Does everyone believe FSD will be viable in the next 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?

[Dids]

Which manufacturer has that? It certainly isn't Tesla. I'm guessing you have never "driven" a Tesla with autopilot or you wouldn't have made this comment.

What people don't seem to understand is that autopilot is a machine. It is very, very good at tirelessly doing the mindless repetitive tasks that driving requires. Just maintaining speed, separation from the vehicle in front of you and staying in lane requires hundreds of control inputs from the driver over even a mile. The machine can do that. Allowing it to do so reduces driver fatigue greatly and improves safety because the machine isn't subject to fatigue. The problem comes in when the machine is required to exercise judgement. It hasn't any. It cannot reason - only make Bayseian decisions based in what it observes through its relatively crude "eyes" and on the a-prioris that have been trained into it. Thus while at the end of a trip the driver who used autopilot will be more rested than if he didn't he will probably have had to wrest control from it at least once per hour.

It already works extremely well if you limit your expectations to what is reasonable to expect. If you expect it to replace a human driver it works very poorly and will continue to do so for a very long time.

TUsimple, Waymo, Embark

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[cybertruck808]

Viable from a functionality perspective? I can see that in the next 5 years. Whether FSD will be generally road legal in that timeframe is another story, and I'd bet that it wouldn't be. This is a big reason why I will almost certainly be canceling my FSD option. I can't justify paying $7,000 for a feature that (1) isn't ready yet and (2) almost certainly won't be road legal in most places anytime soon.

 

[ajdelange]

I reiterate: it is "viable" in the sense that it is capable of taking a great load off a driver on a long trip resulting in noticeably less fatigue on his part at the destination. Is that worth $7000 given that it can't take you safely home after an alcoholic excess? That's up to you to decide.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I reiterate: it is "viable" in the sense that it is capable of taking a great load off a driver on a long trip resulting in noticeably less fatigue on his part at the destination. Is that worth $7000 given that it can't take you safely home after an alcoholic excess? That's up to you to decide.

Given that the autopilot most used in long roadtrips is included in the base price of a Tesla now, I think it makes the $8,000 FSD upgrade even less practical.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I reiterate: it is "viable" in the sense that it is capable of taking a great load off a driver on a long trip resulting in noticeably less fatigue on his part at the destination. Is that worth $7000 given that it can't take you safely home after an alcoholic excess? That's up to you to decide.

It is to me.

 

[ajdelange]

Given that the autopilot most used in long roadtrips is included in the base price of a Tesla now, I think it makes the $8,000 FSD upgrade even less practical.

True, navigate on autopilot and auto lane changing don't seem to justify $8000.

 

[Crissa]

Viable from a functionality perspective? I can see that in the next 5 years.

Waymo this month has gotten permission for public self-drive taxis in Phoenix. Not a pilot program on limited pre-selected customers and routes and safety drivers... But open to the public.

So we have within five years, bam.

... after an alcoholic excess? That's up to you to decide.

It may be awhile until that's legal. You're still responsible for the car if something happens (say, someone hits your car, rather than the auto-driver screwing up) so that'll be a legal mess.

I've driven with assist features before, and it's like having a child helping you drive. They can shout if they see something wrong. Current Tesla is like driving with someone on a learner's permit. You gotta still be attentive, but they carry out most of the actions. That's still alot of work to do.

And if you want more than Autopilot, which is just fancy cruise-control with safety features, you need the FSD package. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Driving_features

Sensing lights and stop signs (which is available in some other cars) is a FSD feature, not an Autopilot one. And even at $8k I'm signing up for this. To always have another driver - even if they're not great - with you at all times is really awesome. Hey, FSD, pull the Cybertruck into that parking spot so I don't have to squeeze out of it. Thanks, FSD.

-Crissa

 

[MexiTruck]

I bought FSD-capability (“capability” is all we can buy now) on my TM3 in Canada. I’m in my 60s. I have seen the driving abilities of friends and relatives deteriorate with age. I expect improvements in the FSD-capability to offset deterioration in my driving abilities with time.

I don’t expect my TM3 to ever truly be self-driving. I was reminded of this yesterday. I was driving on a highway. There had been an accident. A traffic control person was redirecting traffi, including having some drivers back up on the highway. I don’t envision a Tesla dealing well with that.

A few years ago I was driving in Mexico. There was an accident that blocked the highway. Vehicles were redirected off of the road and through a farmer’s field. I don’t envision a Tesla dealing well with that.

Having said that, my reservation for a CT for delivery in Mexico includes FSD-capability to hopefully lock in the price. I’ll make the purchase decision again in a couple of years I guess.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Musk tweeted today that they are releasing a full self driving beta to limited testers next week.

 

[Luke42]

I'll believe FSD when I see it.

I'm not holding my breath, and the $8k will serve my family better if it's deployed elsewhere for now.

I have a relatively short commute, so I don't benefit from Autopilot the way someone in (for example) The Bay Area would.

I understand the economics of software development, so I'd be much more likely to pay $25/month to support the effort than I would be to make one big bet. Of course, I'd like to be able to run the most recent customer-safe version of the FSD software. But that's as close to the $8k as I'm willing to go until I see that they've truly cracked this nut.

 

[Balthezor]

I'll believe FSD when I see it.

I'm not holding my breath, and the $8k will serve my family better if it's deployed elsewhere for now.

I have a relatively short commute, so I don't benefit from Autopilot the way someone in (for example) The Bay Area would.

I understand the economics of software development, so I'd be much more likely to pay $25/month to support the effort than I would be to make one big bet. Of course, I'd like to be able to run the most recent customer-safe version of the FSD software. But that's as close to the $8k as I'm willing to go until I see that they've truly cracked this nut.

Completely agree. I still cannot see robotaxis in 5 years. No way regulation/insurance will approve it in that time. I have FSD with my preorder. At this time, will definitely get rid of that and spend that $7k somewhere else. Like the ATV.

 

[Dids]

Completely agree. I still cannot see robotaxis in 5 years. No way regulation/insurance will approve it in that time. I have FSD with my preorder. At this time, will definitely get rid of that and spend that $7k somewhere else. Like the ATV.

I'm curious why people think regulations have to "approve" FSD. Is FSD illegal? Wouldn't you first have to create regulations barring it to then be able to approve it? Maybe laws that state an operator has to be a licensed... And for robo-taxis car for hire regulations?

 

[Crissa]

I'm curious why people think regulations have to "approve" FSD. Is FSD illegal? Wouldn't you first have to create regulations barring it to then be able to approve it? Maybe laws that state an operator has to be a licensed... And for robo-taxis car for hire regulations?

Current regulations require someone to be driving the vehicle at attention.

So yes, regulations do not allow Full Self Driving.

-Crissa

 

[Dids]

Current regulations require someone to be driving the vehicle at attention.

So yes, regulations do not allow Full Self Driving.

-Crissa

Someone has to be in the driver's seat at attention. Not drive it....

 

[Balthezor]

What's the point of robotaxis if there's a driver you have to pay to sit there. Are the customers considered the driver if they sit in the driver seat? How can the robotaxi go pick them up?