Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

[TyPope]

I spend about 7 years at a GM car plant in General Assembly, I was not an Industrial Engineer nor did I do line balancing, but as I recall, if a process took more that the allotted time, they would have multiple stations and tools dedicated to that process. So if you had a process (i.e. windshield installation) that took 1 min 30 sec, you would have 2 separate tools in two different work stations installing that part. Thus still making the 53 sec window allowed, just taking up more floor space and was more expensive because you had to have multiple operators and multiple tools.

If I remember right they were doing this for cockpit install, fluid fill, and maybe others. I do remember multiple glass install stations, but I thought maybe they were for front and rear.

Just my thoughts. Not from an expert.

You are 100% correct. On the line in Shreveport, we had a cross-body harness station that took more than 52 seconds so we had two teams that would leapfrog every other vehicle. My point was that limiting the number of processes does not mean that vehicle production speed for that line gets any faster. In fact, the opposite is quite often true. Instead of one station that takes 52 seconds to fasten 8 fasteners, you could have 8 stations that all put in one fastener every 10 seconds which would increase the throughput of that process by 500%... However, that adds cost which is what they are trying to avoid like you said.

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[TyPope]

So you're saying 9 women can't make a baby in 1 month.

LOL. I have actually heard that one before!

 

[Jaxkewl]

First of all why does he need a completely built factory to start producing vehicles. I’m trivialIzing this but when we start downloading a large file We can start playing certain parts after a certain percentage.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I don’t think that is true (re the file download), but all of the Tesla properties are being added on to piecemeal, so they know they can build up a portion and begin operations. I think the question you are trying to answer is whether the CT portions of the factory can be operational while they build out the rest of it. Perhaps, but if the time in between is short enough they probably won’t do it due to logistical complexity.

 

[Jaxkewl]

I don’t think that is true (re the file download), but all of the Tesla properties are being added on to piecemeal, so they know they can build up a portion and begin operations. I think the question you are trying to answer is whether the CT portions of the factory can be operational while they build out the rest of it. Perhaps, but if the time in between is short enough they probably won’t do it due to logistical complexity.

If Tesla is known For anything , it’s that they are good at solving complex problems.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

If Tesla is known For anything , it’s that they are good at solving complex problems.

I wasn’t trying to say otherwise. I was saying it might not be necessary. They are also smart enough to know when or when Not to solve such problems.

 

[Hookalakupua]

It’s looking bleaker and bleaker for those of you that couldn’t see the obvious! Haha ?

https://apple.news/AieHZD4jHRnSD98uFTosH8A

 

[Teslaman]

It’s looking bleaker and bleaker for those of you that couldn’t see the obvious! Haha ?

https://apple.news/AieHZD4jHRnSD98uFTosH8A

What’s a bottle of wine, when the outcome is positive, and I get to see the CyberTruck early?...BTW, you can recharge here..

 

[Hookalakupua]

What’s a bottle of wine, when the outcome is positive, and I get to see the CyberTruck early?...BTW, you can recharge here..

Touché! And as a matter of fact, I’ll bring you a bottle and we’ll both celebrate! I’ll take you up on that offer to charge as well. ?
Amazing the progress they’re making.

 

[CyberMoose]

So I don't think there was any sort of assurance of the 4th quarter in 2021 being a delivery date, that's just when they say production will begin, which I think is a pretty realistic timeline but it's completely possible and within reason that an operation of this size could be a few months behind.

Some good news though is that because of the design and the materials of the Cybertruck, it could actually have a good production speed. Tesla doesn't have to worry about a bunch of curves and fancy designs, this truck is beautiful looking like "a doorstop" according to the people at Nikola. Because of the simple look and it having an exo skeleton, it could have a much short assembly line than other pickup trucks which could see people like myself who are probably WAYYYY down the line in reservations, get them in a reasonable time (reasonable in terms of after production begins)

My assumption is that late 2022 we will see some of the first people recieve their Tesla. Since we will still have to wait for all the tests on the actual vehicle are completed.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

So I don't think there was any sort of assurance of the 4th quarter in 2021 being a delivery date, that's just when they say production will begin, which I think is a pretty realistic timeline but it's completely possible and within reason that an operation of this size could be a few months behind.

Some good news though is that because of the design and the materials of the Cybertruck, it could actually have a good production speed. Tesla doesn't have to worry about a bunch of curves and fancy designs, this truck is beautiful looking like "a doorstop" according to the people at Nikola. Because of the simple look and it having an exo skeleton, it could have a much short assembly line than other pickup trucks which could see people like myself who are probably WAYYYY down the line in reservations, get them in a reasonable time (reasonable in terms of after production begins)

My assumption is that late 2022 we will see some of the first people recieve their Tesla. Since we will still have to wait for all the tests on the actual vehicle are completed.

With the Model Y they sent a vehicle for testing a month or so before they said they were going to start deliveries (and as a recap that date was 8 months ahead of their original estimate).

 

[MUSK007]

MY. Looks like they should have taken their time and got it right first instead of delivering cars with QC problems. Sucks you can big dollars for a car and have it come out with defects that shows they have no QC.

 

[Blue Steel]

MY. Looks like they should have taken their time and got it right first instead of delivering cars with QC problems. Sucks you can big dollars for a car and have it come out with defects that shows they have no QC.

It's really not so different with any manufacturer. Except Tesla is a young automaker and therefore have more kinks to work through, and they get more attention. I've heard my whole life that it's better to buy a car near the end of it's model run than the beginning.

People getting early builds should definitely expect QC issues. The CT will be no different. Plus it will have "new" issues due to it's unusual design.

 

[Ehninger1212]

It's really not so different with any manufacturer. Except Tesla is a young automaker and therefore have more kinks to work through, and they get more attention. I've heard my whole life that it's better to buy a car near the end of it's model run than the beginning.

People getting early builds should definitely expect QC issues. The CT will be no different. Plus it will have "new" issues due to it's unusual design.

Also, most dealerships go over the vehicles and fix issues before they are put into the lot. To think every manufacturer except Tesla is perfect is way wrong. Tesla just needs to get better at catching things before the customer shows up. For example a scratch or loose sun shade..should be easily caught with a proper pre-delivery inspection.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

MY. Looks like they should have taken their time and got it right first instead of delivering cars with QC problems. Sucks you can big dollars for a car and have it come out with defects that shows they have no QC.

You are right in some ways, but the topic is about when Tesla will start delivering CTs and not when a Tesla will start delivering CTs with no manufacturing flaws. Are ‘any’ automobile manufacturers doing that? I hear about recalls and lawsuits over no recalls all the time, or outright lying like VW did which cost them much more in reputation. Tesla, it seems to me, is trying to do right by its adopters.

I think that early production of anything is going to have potential issues. Once the thing gets into automated production many issues have been addressed. Then you have a potentially never ending list of materials and design problems that could take years to unravel.

The only point I was trying to make is that when they announced the Model Y they said it would go into production in 18 months but it went into production in ~12 months. We use these numbers to make predictions. They could be wildly off but they will be used nonetheless.

I do not know categorically but I believe that a Tesla must have quality control, but they assign VINs to customers so the customer is given the opportunity to accept or reject the car and then other processes begin. This guess as to how things work may be completely wrong but I am betting that their QC inspectors note flaws and start working on how to fix them right away.