The reality true prize of cybertruck.

[davidngo44]

If you're solely concerned about price, then it's going to be a tough sell, I'm sorry to say.

I did some research and math. Let's start at Edmunds for the 2020 Sienna cost to own:

https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/sienna/2020/cost-to-own/#style=401794839

This model is close in price at about $44,300 to what your wife picked out. I'm going to use this to do some comparisons. I had to make some assumptions since there is still much we don't know about the cost of owning a Cybertruck.

Maintenance:
The maintenance on the Sienna is predicted Edmunds. For 5 years, it comes to $4,361.

IF you buy the maintenance package on the Cybertruck, I assume it will be close to that on the Model X (most similar in size/weight to the CT) at about $3,000. Add an assumed $1,000 tire change and you're pretty evenly matched at $4,000. Not a huge savings.

Repairs:
It...depends, right? Edmunds suggests repairs on the Sienna might be around $671 over 5 years.

The CT comes with a pretty good warranty and all the small things should be covered under the extra maintenance, so for now we'll leave this empty. What you won't have to worry about are repairs for dings or spots in the paint or other cosmetics. You will be responsible for anything more, like if you curb the wheel and damage it.

Taxes & other fees:
These should be pretty even as a percentage of the MSRP between the two vehicles. So if it's $2,612 for the Sienna, I would estimate it to be $2,942 for the CT. This depends on where you live and specific laws in place there. Some states have vehicle property taxes, some don't, etc.

Financing:
If you take out a loan, there are some options for EVs that offer better rates. For comparison, though, we'll simply calculate the finance as a percent of the MSRP and apply it to both. That puts finance costs at $8,029 for the Sienna and $9,042 for the Cybertruck.

Fuel:
And here we are! This is supposed to be the big area where EVs shine, right? Well, the CT is a big heavy vehicle and you're comparing it to a big, but much lighter hybrid, and not a gas guzzler.

The estimate I found for the Hybrid Sienna is that it should get 36 miles per gallon. For the Cybertruck, it's estimated at 420 watt-hours per mile (because of *course* it is) which equates to about 2.4 miles per KWH.

Assuming 15,000 miles and a pre-pandemic starting point of $2.69 per gallon of gas, increasing, on average, by 2.24% per year (calculated from gas prices between 2009 and 2019), that would put the cost of fuel for the Sienna at $5,852 over 5 years.

Assuming the same miles and a starting point of $0.1225 per KWH, increasing at 3.5% per year, the "fuel" cost of the Cybertruck would be $4,138 over 5 years.

Whether you have solar panels or other ways of making electricity cheaper will have a big impact.

Insurance and Depreciation
I left insurance and depreciation out because, honestly, who knows?!

There are a great many anecdotes from Tesla owners out there who claim that their insurance didn't change much or even went down when they bought there Tesla. I doubt that's in-line with the average, however. What I have read is that the Cybertruck will likely be more expensive to insure than average. Maybe 67% more according to one source, maybe 300% more according to another.

My guess is that it will be closer to 67% more, but there are so many factors that go into insurance that it's impossible to guess unless it's what you do for a living, if then.

Depreciation suffers from similar unknowns. You'll find 5 year old Teslas that still hold 50% of their value, but Toyotas fair almost as well and with higher mileage. My best guess is that it will be similar between the two. If the consumer market starts to lean more heavily in favor of EVs, then that could favor the Cybertruck. But it could as easily tilt the other way.

Conclusion
My best-case guess is that the Cybertruck will cost you more to drive over 5 years. Why? Partly because of the difference in price.

What you almost never see is someone making a video comparing a Model 3 to a Camry to talk about costs of ownership. Why? The Camry is cheaper and the financially wiser choice. Is it the more fun choice? No. The greener choice? Probably not. The more advanced choice? Hell no.

If the vehicle is cheaper to begin with, it makes it more difficult for the fuel savings to catch up. The Sienna is $5,000 cheaper. While you'll be paying less in fuel, the CT is still coming from behind on cost.

Second is that the Sienna can be a hybrid with 36 MPG instead of the ICE-only variant's 21 MPG. That delta makes a HUGE difference in the overall TCO of the Toyota.

Where does the math end up?

The Toyota Sienna I used in my model costs $5,592 less than the Cybertruck.
The Cybertruck costs $1,403 less to own and operate over 5 years.

That gives the Sienna a $4,190 financial advantage.

If the Sienna were the regular ICE variety, at 21 MPG, then it would be an even match between the two over 5 years - literally came within $10 of TCO.

Were it up to me, I would still favor the Cybertruck as the good purchase decision based on design, function, and eco-friendliness.

If you need to haul kids, either vehicle will do. If you need to haul, say, some lumber, well, both vehicles can do that. The Cybertruck can do both simultaneously.

The Cybertruck is an apocalypse-ready stainless steel armored tank from the future. The Sienna is a *checks notes* minivan.

The Sienna will be the same the day you sell it as the day you bought it. The Cybertruck will get constant over-the-air updates to help keep the experience feeling fresh.

I just want to be sure that the CT dual motor will be $49,999 plus tax and lic out of the door, estimate equal $58k. So CA 10% tax and plus lic.... the real estimate cost to bring the cybertruck home will be around $58,000 cash without FSD. CT dual motor at $58k out of the door is very do able for me. Thank you for help.

Advertisement

 

[davidngo44]

Thank you everyone for responding to my post. So the reality cost of a CT with dual motor is about $58k Out Of The Door. I went to Longo Toyota after work today to check the brand new 2021 toyota sienna EXL again..... Let say I feel nauseated afterward....... I concluded that sienna Mini VAN is not for me or any Mini VAN. I am just going to wait for my CT with dual motor.

