Future battery swaps

[Tinker71]

I foresee cars becoming more interactive with their environment and each other. As they do, they become more and more like smartphone and tablets. I kept my Samsung galaxy Note2 for eight years by replacing the battery which must be a record. In it’s final few years, there were many apps that I could no longer use because apps and operating system support dropped off at different times and they didn’t like to talk to each other any longer. In some cases I could not access my data. As Tesla which is a forward looking company will have more and more models, the cost and effort to maintain support for older ones will become harder to justify and may drop off at some point. As our EVs get older, the body and battery may last a million miles but the brain will become more irrelevant to the point that even government may require safety features in your vehicle that Tesla is unwilling to go back and add to the old models and you probably won’t have the knowledge and access to do it. At that point you will see more and more new cars with features that you want and your CT will look like the old noble prize winner that now have dementia. You will want to replace it with that personal Falcon 222 because you just have to have that hover feature for your off-road hobby. I should note that I got my crystal ball at a yard sale. Take all of this with a grain of salt.

You may be right, however I am banking that by shear volume of bodies produced plus the longevity of the body and drivetrain that a huge 3rd party will develop. I am surprised by the resiliency of the 3rd party guys like the Jeep/Mustang modifiers etc. and they are only offered for vehicles with runs of 10,000? We may have 1,000,000 CT bodies on the road in 10 years.

Baring a hover feature, with existing 95% efficiency on motors, I am not sure how much change we could really expect except the batteries and charging and brains in the next 20 years.

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[Tinker71]

Say there is a massive improvement in battery tech in the next 6 years and some 3rd party could make a battery with 2x the density of current Tesla tech at sat $50 per kWh at the cell level Can anybody else envision grinding out /removing their existing Lion batteries and swapping in new batteries that can also mimic the structural capacity of the Tesla batteries?

Ignoring the voided warranty, service issues, cooling and computer interface for a moment, say you could fit 420 kWh of new batteries in the same cavity. 420 x $75 ($25 for the pack) plus $5000 install would only be $36,500 and get a 1000 mile range.

So in theory I could cheap out and get the dual motor now (2023), drive it for a couple years, waste the remaining pack life, install the new pack in 2027 for a total cost of $86,500 and have 1000 miles of range. Crazy what ifs but with in the realm of the battery cost curve.

Thoughts?

Ideally one would repurpose the battery pack if it could be removed without damage. So I am a little more clear. Save $20,000 at first purchase by sticking with the dual motor and smaller battery tech, this makes it a little easier to pay for the upgrade.

I am also assuming a leap in tech like solid state batteries at a low cost. I am not sure there is a roadmap to double density with lithium.

 

[Crissa]

The structural battery will mean a new pack will have to have structural properties. But since packs have to be designed for a specific model anyhow, that won't be an issue. You just replace the entire piece, just like any body piece.

-Crissa

 

[Gvardaman]

Also, if the price or the value of the FSD continues to increase, as Elon has indicated, there will be tremendous incentive to keep these vehicles on the road.
if FSD is not transferable, but purchasing it with a new vehicle is an additional 20k (or higher, Elon has said it would be “worth 100k”), adding a replacement pack or some additional batteries would be a relative bargain!

 

[Tinker71]

The structural battery will mean a new pack will have to have structural properties. But since packs have to be designed for a specific model anyhow, that won't be an issue. You just replace the entire piece, just like any body piece.

-Crissa

Like many I am very interested in the cavity that the battery is placed in. I think we know the batteries will act like a web on a beam using the SS shells and glue and tie into the floorboards and bottom of the battery pack which becomes the flanges. Perhaps with enough attachments points around the perimeter that structure would integrate with the exoskeleton shell, however I am not optimistic we will be able to drop out out and replace it with a new one, but I do wish that is the case.

 

[Newton]

I wouldn't really think of the battery place as a cavity. As we know it will be epoxied into essentially 1 large battery.
I dont see why they wouldn't allow this to bolt on the bottom.
Perhaps it would be faster, cheaper stronger to make it integral onto the frame.

 

[T3slaDad]

As far as Tesla dropping software support for their older vehicles at some point, it's definitely possible. However, look at the manufacturers you're talking about and how many products are in their lines. Samsung has made over 100 models in the last 10 years, supporting every one of them (many are similar, but they all vary slightly) is a beast. Microsoft supported windows, which had to be entirely flexible in every degree to account for the countless hardware configurations that could be built. The list goes on and on!

Tesla has 5 vehicles that have rolled out in production over the last 10 years, and has only a handful more in the works. There are various generations of these models, but even over it's history has changed them in a few ways. Having the engineering power to support a few dozen variants over the years vs hundreds of models is very different.

Either way, if Tesla stops supporting my M3 or CT after 20 years, that's a million more exciting "I have a new car with every update" events I've had over any other vehicle I've ever owned.

