Clickbait or valid prediction? "Tesla Cybertruck Will Be Ford's Demise Towards Bankruptcy"

[Pluto]

Think of U S auto manufacturers as U S motorcycle manufacturers . I remember if you rode anything but a Harley people made fun of you. EV drivers will be made fun of for a while especially the truck guys . But Elon MUST stay diligent and make the best vehicle in the world .

Advertisement

 

[cybertrucktruckguy]

Yes...and No.

The Cybertruck itself isn't going to bankrupt Ford BUT a convergence of disruptive forces in personal transportation combined with too much debt and some serious legacy pension and healthcare obligations could. If the Cybertruck and some of the other EV SUV and Truck alternatives start to eat into the best part of their high volume, high profit Truck and SUV market, it could create a bit of a death spiral that eventually forces them into bankruptcy re-organization. We're also seeing a slowing in global auto sales in general as a result of increasing urbanization and decreasing family formation trends. CONVERGENCE.

There is a difference between Bankruptcy and closing your doors. GM went through Bankruptcy 10 years ago and...still here.

I don't think Ford as brand or manufacturer is going away anytime soon due to it's strong brands and it's place in the American economy. Think 'Too big to fail' kind of status. They will get a lot of federal and state support to keep their doors open. That said, it may need a financial 'time out' in order to reset itself to retool for the EV future. I also think that if it were to go through the bankruptcy process in order to reset itself, it would become a very appealing takeover or partner target for some of the other high tech companies that keep sniffing around vehicles and transport like Apple, Google, Amazon or Uber. Such a marriage might be able to help reset the culture to compete better in the age of Tech. The Chinese gaming company TenCent owns a large chunk of Tesla, partly because they see vehicles as the next, biggest smart device. This next revolution in autos will be about much more than electrification.

Given their heavy investment in Rivian, I think Ford sees the writing on the wall. They just need to figure out how they navigate from here to there.

 

[Kim Best]

CLICK BAIT. Ford still has way more die hard fans. I am not one of them But i know people who utterly refuse to by anything else no matter how reliable they really are. They are convinced nothing could possibly be better.

Well they’re gonna find out pretty soon eh? Maybe the decision will be made for them.. when Ford goes broke!

 

[lukefrisbee]

If Ford goes bankrupt one of the straws on the Camel's back will be the Cyber. It will influence Ford's numbers, in the pick-up, SUV, and Van sales figures. The Cyber ain't (just) a truck.

 

[Ehninger1212]

Ford Employs around 100,000 people in the US alone.. do we REALLY want them to fail? NO, we want them to change.

 

[Dirt Worker]

But the iPhone directly competed with Nokia and Motorola products. The Cybertruck does not compete with anything Ford produces.

Tesla may be considered direct competition to Ford; the Cybertruck not so much.

Conclusion: clickbait.

The 14,000 tow rating is the reason I am purchasing a CT over a diesel rig. I most definitely think that it will affect the truck sales shares of Ford, GM, Dodge and Toyota. With pre-orders nearing half a million a huge bite out of the truck market is taken. One thing that I am concerned with is that new companies need to learn how to grow and adapt to sales. I don't see how a company can create the infrastructure to manufacture at this level without a few hitches and glitches. Most of the technology is proven but the truck is an entirely new design.

 

[TyPope]

It all depends of Ford's ability to convert to EV's, and how many times Ford will get bailed out by the government. It isn't like the previous times, where they got bailed out, or a free loan, where their sales dipped due to high gas prices, their ICE vehicles sales are going to dip and dip and dip again. Ford fans are ford fans because no other truck is 10% better, or at least provable to them. Everything changes with EV, most people already understand that maintenance will be less, and obvious EV's will be faster. You don't have to believe me, but think of this, if Chevy had a truck that was three times faster than Ford, and had less break downs and maintenance costs, would people still be buying more Fords than Chevys? Final case, back in 70's and 80's, most people were buy american only, don't buy those Japanese cars, but slowly and surely people were drawn to the more reliable, and more fuel efficient cars. Fords only hope is to come up with an EV that is within 10 or 20% as good as Tesla's EV's.

Ford has managed to avoid having to be bailed out by the government and it doesn't look likely that they'll have to be when this pandemic ends either. They have a lot of cash on hand and have already completed the engineering (almost, completely) on their F150 Electric which we should see by the end of this year. They already have a production facility that can make them. I think they'll be okay. Now, if there's any truth behind this F150 Hybrid and it's 10 miles of electric range, well... that's an odd story I'd like to hear. How is that even viable? I know the first Plug-in hybrid Prius's were low electrical mileage vehicles as well and they've managed but these days, it seems like just too little.

Hopefully, for the economy, all the big American companies will adapt and survive. Like them or not, they employ a LOT of our fellow countrymen, friends, and family.

 

[TyPope]

The 14,000 tow rating is the reason I am purchasing a CT over a diesel rig. I most definitely think that it will affect the truck sales shares of Ford, GM, Dodge and Toyota. With pre-orders nearing half a million a huge bite out of the truck market is taken. One thing that I am concerned with is that new companies need to learn how to grow and adapt to sales. I don't see how a company can create the infrastructure to manufacture at this level without a few hitches and glitches. Most of the technology is proven but the truck is an entirely new design.

