Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[jerhenderson]

I don't like your entirely reasonable logic.

Me either.... but I'll still wait for it.

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[jerhenderson]

On another thread I predicted the first CTs will be delivered September 2022 for all the reasons listed above. I have not seen anything to change my mind, would be delighted to be wrong as I am almost 600000 in line.

146 092 for me 8D

 

[mrbulk]

I for one would like to know how they will produce the CT body panels. Score, bend then weld as Sandy Munro said, or something else?

This is gonna be uncharted mfg. technology especially considering the volume production required, with these panels actually forming the very skeleton upon which everything, with their collective weight, will be hung. It's not like they're bending mild sheet steel for the exterior shells of washing machines or refrigerators. Interesting times are indeed ahead.

 

[Iacemoe]

I for one would like to know how they will produce the CT body panels. Score, bend then weld as Sandy Munro said, or something else?

This is gonna be uncharted mfg. technology especially considering the volume production required, with these panels actually forming the very skeleton upon which everything, with their collective weight, will be hung. It's not like they're bending mild sheet steel for the exterior shells of washing machines or refrigerators. Interesting times are indeed ahead.

If it were any other company besides Tesla, then I would agree with your concern. The shared manufacturing techniques and pure materials science synergy with Space X can't be ignored.

If this were a Nikola Motors venture, then I would have already laughed myself out of the room.

 

[BillyGee]

146 092 for me 8D

9,011 here. Even if there is a slowdown I'm hoping to still be up front.

 

[jerhenderson]

9,011 here. Even if there is a slowdown I'm hoping to still be up front.

what version did you reserve? Tri for me.

 

[Eye of Elon]

On the bright side, by 2023 we'll know if FSD is worth 7 grand or not.

 

[VolklKatana]

I for one would like to know how they will produce the CT body panels. Score, bend then weld as Sandy Munro said, or something else?

This is gonna be uncharted mfg. technology especially considering the volume production required, with these panels actually forming the very skeleton upon which everything, with their collective weight, will be hung. It's not like they're bending mild sheet steel for the exterior shells of washing machines or refrigerators. Interesting times are indeed ahead.

There are absolutely companies doing this for appliances, I can 100% confirm it is happening....I work for an appliance manufacturing company and can go down to the production floor below me and witness it. We use a 304 Stainless, so not all too different from the CT. The application of this process to automobiles is what has not been done before on this scale for an exoskeleton.

Imagine this on a much larger scale, basically, metal origami.

 

[Cybr on]

On the bright side, by 2023 we'll know if FSD is worth 7 grand or not.

Curious. Did price go up to 8k for FSD? Today is July 1st.

 

[TyPope]

These are good thoughts mostly. I've worked on all sorts of construction projects, but nothing this big. However, something this big has it's pluses and minuses over a smaller project.

A lot of the stuff you listed can be done simultaneously. I'm sure they have architects and engineers drawing up the blueprints as we speak. Surveying the property before they even own it. Permitting can move very quickly when the officials are "properly motivated". Training high level personnel will start while the factory is under construction, and will scale up to the floor workers as construction nears completion. They are absolutely sourcing materials now. I would be shocked if there aren't a few suppliers vying for that role. Same with battery production.

The 2 main obstacles I see right now are getting to the point of breaking ground and then the construction itself. I do think they will have at least one production line open next year, but it will probably be a MY line. I think the moment that first line is open they will begin on phase 2, just like Shanghai.

/removesprophethat

Don't forget, they renewed their agreement with Panasonic for batteries AND they are currently upgrading the Freemont factory with a new battery line. They are definitely working on that end. Oh, and they plan on pumping out MYs right away before the factory is even complete in Texas as well as batteries there as well.

 

[TyPope]

Tesla has no other projects on their plate at this point, ...

Unless you count the Semi, the Roadster, the Tesla Roof, the Tesla Solar Panels, the new battery lines, ... Big plate, Tesla has.[/QUOTE]

 

[Sputter]

One huge perk, and probably why Texas was chosen, is the comparatively lax labor and zoning laws compared to California and many other states.

I think that the speed at which CTs roll off of the completed line will surprise everyone, but I also don't know how fast that facility can be built. It definitely won't be China fast, but there are talks of using the "semi-permanent tents" like in Nevada. That would cut down the facility time, but not the tooling time.

Another great comparison is the German plant outside Berlin which has gone up astonishingly fast considering Germany is stringent about construction and zoning.

I'm optimistic about late 2021 (or sooner), but I won't be surprised if it gets delayed, I'd just be disappointed.

I might take exception to your belief that the Berlin factory, "...has gone up astonishingly fast." Unless I'm mistaken, everything one sees in the last video represents perhaps 2% of the total factory. Maybe 1%. They have moved a lot of dirt around and have poured maybe 60-footings. The actual cleared area is no more than 25% of the total land area. They have a long, long way to go.

 

[Edisonsucks]

Curious. Did price go up to 8k for FSD? Today is July 1st.

It did

 

[ReddykwRun]

I dont know for sure, some have speculated that they are having a hard time finding good employees because no body wants to live in sparks Nevada. One of the biggest considerations for this new factory is quality of life. Attracting Talent to the area easily. Almost everyone i know who has been to Austin wants to move there, some of them drop everything and actually do.

Just curious, what's the negative of living in Sparks? Looks like a nice place.

 

[BillyGee]

what version did you reserve? Tri for me.

Dual motor with full FSD. I'm staying optimistic.