Cybertruck design & engineering complete. First deliveries still this year.

[Cyberman]

I gotta say, that is a hell of an exciting headline to read. "Cybertruck design and engineering complete". Those are epic words, man. Give me butterflies in my stomach, just thinking, they have it all figured out. Probably popped out a dozen or so actual production models out at Giga Nevada in the last month or two. Holy crap. Giga Austin will be complete by May. Ready, set... go!

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[speach]

... I'm fine with that as long as they solve galvanic corrosion.

I was under the impression we solved that with dielectrics a long time ago. I feel I must be missing something. Is there a genuine concern over galvanic corrosion between the aluminum frame and the SS exoskeleton that wouldn't be solved the same way we combine all sorts of mixed metal systems with dielectrics?

 

[ranjames]

Negligible effect. The truck market is what, 3 million a year? GM and Ford will have EV pickups around 2024 so there's a narrow window for Tesla and "the others" to establish their presence. As Sandy Munro points out, brand loyalty is "unbelievable" among truck owners.
Me? I'm more agnostic about brands and my Tesla reservation is a hedge. I mean, with battery tech changing so rapidly I'm having second thoughts about dumping a lot of $ into something that's obsolescent in 3 years.

Agree - You should not assume brand loyalty will slow the Cyber Truck purchases. I have been with FORD since 1974 and have owned 4 Ford Trucks and the last two were F350 Super Duty Diesels. When the Cyber Truck first debut hit, I thought no way not me... and within 4 months I reserved one and was converted... Yes, I traded by brand loyalty... I think Tesla performance can pull the brand.

 

[speach]

...As Sandy Munro points out, brand loyalty is "unbelievable" among truck owners.

I have observed "brand loyalty" is for many better referred to as "brand animosity". I can recall several Chevy/Ford/Dodge folks who 20 years ago asserted they wouldn't be caught dead in the other two later bought a Tundra or a Titan. It's not that they were brand loyal, but grew up hating the other two and had no problem going with a better product that wasn't a Chevy/Ford/Dodge down the road.

I imagine the same is will be true now for those loyal to any petro-based brand - someone who was a "Toyota Guy" might never consider a Nissan or Chevy/Ford/Dodge, but would have no issue with a Rivian or a Tesla brand, provided the actual vehicle appealed to them.

I also believe a lot of people misunderstand why some people buy a Tesla - it is not because they must have everything that a Tesla represents. But for much of what Tesla does (so far) it is way out in front. If someone built an alternative EV that bested the Tesla in 3 of the 4: range, acceleration, cost, and autopilot, there is an appreciable portion of Tesla buyers that would welcome the option.

I am not brand loyal. I have had a Harley Davidson F150 (supercharged), a Z71 Avalanche, and now an AWD Escalade ESV. I would prefer the EV modern equivalent of any of these to the CT I ordered IF the range, acceleration, cost, and autopilot were all comparable or better to the CT. At the same cost, I'd bet the deposit neither range, acceleration or AP will be comparable for the electric F150. That is why I bought the CT.

However... once I decided to buy a CT, it's kind of growing on me.

 

[intimidator]

This is great news. If true we should see some on the road testing fairly soon. Maybe that promised tour of the states...

I want my CyberTruck yesterday, but I am not optimistic you will see any CTs on the road testing "soon". The plant isn't built yet. Once the plant is built. Then they will install the new equipment they ordered, and then they can make a few pre-production models. Unless they hand build a few in Freemont, the first pre-production mules running around on streets will most likely be in the fall.

 

[intimidator]

Business Insider. CyberTruck update mirrors posting.

"If we get lucky, we'll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022," he said.

Exactly. Thank you. In reality, it sounds like a handful of CTs around Christmas...and then in 2022 actual production of the CyberTruck will begin. And note GigaTexas is going to be building the Model Y as well. Probably before CT production starts up, so the vehicles coming out of GigaTexas in 2022 will be split between Model Ys and CyberTrucks. I wouldn't be surprised to see only 75,000 to 100,000 CTs built in 2022. A lot of people will still be waiting for their CT in 2023 and 2024.

 

[program422]

I have observed "brand loyalty" is for many better referred to as "brand animosity". I can recall several Chevy/Ford/Dodge folks ....

Excellent point(s)!
If I am able to run into you, beer is on me anytime!

 

[intimidator]

Yes, and they will have worse range and price.

In 2024 Tesla will have like half a million units capacity while those two will be putting out a tenth of that together.

-Crissa

Tesla fanboys believe that Tesla will take over the entire Automotive World, tomorrow. Execs at GM and Ford think Tesla is puny at less than 500,000 units in the US in 2020 and that they can kick Tesla's ass.

