Cybertruck (Orders) Demand Would Take 3-4 Years Production to Fulfill Says Musk

[scottysize]

112744100 minus your RS# = your place inline


How to tell your place in line for the Cybertruck based on your order #:

"It's just a sequential number, starting at about 112744100. So subtract that from your number for your (approximate) place in line.

Keeping in mind the rollout will be regional, so your position in line is only good for your rollout region."

By doing that I'm around 116k. So probably year 2

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[BuzzMega]

How do we interpret order numbers as a function of priority? I’ve ordered the rwd one which is anticipated to start being built in late 2022.

 

[Terminator]

I did order the dual motor with FSD So mines will be # 63,537 when I do this calculation so I might be getting it by end of 2022 ?

 

[David R Kirkpatrick]

Yeah, but how is that different than the latest hot electronic device? People pay a premium because they have too much money and too little patience. I suppose it’s possible that reselling for a profit might be possible for a short time. Seems like too much trouble to me.

Yea, I agree, too much trouble to be worth the effort. Actually, the CT is the latest hot electronic device! I’m standing in line for two years, then I’m paying a lot of money without even a test drive, getting insurance, registration, plates, and hoping that I can scam some newbe for a profit? Where will I advertise? Dream on...aaahhh CT dreams.

 

[Fenestrator]

Not surprised. However this may be an issue to Tesla having launched the CT to tumultuous success in initial feedback and hundreds of thousands of reservations netting millions of dollars, how many will decline these reservations once they know there’s a realistically three plus year wait? Particularly with folks like me who are near the bottom of the near half million reservations. Will all those who reserved their CT and paid the $100 deposit still want the product after waiting four years? Did the waiting list for the Model S when it was introduced more than a decade ago see a loss in deposits due to that time delay getting that model to market? Time will tell if Tesla launched too early or not.

 

[Mule Ferguson]

Thanking about buying the Roadster to play with.. At least they come in red to match the X and 3

 

[kdn]

CT better than we can imagine. well I hope I can put a plow on it and with better batteries in the works I hope the range goes to 600!

 

[lukefrisbee]

here's the deal concerning how many will bail before buying
If it comes out and is what they say it is and more then there will NOT be many cancellations.
That being said. I bought 110 shares of TSLA in hopes that it grows enough in two years ( I bought it 2 weeks ago and it is up over $15k) that I can pay for the Cyber with the profit. And if the Cyber sucks the money won't be there to buy it (and then my mind is made up for me) because I waited till the end of December to place an order so the bugs would be worked out before I became a test rat.

 

[Mule Ferguson]

CT better than we can imagine. well I hope I can put a plow on it and with better batteries in the works I hope the range goes to 600!

A Tesla owner mowing his pasture in KY.

 

[Ludus]

Elon is usually very literal about these estimates so 3-4 years from the start of production takes into account the expected ramp-up pace for a radically new style of body manufacturing that amounts to re-inventing a lot of how the industry has worked for a century. If current orders as expected are 500k, that might be 2 years to go from startup to 150k/yr, producing about 150k, then doubling every year so 3-4 to get to 500k produced. Of course at that point they might make 600k, 1.2M, 2.4M the next 3 years.

If it works there might be CyberCars as ultra tough AV robo cabs, CyberVans, CyberSemis.

From Tesla’s POV 500k orders is as many as they need so no reason to bring it up.

 

[ReddykwRun]

Paid off makes the ride that much sweeter

Dave Ramsey would agree.

 

[DMC-81]

I will wait. My place in line is 467,xxx based on the above. After doing some quick math to back out the single motor reservations and a conservative 15% in cancellations, I figure my net place is roughly 370,xxx. I purposely waited to order as I wanted to:
1) give the production line ample time / experience
2) hedge toward a possible million mile battery / extra range
3) give more time with my current daily driver which I'm not ready to give up just yet.

 

[Zhe Wiz]

He didn't say it would take 3-4 years to build the pre-orders. He said it would take 3-4 years to meet demand. Subtle, but important difference.

 

[bfdog]

He didn't say it would take 3-4 years to build the pre-orders. He said it would take 3-4 years to meet demand. Subtle, but important difference.

But he said "make...demand," right? If this quote is accurate:

"We don't comment on those detailed numbers, except the demand is just far more than we could reasonably make in the space of, I don't know, three or four years, something like that."

I read that as "400,000-500,000 is far more [trucks] than we could make in 3-4 years (starting now when we've only made a prototype and the battery tech doesn't exist yet, nor the generator, ATV, truck tech, tonneau, glass, solar panels, self driving tech (approved), body production tech, motors, gov. compliance, etc." I think he's counting on 2 years ramping up (and getting things designed and approved) and averaging at most 5K a week (250K a year) after a period of sorting out production. So at the end of 4 years no chance the pre-orders (in today's numbers) are finished. That's what Musk said.

 

[Zhe Wiz]

But it would be erroneous to think that "preorders" is the only demand in the next 3-4 years. I'm sure he's using preorders to estimate demand over the next 3-4 years, but it's not 100% of demand in the next 4 years. It's very difficult to discern exactly what he meant by his statement. It's open to interpretation. I just can't imagine that he's saying it would take 3-4 years to build existing preorders.