposed to rain tomorrow. I hope it rains just to clear out all the smoke.

EDIT: OP, if I had a time machine I'd tell you to buy Tesla stock!

 

[Sirfun]

I live near Portland. This past week has been rough. I had to take down the smoke alarms in my house because they wouldn't stop going off. Many family and friends had to evacuate. My kids kept saying we should evacuate even though we were "only" in a level 2 zone. It was a little stressful and we are still living in smoke fog. Portland has been the #1 worst city in the world for AQ for several days now.

The cause of the fires is complicated. It's been very dry, but then it's always very dry this time of year. The night the fires started we had a freak wind storm. We have occasional wind storms, but I've never seen one like this during the summer.

The local authorities issued a severe fire warning the day before. That was the right thing to do, but unfortunately it also caused a bunch of mentally unstable people to head out with their gas cans to light fires. Not all the fires were arson, but many were. In fact one guy was setting fires, got arrested, got released, went back to setting fires and got arrested again... all in the same day!

Tonight we are expecting severe thunderstorms, so that should be fun. But thankfully it's finally supposed to rain tomorrow. I hope it rains just to clear out all the smoke.

EDIT: OP, if I had a time machine I'd tell you to buy Tesla stock!

That first paragraph captured how real this has gotten for a massive amount of people. Way down here in So Cal we're finally getting a day where the AQI is touching 50 and almost better than moderate air quality. Then I read your comment and just went WOW. The day will come when this will all be over, but unfortunately today is not that day. SOON!

 

[Blue Steel]

That first paragraph captured how real this has gotten for a massive amount of people. Way down here in So Cal we're finally getting a day where the AQI is touching 50 and almost better than moderate air quality. Then I read your comment and just went WOW. The day will come when this will all be over, but unfortunately today is not that day. SOON!

It's funny, we've had smoke down to the ground for so long now when my wife and I watch TV if we see blue sky we are like: "Look at that sky!!! Wow!"

 

[ReddykwRun]

I live near Portland. This past week has been rough. I had to take down the smoke alarms in my house because they wouldn't stop going off. Many family and friends had to evacuate. My kids kept saying we should evacuate even though we were "only" in a level 2 zone. It was a little stressful and we are still living in smoke fog. Portland has been the #1 worst city in the world for AQ for several days now.

The cause of the fires is complicated. It's been very dry, but then it's always very dry this time of year. The night the fires started we had a freak wind storm. We have occasional wind storms, but I've never seen one like this during the summer.

The local authorities issued a severe fire warning the day before. That was the right thing to do, but unfortunately it also caused a bunch of mentally unstable people to head out with their gas cans to light fires. Not all the fires were arson, but many were. In fact one guy was setting fires, got arrested, got released, went back to setting fires and got arrested again... all in the same day!

Tonight we are expecting severe thunderstorms, so that should be fun. But thankfully it's finally supposed to rain tomorrow. I hope it rains just to clear out all the smoke.

EDIT: OP, if I had a time machine I'd tell you to buy Tesla stock!

The old "catch and release" program, works well with fish but not so with the nutjobs, especially when they play with matches and have an evil agenda.
So when does the "rainy" season start?

And about the TSLA stock, I went to the post office the other day to send off a package and politely inquired what would be the estimated postage to send myself a simple postcard (remember those) to the year 2010, they understood my plight but could not comply, must be a lot of folks like me just checking on that possibility.

 

[Crissa]

So when does the "rainy" season start?

Usually in October. But this year is a La Nina year, which is weakly associated with colder, drier - tho we've had some of our rainiest years in La Nina. It's the opposite of El Nino.

-Crissa

 

[jerhenderson]

Tesla has great potential, and for good reason may be worth well over $3000 a share in the future.
But at $1000 a share, today, that is a massive premium to its current reality . . .and its forecast performance for the next 6 to 12 months.

Absolutely Every analyst expects Tesla to announce a loss this quarter about to end in a week !

(Which is nothing special, its quite obvious to every body. It only made a minuscule $16m net profit in Qtr 1, 2020 due to selling ~$350 million in carbon credits to Fiat Chrysler. These are likely to disappear fairly soon when Fiat merge with PSA )


Tesla has never made an annual profit. Not Ever.
Elon is right when he advises “in his opinion the price is too high, (and that at about $701 ).
(Tesla would still be an incredibly successful company with great prospects at $300 a share)

Note : Elon in the Qtr 1, 2020 Earnings call stated no capital raising required in the foreseeable future, 3 weeks later, Viola, capital raising took place !

A number of analysts believe a new capital raising will be required in perhaps the next 2 - 6 mths.

Buying Tesla is obviously venturing into the Stock Market.
The stock market across the board is inflating directly due to Fed action,
(not necessarily intrinsic to the company's performance or prospects.)

It all depends on how well you believe in the Fed’s ability to keep inflating the market ?

Cos the Economy is certainly not remotely correlated with the stock market !

