For those who are apposed to the $7,500 rebate.

[craz]

Not much to debate there. The average American apparently paid $37K for his car last year. The M3 is now selling for $38K without any subsidy and Tesla estimates cost savings of $7K relative to an ICE vehicle but shelve that as the consumer is interested in what he can get it off the lot for. If the promises of battery day are realized then Tesla will be at or below parity with ICE vehicles and the game will, presumably, be over for ICE.

The aggregate of all new car purchases gives you an average of $38k, but look at the data at a granular level:

https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2019-11-0...-Year-Over-Year-According-to-Kelley-Blue-Book

NEW mid-sized cars average $27k, and sub/compacts even less than that (as low as $16k). A mass market, critical-mass vehicle will likely need to be in that price range.

Another glaring hole in this data is that it only captures a small segment of the entire automobile market - new car purchases. The average American is not spending $38k on car, they are probably spending close to half of that on something used (or brand new if subcompact). So if you really want all ICE vehicles off the road you need to give these people an option.

You still aren't getting it. It is an incentive to the Rivian's, Fiskers, Nikolas, Jaguars, BMWs, Fords... to produce BEVs. Unfortunately none of them are building BEVs that people want to buy because Tesla is so far out front and so the benefit intended to accrue to them by the rebate is not being realized.

We aren't talking about blanket EV subsidies to the auto industry here (which I support). We are talking about Tesla making a shell company so that it can extract additional tax subsidies on top of what they've already received in order to boost demand on a product they already have years long backlog for.

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[ajdelange]

The aggregate of all new car purchases gives you an average of $38k, but look at the data at a granular level:

Actually I did that but thought that the average number would be more than sufficient to prove the point. Nonetheless here's the picture:

The picture makes it pretty clear what the story is.
A Tesla M3 is more expensive than a Sports Car - but not by much
A Tesla M3 is more expensive than a MiniVan - but not by much
A Tesla M3 is more expensive than a Pickup - but not by much
A Tesla M3 is more expensive than a Van - but not by much
A Tesla M3 is more expensive than a Full-sized car - but not by much

Consider the reduced operating costs of a BEV and we see that a M3 is cheaper than all but the 6 cheapest cars on the market. Given that the hot sellers are pickups, and SUVs I'd say that the M3 is already a car for the masses (this does not mean the masses perceive this and buy them). To solidly assert this I'd have to have data on the number of units of each type sold in order to see what rank (percentile) to assign the M3. Then we could argue as to whether 50.6%-ile or 41.2%-ile is necessary to qualify for "mass market". But it rather seems that the M3 is either currently or shortly will be a mass market vehicle.

NEW mid-sized cars average $27k, and sub/compacts even less than that (as low as $16k). A mass market, critical-mass vehicle will likely need to be in that price range.

To me mass market means that the sales are massive. Thus the Ford F-150 sold 900,000 units in 2019. As far as I am concerned that is a mass market.

Another glaring whole in this data is that it only captures a small segment of the entire automobile market - new car purchases. The average American is not spending $38k on car, they are probably spending close to half of that on something used (or brand new if subcompact). So if you really want all ICE vehicles off the road you need to give these people an option.

And they have one. They buy the M3 used after a couple of years at a price about half the $39K.

We aren't talking about blanket EV subsidies to the auto industry here (which I support). We are talking about Tesla making a shell company so that it can extract additional tax subsidies on top of what they've already received in order to boost demand on a product they already have years long backlog for.

Actually we were talking about the $7,000 credit in general.

Certainly Tesla should not try some shenanigans to get around the regulations nor do I think they would fool anyone if they did.

 

[craz]

Actually I did that but thought that the average number would be more than sufficient to prove the point. Nonetheless here's the picture...

That's a good plot, I applaud you putting in the effort to make it. I think where we disagree is what mass adoption looks like and how high the barrier to entry is. I'm leaning towards all-time compact car numbers where it feels like over half of the cars on the road are EV's. But the F-150 sales figures are truly outstanding, and are also a worthy goal.

 

[Crissa]

I didn't get any CARES act monies.

Like, we're not impacted, why would we anyhow?

-Crissa

 

[spid7154]

based on my income, no I didn't qualify...the money was miss used anyways...just saying...

 

[Cybertruck Tampa]

I never got any because I am employed and my salary is over $65K or whatever (and how would I ever afford a CT if it wasn’t?), and isn’t there is a salary cap on those EV rebates? I think that you make assumptions about the rebates and the ppp that are unwarranted.

I don’t know if that’s right. My wife and I have a combined income of 235k and we still got $75 deposited into our checking account?

 

[Bigvbear]

I fail to see how the PPP is comparable to the $7500 rebate. The tax credit of $7500 goes to the taxpayer who bought the car. The PPP is a loan to your employer to keep you on the payroll. I can't "give back" any PPP money as I am not an employer.

The CARES act was a stimulus to the economy (which failed), people didn't need stimulus, they needed help to pay for basic needs after losing their jobs or COVID 19 shutdowns.

 

[Stalwart]

Apposed or Opposed? Learn to spell.

 

[ajdelange]

Forgot in the earlier analysis that you can actually get a 3 for $35,000. Weigh that or not as you see fit.

 

[Pappy]

I’ll take my $7500 and stand proud when I do. I NEED that CT to reduce my operating cost of owning a vehicle to haul firewood, water and trash. I know about 90% of the people on this post don’t have to do that, but I do. I’m retired, I paid taxes all my life, and I’m good with that until... I see this guy and that guy stealing our tax money to benefit themselves. All the millionaires I know work in Government, hmmmm. Wonder what deficit would be if all PAC and Super PAC funds were put towards the deficit??

 

[ajdelange]

Perhaps it hasn't been made clear but you will NOT be getting $7500. Tesla passed the threshold two years ago. Tesla buyers do not qualify and unless congress changes the law to extend the rebate will not qualify in the future.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I don’t know if that’s right. My wife and I have a combined income of 235k and we still got $75 deposited into our checking account?

The link I provided said that for married filing jointly the threshold was $300K, which would suggest you would get something.