I really don't think the 14,000 tow rating will be worth very much. Physics comes to play a little too much with electrics. We can only store so much power in batteries and just can't tow much very far. Now, getting the boat to a nearby lake? Yes. Towing a 12,000 5th wheel across country? You'll be stopping every hour or two to recharge. I can make it about 400 miles between stops with my F350 Diesel... I'd LOVE to be able to get 250-300 miles out of the Cybertruck towing.

Conversion factors: 1Kwh = 2412 btu
1 gallon of diesel fuel = 139,000 BTU of energy or 40.73 Kwh I usually refuel at 6 gallons till empty when towing (30 gallons used) That means I used 40.73 Kwh *30 gallons = 1,221 Kwh to go 350 miles. That's 3.48 Kwh per mile. (this is with a 30% efficiency at converting diesel fuel to mileage)

The Cybertruck (I'll call it 100% efficient) will take 1.16 Kwh/mile to tow that same load. Leaving 20% battery remaining gives you 46.4 miles to empty for safety. I mean, you can't run it to 0% battery remaining.

The remaining 80% battery (I'm assuming you can charge up to 100% safely), will get you 160 Kwh /1.16 kwh/mile = 137.93 miles of range.

137.93 miles of range is assuming 200Kwh battery, same weight as my set-up while towing 14,000 pounds... which happens to be my 7,038 lb truck, 5,000 lb Exxis trailer with 9,000 lbs of household crap... (we moved quite often with the Air Force but have retired after 24 years. Well, I'm not very good at being retired as I'm still working)

I REALLY hope battery day announces better batteries for the Cybertruck that will put it over 600 miles of range and 200-250 of range while towing a lot. Actually, it'd be nice if they announced range as a function of weight (eg. 750 miles unloaded, 500 miles towing 5,000 lbs...)

Anyway, thanks for reading this far. I take criticism well enough as long as it's constructive. Let me know if my math is off, how to fix it.

 

[TyPope]

Yes...and No.

The Cybertruck itself isn't going to bankrupt Ford BUT a convergence of disruptive forces in personal transportation combined with too much debt and some serious legacy pension and healthcare obligations could. If the Cybertruck and some of the other EV SUV and Truck alternatives start to eat into the best part of their high volume, high profit Truck and SUV market, it could create a bit of a death spiral that eventually forces them into bankruptcy re-organization. We're also seeing a slowing in global auto sales in general as a result of increasing urbanization and decreasing family formation trends. CONVERGENCE.

There is a difference between Bankruptcy and closing your doors. GM went through Bankruptcy 10 years ago and...still here.

I don't think Ford as brand or manufacturer is going away anytime soon due to it's strong brands and it's place in the American economy. Think 'Too big to fail' kind of status. They will get a lot of federal and state support to keep their doors open. That said, it may need a financial 'time out' in order to reset itself to retool for the EV future. I also think that if it were to go through the bankruptcy process in order to reset itself, it would become a very appealing takeover or partner target for some of the other high tech companies that keep sniffing around vehicles and transport like Apple, Google, Amazon or Uber. Such a marriage might be able to help reset the culture to compete better in the age of Tech. The Chinese gaming company TenCent owns a large chunk of Tesla, partly because they see vehicles as the next, biggest smart device. This next revolution in autos will be about much more than electrification.

Given their heavy investment in Rivian, I think Ford sees the writing on the wall. They just need to figure out how they navigate from here to there.

I think Ford will not need federal support. They have electrics in the pipeline starting with the Mach E and the F150 for next year. That gets them into the CUV and Truck electric markets. They'll follow with an SUV. They also have $37B cash-in-hand to help weather the storm. While their stock is taking a beating, they still manage to pay dividends, one of the few companies that still does that.

They've seen the writing on the wall, I suppose and they've started moving on it. They aren't as quick as we'd all like but they are making moves.

 

[Cyberman]

As soon as the Cybertruck is produced Ford is going to be in trouble. I've been looking for a replacement for my 03 F150 for a couple of years, but was turned off by the idea of spending fifty G's for the truck I want. For that kind of money I may as well get the dual motor cybertruck. My F-150 is so rusted out due to bad roof design, every time it rains it gets wet inside because I don't want to spend another $2,000 to have the roof steel replaced. Hello Cybertruck

 

[Cyberman]

I really don't think the 14,000 tow rating will be worth very much. Physics comes to play a little too much with electrics. We can only store so much power in batteries and just can't tow much very far. Now, getting the boat to a nearby lake? Yes. Towing a 12,000 5th wheel across country? You'll be stopping every hour or two to recharge. I can make it about 400 miles between stops with my F350 Diesel... I'd LOVE to be able to get 250-300 miles out of the Cybertruck towing.

