Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk

[David R Kirkpatrick]

Here are my thoughts:
1) Your number in line can be deceiving for several reasons-
a. Many people put in several orders because it was cheap and will cancel one or two of them.
b. A Trimotor order will move ahead in line before Single and Dual motor orders.
c. Many orders will be canceled out of frustration and lack of commitment.
2) Having already owned a Model S and seeing the tech become passé in three months, I can testify that that is a difficult pill to swallow. Waiting for the most up-to-date tech is definitely worth the wait.
3) Waiting for new battery tech is also a no-brainer and will pay back in a million (sic) ways.
4) Remember that Tesla is reviewing design and specs during this time and making revisions according to their own research as well as customer thoughts.
5) Tesla has shifted their tactics to underpromising and overdelivering. Look at Model Y, for example. Maybe there is a surprise in store for us.

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[bigrin]

Well being 20, 000th in line i hope i don't have to wait 2 to 4 years. I have tesla solar, tesla battery back up. I am just tired of wasting time at the pump. I want to just go on with my day with free energy for my transportation and not waste time at a stinky pump any longer. Fingers crossed!

John, how can you tell for sure what number you are in line? Thx... Bigrin

 

[bigrin]

This is totally my plan. Run my side gig for the sole purpose of accumulating Cybertruck cash. In 3 years, I should have $45k ready to cash out. I’m planning to order a cold rolled stainless steel suitcase to carry the cash to the Tesla dealer. I’ll probably need some Tron style sunglasses as well. CT people are a unique bunch.

Go Luke Go. Right with ya.

 

[K Doc Brown 007]

I think based on past production targets and numbers it will be 25K the first year 2021 and ramp up from that point in 2022 to 75K. Bigger batteries factories are coming. Well know more on investor day when he talks about cell production and breakthroughs.

?my prediction is production starts October/ November 2021.... 10k units in 2021.... I agree with 75k in 2022

 

[ReddykwRun]

John, how can you tell for sure what number you are in line? Thx... Bigrin

112744100 minus your RS# = your place inline


How to tell your place in line for the Cybertruck based on your order #:

"It's just a sequential number, starting at about 112744100. So subtract that from your number for your (approximate) place in line.

Keeping in mind the rollout will be regional, so your position in line is only good for your rollout region."

 

[Cyber1qhorsey]

The CT is what gets me 'woke' each morning, other than giggling hysterically about Tesla's stock price! The wonder about the CT is its adventure in everything, (this thing could go to Mars!) and, hopefully, next gen batteries! Three to four years is fine by me. My concern is that Tesla will fail if it can't solve simpler batteries...

 

[Coolbreeze704]

My options selected were dual motor, FSD and neurallink. What a sweet connection it will be!

 

[Fenestrator]

I am not expecting to see my CT (near the bottom of the reservation list) for at least 5 years. I just hope Tesla will honor the pricing I reserved my CT at. Five years, inflation, and whatever will create an odd financial situation for Musk trying to make products with 5 or more year old pricing with current pricing on supplies and labor.

 

[Saskateam]

I see your concern on maintaining the price of the CT. To combat this concern is the knowledge that the cost per kWh goes down every year and will continue to. With the CT cost being mostly battery cost with fewer other costs the CT may actually come down in price. I may have my dates and costs off a bit however in 2010 the cost per kWh if battery storage was over $1000/kWh and in 2020 it is expected to be less than $150/kWh. Elon may even announce Tesla has reached the $100/kWh to build the pack at the upcoming battery day.

 

[scottysize]

Hopefully I'm close enough to get mine the first year, but if not, that is fine. I'll just keep saving up and possibly pay cash for the first time in my life.

 

[DeckardsUnicorn]

When asked by Gene Munster, from Loup Ventures, about how many Cybertrucks Tesla would be able to deliver and its production costs, Musk said this:



The unofficial pre-order reservation list is estimating 487,270 orders so far. If we divide this by four, we get 121,000/yr, which could be a preview # of how many Cybertrucks Musks expects to produce per year.

The constraints on production result not only from the production output limit of Giga factories, but also battery production capacity. Musk said:


Of the upcoming production / factory pipe, Musk says:

We’ll all be ok. The preorder list is baked with tons of unwarranted demand. There’s a lot that’ll get filtered out in the next two years.

 

[Eye of Elon]

Do you all think that if we are relatively early in line, living on the west coast, that we might be able to to sell our Cybertruck to hipsters for a profit? Asking for a friend.

 

[Eye of Elon]

My options selected were dual motor, FSD and neurallink. What a sweet connection it will be!

Neuralink! I just wanted Starlink, I wasn't thinking Big Picture, like you.

 

[David R Kirkpatrick]

Do you all think that if we are relatively early in line, living on the west coast, that we might be able to to sell our Cybertruck to hipsters for a profit? Asking for a friend.

This is an odd idea.
Usually, any new car or truck only depreciates for the short term after purchase (maybe only a little, but probably less than new), the CT may not be available for delivery immediately, but they are being manufactured...they are not out of production and anyone can get one, just a matter of time. Even hipsters will knw this fact.

 

[Zhe Wiz]

This is an odd idea.
Usually, any new car or truck only depreciates for the short term after purchase (maybe only a little, but probably less than new), the CT may not be available for delivery immediately, but they are being manufactured...they are not out of production and anyone can get one, just a matter of time. Even hipsters will knw this fact.

Yeah, but how is that different than the latest hot electronic device? People pay a premium because they have too much money and too little patience. I suppose it’s possible that reselling for a profit might be possible for a short time. Seems like too much trouble to me.