Robotaxi Cybertruck fleet with Income Generation Purpose?

[timjwright2.0]

If (when) FSD is fully realized:
~ Option A: Robotaxi fleet
~ Option B: Long distance transportation and cargo hauler (for tri-motor)

Until then:
~ Option C: Operate the trucks under any conventional business model where a fleet of ICE trucks or other vehicles would be in use, where the cost of operating the CTs will be vastly less than the ICE competitors.
~ Option D: Sell the truck to anyone who didnt know how amazing it would be and how much money it would save them until they saw it in person (by then the wait-list on new orders will be many years out) Even if sold at sticker value would fetch me a healthy margin on FSD price increases.
~ Option E: (worst case scenario) get a refund on most of my reservations and enjoy my personal CYBRTRK.

I'm so glad I found this thread! I was starting to wonder why we weren't talking more about this! Any links to other discussions on this topic would be much appreciated.
I have my orders in and I am absolutely planning to operate a fleet of autonomous trucks.

Thanks for your comment! I'm trying to think through all the scenarios as well. I have a few questions for you, and anyone else. With the tri motor be necessary for equipment hauling? Is that because it would be pulling a trailer or because you would need the longer-range?
It would appear according to the buyers license agreement that you cannot buy the cybertruck with the intent to just resell them. Does anyone else read it that way?
For me the biggest issue is I don't have an extra half a million dollars laying around to finance the cybertruck. I've been curious why others aren't mentioning the obvious financing hurdle. I'm all for having a barrier of Entry do the fleet manager business, otherwise everyone would be doing it. It seems like if you could get with the right lender, they would understand that this is not a conventional auto loan but a business loan. And the equipment could be the collateral since it will be appreciating as well as worth more than we paid for it for the first couple of years at least. Since we paid considerably less for FSD and there will be a waiting list once people see the cybertruck in action. I'm planning on having a dozen for the fleet. Almost every other issue has been addressed, like self charging, and insurance and profitability.

So what are the ideas for financing a dozen cyber trucks?

I have my pre-order spread out over 7 months thinking I'll have time to get a few show their profitable for a few months and then try to get another business equipment loan. But it will have to be unconventional in terms of having equipment that is appreciating. I'm not sure if lenders would be willing to make that risk. They would have to be serious Tesla fanboys.

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[timjwright2.0]

If FSD might be completed by the end of the year, hell, the end of 2025, is legislation going to be ready for it? Which cities will allow it? Which states? Is it all or nothing approach to FSD? Would they even allow you to taxi people around using FSD? What's insurance going to be like? So many questions for me. Tesla might be there, but is the government there? The speed the government works at, I am not very convinced.


In my opinion, I don't think FSD will be available for use in the US for 5+ years. I hope I am wrong.

An interesting story yesterday about the new beta FSD. It appears the US regulatory board is going to take a watch and see approach to how the beta FSD is being used. This could be a good sign for things to come. As long as it shows to be safer than human drivers they may just let it keep getting developed as people become more and more comfortable with it and it was just simply be considered legal since there's no laws against it.

 

[FutureBoy]

An interesting story yesterday about the new beta FSD. It appears the US regulatory board is going to take a watch and see approach to how the beta FSD is being used. This could be a good sign for things to come. As long as it shows to be safer than human drivers they may just let it keep getting developed as people become more and more comfortable with it and it was just simply be considered legal since there's no laws against it.

I wonder if at some point the laws will change to require some indication from the outside that FSD is driving the car instead of a human. I keep seeing stories of cops pulling over drivers who have fallen asleep. But if FSD is engaged then it should be ok to be asleep and the cops wouldn’t need to pull the driver over. This is all assuming that FSD is fully autonomous.

 

[ajdelange]

I'm so glad I found this thread! I was starting to wonder why we weren't talking more about this!

I don't think there is much discussion of it because I don't think there are that many naive enough to think it will happen in their lifetimes.

So what are the ideas for financing a dozen cyber trucks?

I guess I would do what any other business would do. Write up a business plan and take it to institutions that finance businesses. A bank officer has to do "due dilligence" so you probably won't have much luck but they do make loans to people starting restaurants.

Crowd sourcing?

 

[myco.rrhizae]

Here is why I think that robo taxis will be fully realized within a few years:

1. The financial incentive for Tesla to advance this business model is enormous. For better or worse, money is a strong motivator ~ and litteral truckloads of nearly passive revenue doubly so. Tesla has been playing this hand since 2016 when they started selling all of their vehicles with autonomous hardware. They will do whatever it takes to make this happen as soon as possible. There are more difficult things that no one thought Tesla could achive.
2. How about the fact that Waymo is operating autonomous robotaxis in Phoenix ~~ right now?! That molasses-slow regulator process didnt take too long now did it? Interesting.
3. Waymo, Cruise, Uber, Apple and the like have been investing billions just to have a tiny slice of the pie, developing proprietary hardware for the purpose-built function of autonomous transportation within limited geomaps. So if all of the country's larges tech and auto companies think it can happen, of what value is your personal opinion?
4. AI is far more advanced than any of us understand and is rapidly becoming better than humans on all conceivable metrics, including all the nuanced things like poetry, communication, and music.