The truth is somewhere in between. Ford and GM will sell a lot of ICE pickups over the next 5 years. And they will also transition to electric pickups over time. (I think Ford teaming up with Rivian gives them a better shot. GM might fall on their face).

Tesla's biggest problem is factories. Or lack of them. It takes 2 years to find the land, buy it, and then build a factory. If they want to crush Ford and GM they need to start at least one more factory build in the US by the end of this year. They can't out sell Ford and GM with just GigaTexas. It is simply not possible. GigaTulsa needs to happen. And maybe GigaSouth Carolina.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, the truth in the middle is probably true here! They need more like a million to two million capacity eventually. Americans buy a lot of trucks.

-Crissa

 

[intimidator]

I will be watching the video when Austin takes delivery of this monster casting press. The concrete foundation must be massive to support this metal beast.

It will be interesting to see what happens to F150/Silverado/Ram sales after the Cybertruck goes into mass production next year.

It will be interesting to see what happens to F150/Silverado/Ram sales after the Cybertruck goes into mass production next year.

Not that much. Tesla can't build enough (yet).

It is possible that Tesla builds a handful of CTs in December of this year. And then only 75,000 CTs in 2022. Ford and GM sell several million. In 2023 maybe Tesla delivers 200,000 CTs? Still not putting a big dent in Ford and GM sales. If Tesla can get to delivering 500,000 CTs in 2025, then yes they will really start to feel it. Rivian will be chipping away at the same time. 2025 will tell the story.

 

[speach]

Excellent point(s)!
If I am able to run into you, beer is on me anytime!

Thank you - I'll take you up on that! It may have to be next time you're running through Mobile, as I don't see me traveling through the Texas panhandle anytime soon. ;-)

 

[Crissa]

2025 will tell the story.

I think we're looking at 2023 as being the tip over point. When the big companies are looking to build, collectively, not as many EV trucks as Tesla does. And everyone will have gotten to see if the Cybertruck or Rivian are successful or not.

-Crissa

 

[azjohn]

It will be interesting to see what happens to F150/Silverado/Ram sales after the Cybertruck goes into mass production next year.

Not that much. Tesla can't build enough (yet).

It is possible that Tesla builds a handful of CTs in December of this year. And then only 75,000 CTs in 2022. Ford and GM sell several million. In 2023 maybe Tesla delivers 200,000 CTs? Still not putting a big dent in Ford and GM sales. If Tesla can get to delivering 500,000 CTs in 2025, then yes they will really start to feel it. Rivian will be chipping away at the same time. 2025 will tell the story.

At least Ford and GM are showing some interest in a BEV truck, Dodge on the other hand may be the odd man out

 

[Cybercarlson]

hey can't out sell Ford and GM with just GigaTexas. It is simply not possible. GigaTulsa needs to happen. And maybe GigaSouth Carolina.

@intimidator you are right Tesla needs to build more capacity fast.....

But why do you assume it has to be at a new site?

Take GiGa Berlin (actually Brandenburg / in a different substate):
They have started a year ago with a goal of 250K or so.....
But if you look at the rate they have cleared additional "tree plantation" (it is not realy an old divers forest). This had to be done before March if you want to build in 2021...

It happened after the (2) additional raising of capital.
I assume they have allready given the go ahead for a second and maybe even a third stage.
Tesla just didn't announce it, yet.....
Maybe they have respect for the still clean underpants of VW,DB,BMW....?

Now back to the US of A:

As INTIMIDATOR pointed out It takes time to find a suitable location, buy land,etc.

Those boxes are allredy checked at GiGa Texas.
The funds to build another factory are in the TESLA Bank
off topic: btw. why has @ELON not implemented a TESLAZip2/X.com ? All the customers for a start are in TESLAs database.....?

IMHO it would be far easyer and faster to make use of the vast Texas Teslaland area and just build a second factory there.

There are only a few reasons I can think of why this has not happened yet.

There is a limited amount of building companies, so they have to finish GiGaone Texas first.
A lot of skilled workers are needed and they have to move to Texas first..
Tesla has all the "incentives" in Texas allready cashed in.
But those millions in another state do not outweight the timeadvantage in Texas.

I believe we will see an exponential groth in production capacity in 2021 - 24. A lot of that groth will be at the today existing locations.

 

[LoPro]

Tesla needs even more potential capacity even in disregard of GM/Ford, because, especially in Europe where trucks aren’t common on private hands, people not having thought of trucks before preordered a CT. Assuming Tesla choose to (or are able to) fulfill that market too.

Also assuming US truck owners are conservative maybe the CT won’t replace as many trucks as we think but still sell a boatload (actually many). Then all the mentioned manufacturers of ICE trucks are all pretty safe for 10 years as it’s not entirely the same marketplace. And CT can be a success without tearing much down of Ford/GM/etc.