Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[RedBeardNP]

Just recently reserved my CT and been lurking so just joined to participate in the discussion.

Some of the concerns regarding delivery that have been raised are the fact that since the factory isn't finished yet, they won't have equipment, materials, staff etc ready until that is done. I have 0 experience in the industry but I would think that for such a massive and anticipated project they are doing many steps simultaneously.

I am sure they have their steel lined up, machines may already be lying in wait to be installed as soon as a roof is over the building. At least a small amount of staff could already be in training or trained since they know how to build the prototype etc.

What I am more concerned about is the fact that, unless Tesla is doing it very secretly, there doesn't seem to be a lot of real world testing going on. They have shown it in a tug-of-war against a Ford and such but I haven't seen videos of them demonstrating it's ability to tow, rock climb, maneuver etc, other than a few videos on city streets going city speed limits. Am I missing something? Do you guys think this is just happening under wraps? Or do you think CT is just way behind in actual testing?

The Rivian on the other hand is looking to launch next year and it seems more believable. They have tons of test footage showing it performing off road, towing etc. And they already have test vehicles being assembled. Even the accessories like tents and camping gear have real world prototypes and not just 3D renderings.

Thoughts? I want my CT by 2022 also but.......

Advertisement

 

[lqdchkn]

Any predictions for Cybertruck run rate after Jan 2022? Jan 2022 to Dec 2022 I see about 70, 000 Cybertrucks being produced. That is only a guess. Probably ramp that by 50% increase per year just the same as Tesla is growing overall.

Tesla Shanghai took about 7 months to ramp. I'd bet they've learn from that but not sure how much or how much faster they could improve from what they learned so I'd say 4-6 months?

 

[Davelv]

Musk said that Texas will produce 250k to 300k Cybertrucks/year. That means over 20k/month. The Texas factory will start producing by September of 2021. Musk also said the new battery will be in production next year, just not in terawatt capacities. No doubt the trimotor Cybertruck will get the new batteries, while it is likely the other versions might get the existing ones. In any case, yes certainly by the fourth quarter of 2021 the Cybertrucks will be delivered to buyers. I fully expect since my order number is ~15300 to have my truck before 11/1/21.

 

[VolklKatana]

Just recently reserved my CT and been lurking so just joined to participate in the discussion.

Some of the concerns regarding delivery that have been raised are the fact that since the factory isn't finished yet, they won't have equipment, materials, staff etc ready until that is done. I have 0 experience in the industry but I would think that for such a massive and anticipated project they are doing many steps simultaneously.

I am sure they have their steel lined up, machines may already be lying in wait to be installed as soon as a roof is over the building. At least a small amount of staff could already be in training or trained since they know how to build the prototype etc.

What I am more concerned about is the fact that, unless Tesla is doing it very secretly, there doesn't seem to be a lot of real world testing going on. They have shown it in a tug-of-war against a Ford and such but I haven't seen videos of them demonstrating it's ability to tow, rock climb, maneuver etc, other than a few videos on city streets going city speed limits. Am I missing something? Do you guys think this is just happening under wraps? Or do you think CT is just way behind in actual testing?

The Rivian on the other hand is looking to launch next year and it seems more believable. They have tons of test footage showing it performing off road, towing etc. And they already have test vehicles being assembled. Even the accessories like tents and camping gear have real world prototypes and not just 3D renderings.

Thoughts? I want my CT by 2022 also but.......

Welcome to the club! This has been discussed elsewhere on the forums, but the first vehicles produced go to employees whon do a lot of that real world testing. With their other models, there were 'Spottings' of the cars before they were actually being sent to customers. While the employees testing them are out doing the real world testing, they are able to continue to build vehicles, slowly. They may have to go back and rework or tweak pieces of them but in the end, they are the same vehicles released months or a year later. this really holds true for many manufacturing processes. I work for an appliance manufacturer, and you should see the number of units that get lined up and stock piled while field testing is going on, pre-release to customers. Autos arent any different.

I have one of the first 20k Model S's built, that thing is as rock solid as i have ever seen in a vehicle, let alone a 7 year old vehicle. Personally, i think the earlier ones get a little bit more attention and time to be built, plus tesla has always been good about going back and fixing issues for those that get the very early models. Overall, i have no qualms about being around 4k on the reservation list....the day i get my CT cant come soon enough!

