Future battery swaps

[Tinker71]

Say there is a massive improvement in battery tech in the next 6 years and some 3rd party could make a battery with 2x the density of current Tesla tech at sat $50 per kWh at the cell level Can anybody else envision grinding out /removing their existing Lion batteries and swapping in new batteries that can also mimic the structural capacity of the Tesla batteries?

Ignoring the voided warranty, service issues, cooling and computer interface for a moment, say you could fit 420 kWh of new batteries in the same cavity. 420 x $75 ($25 for the pack) plus $5000 install would only be $36,500 and get a 1000 mile range.

So in theory I could cheap out and get the dual motor now (2023), drive it for a couple years, waste the remaining pack life, install the new pack in 2027 for a total cost of $86,500 and have 1000 miles of range. Crazy what ifs but with in the realm of the battery cost curve.

Thoughts?

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[Crissa]

It costs $6000 to install a 14.4kWh battery in my motorcycle today.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

It costs $6000 to install a 14.4kWh battery in my motorcycle today.

-Crissa

Volume is everything. If there were 200,000 of your motorcycles around that needed new batteries or an upgrade I bet you could get the replacement pack for half or less. You paid over $400 per kWh in a motorcycle form. I think Tesla is already down to $110 or so at the pack level.

Because the SS structure and general longevity of EV motors on the CT I think there will be real economical 3rd party battery options that will be better than stock in 10 years.

 

[Crissa]

Volume is everything. ...

A Prius battery costs about a thousand dollars, plus installation.
A Leaf batter costs anywhere from $6K for an 'about 80%' battery to over $10K for a full battery. And these are third-party prices.

There's lots of hours of replacement - it's easier in a Tesla - but there's also reprogramming the BMS and there's the raw fact that lots of cells, lots of kWh, means lots of $$$.

Tesla tends to keep the price down, but that's a big manufacturer that makes the cheapest batteries. Each module in a Tesla (which is more expensive to get to than the whole pack) costs as much as the battery replacement on my motorcycle. And it's not that much more in kWhs, honestly.

No, there won't be a third-party replacement near term that will beat the current Tesla batteries. Tesla is just too far ahead of the curve.

We don't know how the Cybertruck will be put together, so there may be an easy way to get at the unused space in the truck. Or a not so easy way.

Either way, they could not say it voids your vehicle warranty. The battery warranty, sure, but not the vehicle warranty. In the US, to void a warranty, they have to prove the fault originated in non-OEM equipment.

-Crissa

 

[Sirfun]

It really does seem kinda ridiculous, but strange things like this have happened. I had a roommate that had a 54 Ford truck that was a hot rod from the 50's. Someone had bought it in 54 and a year later they put a big V-8 with Lincoln overdrive tranny they had bought brand new, into a one year old truck.
The cost's in this scenario are crazy high, and the weight of that much battery storage would be crazy, but if you needed it for a tow vehicle and could use the stock batteries for home storage I guess it's possible. Just not something I would do.

 

[T3slaDad]

You're on the right track!

I'll throw out another more practical example: in 10 years, my M3's battery capacity will likely be at 80-85% the original range (not bad to be honest!). Tesla is likely to have replacement packs with the latest available battery tech available for their older cars at that point assuming the pack fits the new height of the cells. If the new cells aren't the same height, they would put in the best battery tech that fits the pack.

In short, Tesla's got you covered. And like stated before, they are light-years ahead anyone else in pioneering mass produced next gen battery tech that's affordable.

So anyway, I'm not worried about the cost and capacity to replace my battery today, because it's going to go solid for 10+ years and by then, Tesla will have much more amazing battery tech that they'll put in my M3.

 

[cary1219]

I’m hoping something like this surfaces at some point. I have FSD for my 2016 Model S, and have no plans to ever get rid of it as a result. It only has a 75kWh pack though, so range is terrible. I’d love to increase my range after the car is paid off (I’ve only had it about 7 months).

 

[Gvardaman]

The batteries on current Teslas can be swapped out so there is no reason a company in the future couldn’t
make one to swap in that is of higher quality or similar quality but lighter or less expensive, etc.
So many people are working on batteries that there will certainly be improvements, including by Tesla!
The toughest part will likely be communicating with the car and BMS to take advantage of the increased performance.

 

[Crissa]

...and the weight of that much battery storage would be crazy, but if you needed it for a tow vehicle and could use the stock batteries for home storage I guess it's possible. Just not something I would do.