 

[FutureBoy]

Thank you everyone for responding to my post. So the reality cost of a CT with dual motor is about $58k Out Of The Door. I went to Longo Toyota after work today to check the brand new 2021 toyota sienna EXL again..... Let say I feel nauseated afterward....... I concluded that sienna Mini VAN is not for me or any Mini VAN. I am just going to wait for my CT with dual motor.

Nauseated because of......
1. price
2. design
3. functionality
4. it's not a CT
5. other
6. just don't like the name Sienna - (bad art class in high school or something?)

I currently drive a Sienna. But I got it long before the CT was on my radar. Given the way the market is switching to EV and the overall cost of the Sienna, I would not buy one anymore. I actually like the Sienna. It has treated me well. And mine is completely paid off and still has many possible miles left to go. So I can wait patiently for my CT. If I had to buy something right now though..... At most I would find an older used vehicle that I believed was going to hold up well till the CT came along. I certainly would not be buying anything new right now.

 

[Bigvbear]

I just want to be sure that the CT dual motor will be $49,999 plus tax and lic out of the door, estimate equal $58k. So CA 10% tax and plus lic.... the real estimate cost to bring the cybertruck home will be around $58,000 cash without FSD. CT dual motor at $58k out of the door is very do able for me. Thank you for help.

I would love to say that will be a firm price, but if Tesla history is any indicator. It will not be.

Try getting a $35,000 model 3 or a $39,000 model Y (single motor).

Those were the prices at the reveal. Today the cheapest Model 3 is 37,900 and model Y is 49,900 (dual motor, single is not available, yet the reveal did say spring of 2021 for the single motor)

Now that being said, the dual motor model Y was set for 51,000 at reveal, so it has actually come down in price and the range has increased from 280 to 326.

I guess what i am trying to say is Don't bet on this price tag until manufacturing commences and deliveries start to be made.

 

[firsttruck]

I would love to say that will be a firm price, but if Tesla history is any indicator. It will not be.

Try getting a $35,000 model 3 or a $39,000 model Y (single motor).

There may be a strategic reason Tesla just removed $35,000 Model 3.

The next U.S. administration might restore Federal tax breaks for Tesla & Chevy EVs. This should result in Tesla model 3 net price below $35,000.

 

[FullyGrounded]

The OP was comparing the Cybertruck to the Sienna. I merely adapted the work I did comparing the CT to the Tundra, which was a clear victory for the Cybertruck. About $6,000 savings over 5 years.

Of course there are many important reasons to drive the Cybertruck over any ICE vehicle. And if one were interested in a Cybertruck versus a Raptor, I’d gladly do the same work to compare the financials.

Even if the Cybertruck were $6,000 more expensive instead of less, I’d still buy it for many of the reasons you mentioned.

Best new vehicle I’ve seen. Ever.

Something that shouldn't be missed in what I eluded to above, is that many of the numerous benefits of owning a CyberTruck versus any ICE vehicle, are intangible. In other words, they cannot be figured out on a calculator, or even an abacus. As such, these benefits won't show on either hardcopy in this thread. So, many tangible benefits favor the CyberTruck, as do many intangible benefits; therefore, it's a no-brainer - for me anyway. peace

 

[FutureBoy]

Something that shouldn't be missed in what I eluded to above, is that many of the numerous benefits of owning a CyberTruck versus any ICE vehicle, are intangible. In other words, they cannot be figured out on a calculator, or even an abacus. As such, these benefits won't show on either hardcopy in this thread. So, many tangible benefits favor the CyberTruck, as do many intangible benefits; therefore, it's a no-brainer - for me anyway. peace

The thing about the intangible benefits though is that they tend to be personal. When the first CTs start shipping, those who take delivery are going to get a lot of looks from the community. For some people that will be a proud moment of joy. For others it will be a PITA annoyance.

There are certainly going to be intangible benefits to the CT. But those intangibles are going to be experienced very differently by people.

 

[Bigvbear]

There may be a strategic reason Tesla just removed $35,000 Model 3.

The next U.S. administration might restore Federal tax breaks for Tesla & Chevy EVs. This should result in Tesla model 3 net price below $35,000.

Right but my point was the prices have fluxuated since the reveal of those models.

 

[Crissa]

I would love to say that will be a firm price, but if Tesla history is any indicator. It will not be.

Why do you believe that?

Try getting a $35,000 model 3 ...

Tesla sold the $35,000 Model 3s. The current base model is $36,490 and you get more range and dual-motor.

...or a $39,000 model Y (single motor)

He's not waiting for the single-motor.

As pointed out, there is a fleet demand for a single-motor out there, but Tesla doesn't yet have excess production capability to take advantage of it.

-Crissa

 

[jerhenderson]

I would love to say that will be a firm price, but if Tesla history is any indicator. It will not be.

Try getting a $35,000 model 3 or a $39,000 model Y (single motor).

Those were the prices at the reveal. Today the cheapest Model 3 is 37,900 and model Y is 49,900 (dual motor, single is not available, yet the reveal did say spring of 2021 for the single motor)

Now that being said, the dual motor model Y was set for 51,000 at reveal, so it has actually come down in price and the range has increased from 280 to 326.

I guess what i am trying to say is Don't bet on this price tag until manufacturing commences and deliveries start to be made.

I think any dual or tri motor CT will be accurately priced..... its the single motors that suffer.