 

[RedBeardNP]

Welcome to the club! This has been discussed elsewhere on the forums, but the first vehicles produced go to employees whon do a lot of that real world testing. With their other models, there were 'Spottings' of the cars before they were actually being sent to customers. While the employees testing them are out doing the real world testing, they are able to continue to build vehicles, slowly. They may have to go back and rework or tweak pieces of them but in the end, they are the same vehicles released months or a year later. this really holds true for many manufacturing processes. I work for an appliance manufacturer, and you should see the number of units that get lined up and stock piled while field testing is going on, pre-release to customers. Autos arent any different.

I have one of the first 20k Model S's built, that thing is as rock solid as i have ever seen in a vehicle, let alone a 7 year old vehicle. Personally, i think the earlier ones get a little bit more attention and time to be built, plus tesla has always been good about going back and fixing issues for those that get the very early models. Overall, i have no qualms about being around 4k on the reservation list....the day i get my CT cant come soon enough!

Thanks for the welcome!

4,000?! awesome spot in line!

I get what you are saying, I just wonder why they aren't doing any PR about it. Like a video of it going over some serious rocks, towing etc. Show us the goods!

 

[Crissa]

Constrained doesnt necessarily mean they cant meet demand.

No, it doesn't.

But how many pre-orders are they sitting on? And raising the price wouldn't increase the number they could make.

-Crissa

 

[RedBeardNP]

No, it doesn't.

But how many pre-orders are they sitting on? And raising the price wouldn't increase the number they could make.

-Crissa

Does anyone have any guess what the conversion rate of pre-order to sale is going to look like? Any comparisons we can draw from other Tesla models or car industry in general?

 

[VolklKatana]

Thanks for the welcome!

4,000?! awesome spot in line!

I get what you are saying, I just wonder why they aren't doing any PR about it. Like a video of it going over some serious rocks, towing etc. Show us the goods!

Thanks! I was shocked it was that low as well!

Im guessing they arent doing any new videos because that CT is currently 1 of 1.... dont think they want to be going back to repair things that are all custom built at this point. Plus, Tesla doesnt do PR

 

[Crissa]

Does anyone have any guess what the conversion rate of pre-order to sale is going to look like? Any comparisons we can draw from other Tesla models or car industry in general?

https://www.vox.com/2017/8/2/160874...-manufacture-preorder-cancellations-elon-musk
10% loss was estimated for Model 3. That's frankly amazing.

When I was doing video games analysis, if you could get people through a hoop at a 10% conversion, to a free product, you were doing great. This is a 90% conversion to a very expensive product.

-Crissa

 

[SolarWizard]

I’m super early in the queue for multiple trucks because Im flipping them. That being said I think I might make my first $4-5k in time for Christmas next year.

not interested in personally owning one until the legacy’s drop their own versions, specifically Ford and Toyota. Quite frankly my model Y wasn’t what I’d hoped so I sold it for a tiny profit as well.

i like the Spartan interior but it still didn’t feel as nice inside as the sticker price demanded. The F150 has just dropped some very impressive innovations that I’ll expect to be met or exceeded before I purchase what I hope is the last truck I buy For personal use

 

[kdn]

I hope the CT is my last truck also. It should be. I just read that the way Austin Gigafactory is going they may have production equipment in at the end of may. 27/7 construction makes it go fast. I can't wait. My wife and son drive my MS and I get stuck driving my Toyota Tundra around when I need to go somewhere. Patiently impatient.

Stay safe mask up

 

[Cyberman]

Does anyone have any guess what the conversion rate of pre-order to sale is going to look like? Any comparisons we can draw from other Tesla models or car industry in general?

10% cancellation sounds about right. Although I can't imagine who would cancel a Cybertruck pre-order, I mean even if you don't want it, you could make some bank off it.

 

[Crissa]

10% sounds about right. Although I can't imagine who would cancel a Cybertruck pre-order, I mean even if you don't want it, you could make some bank off it.

Three in four Model 3 pre-orders stuck out to receive their cars.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Thanks for the welcome!

4,000?! awesome spot in line!

I get what you are saying, I just wonder why they aren't doing any PR about it. Like a video of it going over some serious rocks, towing etc. Show us the goods!

Tesla doesn’t do PR anymore and never did any advertising. For the Model Y we anxiously waited for sightings and they started happening about 9 months before deliveries began. But the Model Y was very similar to the Model 3. Tesla clearly made a couple of Cybertrucks without a factory, so they can make more prototypes and send them out on the road for testing. But they cannot tweak the manufacturing process without a factory.

 

[jerhenderson]

Three in four Model 3 pre-orders stuck out to receive their cars.

-Crissa

I think 10% is far too low - for the CT I think even 3/4 completion may be low because lots of people were waiting on an EV truck, like I was.... so with one now being available why would you cancel?