Me neither, but I certainly hope it's possible. I hope the Cybertruck Truck Guy is on the right track with suggesting dynamic charging: It would let us easily do stuff like that, and really be power source agnostic on the roll. Big batteries? Solar stuffed to the gills? Propane genny in an open bed? I hope it's all possible.

-Crissa

 

[MEDICALJMP]

Seems like a waste of money and material. I'll leave my battery alone and use my Cybertruck until the batteries actually NEED replacement.

 

[Newton]

I feel like they will try for the best life in the batteries (and everything else), specially in the CT and semi.
BUT its not gonna be like a current vehicle where u can keep it running forever with aftermarket stuff. I could literally get anything to replace in my 89 toyota pickup, keeping it on the road forever.

im hoping it will be like that with teslas, but probably not for a long while.
I think the majority of car buyers keep them for like 15 years before getting something else

 

[FutureBoy]

I feel like they will try for the best life in the batteries (and everything else), specially in the CT and semi.
BUT its not gonna be like a current vehicle where u can keep it running forever with aftermarket stuff. I could literally get anything to replace in my 89 toyota pickup, keeping it on the road forever.

im hoping it will be like that with teslas, but probably not for a long while.
I think the majority of car buyers keep them for like 15 years before getting something else

Thing is that most vehicles are only expected to run between 100 and 200 k miles before they either break down irretrievably or get slowly replaced part by part with replacement parts.

Then comes Tesla with the million mile battery pack. Given the low maintenance risk and high expected miles of the batteries, most Tesla’s (especially the CT) shouldn’t need more than brakes, tires, fluids, and possibly interior surfaces updated before the 1 million mile mark. Under normal family driving patterns, almost no one will drive their own vehicle that long. I’ll probably be dead long before I put 1 million miles on my CT. In fact I’d be more worried about the human parts market over the Tesla parts market.

For those who expect to use their Tesla’s in a robotaxi network, sure. There will need to be some replacement parts. But the rest of us have very little to worry about for parts.

 

[azjohn]

Seems like a waste of money and material. I'll leave my battery alone and use my Cybertruck until the batteries actually NEED replacement.

I am wondering with the pack in vehicle design the 4680 cells will have if it will be possible to change out the pack

 

[Diehard]

Thing is that most vehicles are only expected to run between 100 and 200 k miles before they either break down irretrievably or get slowly replaced part by part with replacement parts.

Then comes Tesla with the million mile battery pack. Given the low maintenance risk and high expected miles of the batteries, most Tesla’s (especially the CT) shouldn’t need more than brakes, tires, fluids, and possibly interior surfaces updated before the 1 million mile mark. Under normal family driving patterns, almost no one will drive their own vehicle that long. I’ll probably be dead long before I put 1 million miles on my CT. In fact I’d be more worried about the human parts market over the Tesla parts market.

For those who expect to use their Tesla’s in a robotaxi network, sure. There will need to be some replacement parts. But the rest of us have very little to worry about for parts.

I foresee cars becoming more interactive with their environment and each other. As they do, they become more and more like smartphone and tablets. I kept my Samsung galaxy Note2 for eight years by replacing the battery which must be a record. In it’s final few years, there were many apps that I could no longer use because apps and operating system support dropped off at different times and they didn’t like to talk to each other any longer. In some cases I could not access my data. As Tesla which is a forward looking company will have more and more models, the cost and effort to maintain support for older ones will become harder to justify and may drop off at some point. As our EVs get older, the body and battery may last a million miles but the brain will become more irrelevant to the point that even government may require safety features in your vehicle that Tesla is unwilling to go back and add to the old models and you probably won’t have the knowledge and access to do it. At that point you will see more and more new cars with features that you want and your CT will look like the old noble prize winner that now have dementia. You will want to replace it with that personal Falcon 222 because you just have to have that hover feature for your off-road hobby. I should note that I got my crystal ball at a yard sale. Take all of this with a grain of salt.

 

[Tinker71]

I am wondering with the pack in vehicle design the 4680 cells will have if it will be possible to change out the pack

I think the consensus is you will not be able to easily change out the battery pack because it will be structural maybe even glued in. What would be really cool if tesla could make a very special solvent that could break down the glue around the cells so they could be removed if a single cell failed, or for us DIY folks reconfigured in other configurations. Right now removing a single cell is extremely difficult and labor intensive.