Conversion factors: 1Kwh = 2412 btu
1 gallon of diesel fuel = 139,000 BTU of energy or 40.73 Kwh I usually refuel at 6 gallons till empty when towing (30 gallons used) That means I used 40.73 Kwh *30 gallons = 1,221 Kwh to go 350 miles. That's 3.48 Kwh per mile. (this is with a 30% efficiency at converting diesel fuel to mileage)

The Cybertruck (I'll call it 100% efficient) will take 1.16 Kwh/mile to tow that same load. Leaving 20% battery remaining gives you 46.4 miles to empty for safety. I mean, you can't run it to 0% battery remaining.

The remaining 80% battery (I'm assuming you can charge up to 100% safely), will get you 160 Kwh /1.16 kwh/mile = 137.93 miles of range.

137.93 miles of range is assuming 200Kwh battery, same weight as my set-up while towing 14,000 pounds... which happens to be my 7,038 lb truck, 5,000 lb Exxis trailer with 9,000 lbs of household crap... (we moved quite often with the Air Force but have retired after 24 years. Well, I'm not very good at being retired as I'm still working)

I REALLY hope battery day announces better batteries for the Cybertruck that will put it over 600 miles of range and 200-250 of range while towing a lot. Actually, it'd be nice if they announced range as a function of weight (eg. 750 miles unloaded, 500 miles towing 5,000 lbs...)

Anyway, thanks for reading this far. I take criticism well enough as long as it's constructive. Let me know if my math is off, how to fix it.

Don't worry. Your new Cyber trailer will come with its own battery pack with enough juice to be towed without affecting the master Vehicles battery. It may be a little pricey though, battery packs ain't cheap

 

[rr6013]

CyberTruck is to Tesla as Starship is to SpaceX - failure is not an option.

Cybertruck is generational. It is not your father's F-150. Its aspirations are futuristic - millennial. F-150 pickups are individualistic - BabyBoomer . Millennial aspirations are driving (sic) Cybertruck success even though it is BabyBoomer early-adopters lighting up CT first sales. Definitively, Tesla design for Cybertruck is on the right side of history.

Clickbait or no, FORD peaked, suspended passenger car production except for two models. It exists for the F-150 loyal buyer, fleets and Mustang afficianado - BabyBoomers. What they have for the millennial generation that is aspiration for their father's pickup or mustang. That's alot but not what Tesla have for this next generation who singlehandedly will save the planet from ICE and go to Mars.

Tesla have not peaked and SpaceX isn't done yet. Both will fail until they succeed. Ford has already succeeded. It's written in history. Tesla are writing theirs as we will witness. Its successes breed success as people want to be part of saving the planet and going where no man has gone before.

Ford success is in achieving success for its own brand. Tesla success is the larger goal larger than itself and SpaceX goal is beyond those of the individual.

Musk selling his portfolio of homes aligns Elon's personal aspirations with that of his companies and its customers.

 

[kev12345]

f-150 won't even notice as long as cybertruck looks like a weirdo-mobile.

 

[Bigvbear]

Car buyers tend to be brand loyal. Also the wide adoption of electric vehicles is still a ways off (if ever)
Tesla has a lot of obstacles to overcome before they can take more than a small fraction of market share from Ford.

Some of the bigger ones are
Price
showrooms/car lots vs build to order.....most car buyers go to the dealer to buy, not order online n wait months for their car to be made. (NOT a CT only issue for Tesla's)
Fear/lack of understanding of Technology (let's be realistic, good ole boy truck buyers are not the sharpest tools in the shed)
Durability of the tech - will the touch screen survive long term use by gritty dirty hands/gloves?
Range anxiety (especially in rural areas where trucks are mostly used) it's easy to get a lift to town to get a can of gas if you run out, no so much a battery pack/generator.
Charge time vs Fillup at the pump
Accessories / Mods very few keep their truck stock


Do i think there will be some adopters...yes...but i think they will be more "urban" truck users than your farmer/rancher country types, which is the core of truck buyers.

 

[mrbulk]

The Cybertruck is revolutionary rather than evolutionary.
Think of Ford (and the other legacy ICE makers) as having had all the time in the world to perfect (and I mean PERFECT) the cassette tape. A hundred years or so starting with Daimler.
Then Tesla comes along and invents the CD which results in mad sales (see Model 3, and soon Y).
So ICE makers start losing sales to Tesla and are now scrambling to make CDs and just as they start to get the hang of it, they find out nobody is really buying many of them (iPace, eTron, et al, still have New models left over from 2019).
I even predict the same results for the Ford MachE, because again these are all still CDs.
Meanwhile Tesla advances into thumb drives (see Battery Day coming up).
When legacy makers finally try to figure out how to make thumb drives, Tesla ventures into The Cloud (Cybertruck).

This time is different, it's not a recession caused by bad fiscal policy or anything. Instead, it's a whole new product in which Tesla has gained a monumental, insurmountable headstart because ICE makers sat on their fat complacent butts for faaar too long.
So there may indeed be bailouts.

So as soon as I decide what it will be, I will be reserving my CT vanity plate...

Just my humble opinion...