Like Sven Henrich says : “ Congratulations I guess to the Fed . . . Its unprecedented, . . . . . they have managed to create an Asset Bubble in the middle of a recession “ !!!

Oh’ and the Virus is surging again in the U.S ! And its leadership has it all under control, congratulations for demonstrating in can drink a glass a water, in a event tailor made to make the Virus thrive

So, yep, buy a $2000 Call and a $300 Put on Tesla. One of those positions will make enough money to offset the losing position, and then some, to cover the purchase of your Cybertruck

Who cares if Tesla makes profit off of carbon credit? Since when has Wall Street ever cared how profit was made if at the end of the day it was profit? Wall Street fueled the house market crash and no one cared. Caring about selling carbon credits is just short-seller spazzing. If Legacy auto is too stupid to make EV's , let Tesla make easy pure profit.

 

[Geo]

Who cares if Tesla makes profit off of carbon credit? Since when has Wall Street ever cared how profit was made if at the end of the day it was profit? Wall Street fueled the house market crash and no one cared. Caring about selling carbon credits is just short-seller spazzing. If Legacy auto is too stupid to make EV's , let Tesla make easy pure profit.

You’re right there’s many on Wall st, who have not cared, or turned a blind eye, or who where complicit, in all sorts of unethical actions all the way up to out right fraud. Not that I’m suggesting anything at all untoward from Tesla. Not the slightest.

But hey, ask Arthur Anderson if it was important they work out how Enron made profit !
In one sense it was from a legitimate, core activity trading power. But on closer examination not quite so legitimate.

But Yes it’s not enough to make profit, it has to be from core business activities, not side gigs.

So while you may not care if Tesla’s minuscule profit is 100 % due to say charging employees for parking, or from canteen operations, or Elon’s charging the sperm bank for deposits, or carbon credits, Its actually a good idea to care where the money is coming from, primarily to work out, will it keep coming, and by how much or how little, or will it stop all together
(no pun intended, oh ok it was intended just a little)

As the $ 2 Billion in carbon credits sold to FCA, will soon dry up, for reasons I’ll let you not care about.
And that $2 Billion goes 100% to the bottom line.
And that $2 Billion lets Tesla turn a sizeable loss into a disproportionate minuscule profit.

To make that $2 Billion go onto the bottom line the same way the Carbon Credit sale to FCA does, means Tesla has to make that profit from something like 200,000 extra cars sold ! So if you think that’s easy and no big deal, then yep you don’t have to care where Tesla finds its revenue or profit from. But I know one person who does, and that’s Elon . . . . . especially if he had to personally make up the shortfall . . . . .maybe not by selling his whole body . . . but just a few cc’s at a time !


P.S. You may want to ask the S&P committee who rejected including Tesla in the index,
whether they cared where Tesla's minuscule profit came from !
And why they let significantly smaller company's with profits from core activities in !

 

[OneLapper]

I balance my company's books with whatever revenue that comes in, as I see fit, to attain my business goals. Tesla is doing the same thing, on a slightly larger scale.

Example:
If you had a a short term (and completely legal) windfall of $250k, maybe you'd pay off your house, or install a pool, or pay off your credit cards, or pre-pay your taxes, or invest that money to make more money. No matter what one does with the money, they are still almost certain to take the windfall money and use it to attain their personal goal.

I would ask the critics "Why care what Tesla does with the credit sales money?" In the end, all revenue, no matter it's source, moves the company towards it's goals.

If you removed the credit sales, Tesla can raise $2b of capital in one day, or $5b as we have seen. It's just moving numbers from one place to another. The goal is the same.

 

[ajdelange]

This notion that somehow profits from the sale of credits aren't "real" is obviously desperation FUD on the part of those who are still think they can derail the juggernaut by manipulating the stock price (not that the juggernaut could not somehow be derailed). Why the notion that the credits don't have any real value is like saying that the US dollar doesn't have any real value!

 

[Luke42]

P.S. You may want to ask the S&P committee who rejected including Tesla in the index,
whether they cared where Tesla's minuscule profit came from !
And why they let significantly smaller company's with profits from core activities in !

If I remember correctly, the speculation was that they rejected Tesla because it is a highly volatile stock.

My household has made more money off of TSLA than than we ever expected, so I'm not complaining. However, Musk has been willing to bet the company in order to fund its expansion at every stage of its development, which means bigger risks and bigger rewards. So far it's worked out in the stockholders favor for the most part, but Tesla's stock is volatile and risky by any objective measure I can imagine.

I basically agree with the S&Ps decision, and it's not a permanent decision. They'll likely change their decision once Tesla demonstrates that it can sustain the criteria for inclusion over the long haul.

 

[Sirfun]

This notion that somehow profits from the sale of credits aren't "real" is obviously desperation FUD on the part of those who are still think they can derail the juggernaut by manipulating the stock price (not that the juggernaut could not somehow be derailed). Why the notion that the credits don't have any real value is like saying that the US dollar doesn't have any real value!

Yep, of course the companies paying out all that money, are writing it off as operating expenses. It's all part of the balance.