Each of Waymo's vehicles cost hundreds of thousands of dollars (millions when including the cost of developing the neural net?) to develop and build. That price tag is worth it to them because they see the potential. So here I am, and I have the same opportunity as Waymo to operate a fleet of robotaxis, except that I dont have to invest billions of dollars and millions of man-hours into making it happen. I just need to put in an order and wait until FSD is realized... yes, please, and thank you

I am also aware of Tesla's move toward transportation as a service and away from private vehicle sales eventually.
At the point of robo taxi realization all of Tesla's vehicles will become hugely valuable as sources of revenue and it would only make sense for them to maintain ownership and commit them to the fleet. Im not sure if there is any historical context for this experience ~ it will be very interesting when you can no longer buy a Tesla (only hail ride in them) and the relatively small number of people who own them today will be holding rare and incredibly valuable assets. Good thing the CT is built to last...

I fully intend to keep all of the Cybertrucks I have ordered.

 

[ajdelange]

I fully intend to keep all of the Cybertrucks I have ordered.

I would be very, very surprised to hear otherwise but you asked why there isn't much discussion and the answer still is that few are as naive as you.

 

[myco.rrhizae]

the answer still is that few are as naive as you.

You got a rebuttal or are you just gunna let that record keep skippin?
Im seeking critical feedback and am dying to find the holes this plan. Please do elaborate.
Also, for you and those who had expressed earlier this year that driverless vehicles are 5-10+ years away ~
Are you at all surprised at the news that Waymo got approval to operate their fully driverles robotaxis in Pheonix? Does that change your expectations at all or is that and Teslas current FSD beta release still within your 10 year timeline for driverless vehicles?

 

[myco.rrhizae]

few are as naive as you.

True, true...
either that or

few have the foresight, genius, and audacity of elon musk ;P

 

[Roger]

True, true...
either that or

few have the foresight, genius, and audacity of elon musk ;P

Very possible that some people that are into this, do not want this opportunity to become too popular & hence not willing to talk in public forums, etc.

 

[myco.rrhizae]

Very possible that some people that are into this, do not want this opportunity to become too popular & hence not willing to talk in public forums, etc.

Kind of curious about how that would negatively affect their plans? Any ideas?

This seems like the kind of scenario where more contributors in the scene would benefit each other rather than compete, as the more tesla transport services that are available, the more that people would become familiar with the concept. We would gain a network affect if people can depend on actually getting a ride by using rhe tesla app rather than uber or a cab.

I would see it as tesla ride hailing as a whole is competing with other services rather than individual tesla owners competing with each other. And the more tesla robotaxis on the road, the more compelling the tesla ride hailing service becomes.

 

[ajdelange]

You got a rebuttal or are you just gunna let that record keep skippin?
Im seeking critical feedback and am dying to find the holes this plan.

What would be the point? You have made up your mind that you will be able to operate a fleet of driverless vehicles in the near term. If the internet has taught me anything it has taught me that rational argument, the only tool at my disposal, has no influence on people who have their minds made up. It would be like trying to have a rational discussion about religion or politics.

You will learn more from the passage of time than you would from me.

 

[Stickboy46]

FSD will not be ready for robotaxi during the time I own a Cybertruck, I've used the currently version .. it's not close to not needing a driver .. so no not planning on robotaxi.

For a personal vehicle, no way I would let other people in my vehicle unsupervised.

 

[Yakuza]

FSD will not be ready for robotaxi during the time I own a Cybertruck, I've used the currently version .. it's not close to not needing a driver .. so no not planning on robotaxi.

For a personal vehicle, no way I would let other people in my vehicle unsupervised.

Do you have the FSD beta? I can’t imagine it would be more than two years away from being capable of robotaxiing, given how well it already is doing.

 

[ajdelange]

I can’t imagine it would be more than two years away from being capable of robotaxiing, given how well it already is doing.

No, no. If you are going to become an AI fan you have to learn to speak the language. It is a year away. It has always been, and will be for the rest of our lifetimes, a year away. Go back (a few years at least) and review Elon's comments on this.

 

[Stickboy46]

Do you have the FSD beta? I can’t imagine it would be more than two years away from being capable of robotaxiing, given how well it already is doing.

I don't have the beta. Either way, from what I've seen it's 90% there. The problem is it's likely like most projects especially software. It takes 50% of the effort to get 90% of the features. The remaining 10% of features/reliability takes the remaining 50% of effort. Normal software can be "ready" at 90% feature set. This HAS to be 100% done. There is no edge case that can happen. The car can NEVER be confused for robotaxi.

If the car is confused:
It crashes
It hits someone/something
It stops working and gets stuck. You now have to go retrieve your vehicle that is likely blocking traffic.

None of those can happen and robotaxi be allowed legally. The liability levels are just off the charts on this. Achieving 100% reliability or at least 99.999999999 (9x 9's of reliability) will take a decade or major infrastructure/market changes.

I'd venture in 2 years, it's reliable enough for Full Self Driving ... WITH a human in the driver seat for those edge cases and works 99% of the time without intervention.