 

[Crissa]

Like many I am very interested in the cavity that the battery is placed in.

Well, it's not a cavity, since it's structural.

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

I think the consensus is you will not be able to easily change out the battery pack because it will be structural maybe even glued in. What would be really cool if tesla could make a very special solvent that could break down the glue around the cells so they could be removed if a single cell failed, or for us DIY folks reconfigured in other configurations. Right now removing a single cell is extremely difficult and labor intensive.

Saying that something is structural doesn't mean that it can't be replaced. It does mean that it'll probably take a team of experienced mechanics a day or two to do it.

My takeaway from Battery Day was that the glue in the 4680 pack holds the cells together, but I didn't hear them say that they would glue the pack to the exoskeleton. Bolting the pack into the exoskeleton similar to the way a conventional ladder frame is bolted to the engine and body in a conventional pickup truck strikes me as more likely than glue.

My GMC Sierra has a structural frame, which can be replaced.

Here's a video of a Toyota Tacoma frame replacement, which has the same basic architecture as my Sierra:
(There was a recall on Tacomas after trucks started breaking in half due to frame corrosion, and so these guys have probably have the frame-replacemenr routine down.)

I speculate (without proof, evidence, or direct knowledge of what Tesla is planning) that replacing one of Tesla's structural battery packs will be easier than this.

 

[Crissa]

Elon was talking that the material they were using to 'glue' the batteries in would be rigid like carbon fiber, unlike previously approved potting materials.

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

Ideally one would repurpose the battery pack if it could be removed without damage. So I am a little more clear. Save $20,000 at first purchase by sticking with the dual motor and smaller battery tech, this makes it a little easier to pay for the upgrade.

Being able to unbolt the battery pack, chain it to a wall, and plug in some power electronics to make a powerwall would make all kinds of sense.

Extra kudos if someone designs a weatherproof cabinet to make it look nice.

 

[MEDICALJMP]

As far as Tesla dropping software support for their older vehicles at some point, it's definitely possible. However, look at the manufacturers you're talking about and how many products are in their lines. Samsung has made over 100 models in the last 10 years, supporting every one of them (many are similar, but they all vary slightly) is a beast. Microsoft supported windows, which had to be entirely flexible in every degree to account for the countless hardware configurations that could be built. The list goes on and on!

Tesla has 5 vehicles that have rolled out in production over the last 10 years, and has only a handful more in the works. There are various generations of these models, but even over it's history has changed them in a few ways. Having the engineering power to support a few dozen variants over the years vs hundreds of models is very different.

Either way, if Tesla stops supporting my M3 or CT after 20 years, that's a million more exciting "I have a new car with every update" events I've had over any other vehicle I've ever owned.

Why do so many think that Tesla won’t support your old vehicle? Those older vehicles that bought FSB may need a new chip implant to actually perform after the newest release. Do you not think that Tesla won’t sell an upgraded chip set or (pardon the lack of accurate tech-speak) CPU, MCU or whatever it is that provides control functions. I have read here on this very site where current users upgraded infotainment and other functions by purchasing new panels. Much easier and cheaper to swap out your display panel with the chip (I am using that as an example of where the chips are stored.)

Tesla wants to save the planet. You don’t do that filling up landfills with old cars. You keep them running as long as possible by making them adaptable to new tech. Planned obsolescence is Old Detroit. If anything we all have learned, Tesla doesn’t do Old Detroit.

 

[Crissa]

Why do do many think that Tesla won’t support your old vehicle? Those older vehicles that bought FSB may need a new chip implant to actually perform after the newest release.

At a certain point, they'll need new cameras and systems and may no longer have the same viewpoints as current cars and it will be more and more expensive to maintain these older cars in the fleet... Instead of selling a new car.

Tesla has abandoned cars which insurance has declared too expensive to repair and there isn't much support for the older Model S now.

But yes, so far, the company has been supporting cars much longer than other carmarkers.

-Crissa

 

[ldjessee]

I hope the structural battery pack that the 4680 cells are used in can be replaced, but in a Model Y or Model 3, I assume there will be a front casting, the structural battery pack and the rear casting and you can unbolt them (I hope they are not welded together, because that would mean cutting them apart), replace the structural battery pack, and bolt it back together. Might need to do it on a frame jig, to get everything lined up and the vehicle tracking right.

 

[Diehard]

I think the consensus is you will not be able to easily change out the battery pack because it will be structural maybe even glued in. What would be really cool if tesla could make a very special solvent that could break down the glue around the cells so they could be removed if a single cell failed, or for us DIY folks reconfigured in other configurations. Right now removing a single cell is extremely difficult and labor intensive.

It would be very interesting to see the videos of crash tests and see what happens to the pack. If it cannot be replaced, insurance on CT will go through the roof.