Updated CyberTruck to be shown in a month or so says Musk!

[TessP100D]

And, we wait... tick... tock... tick... tock

i am sure an update is coming tomorrow.

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[Crissa]

Well, there's a small overlap. Right now it is bigger since there are no electric trucks.

But they will both have a four-door cab, lockable storage, and similar cargo capacity. The disconnect will happen when someone wants something 'to throw lumber into', a longer bed, longer range, more cargo capacity, more durable materials, a little more ground clearance...

Rivian is going for something a little more maneuverable than Tesla is. Like the difference between the Taycan and the S... Slight, but it's there. And Rivian is already testing their SUV.

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

The Big 3 pickup truck platform leadership teams will be shaking In their boots about future employment when the details and final styling of the Cybertruck are publicly revealed for the first time.

The existing pickup truck makers have a huge advantage: they understand their core customers and their needs really well.

The Cybertruck is going to eat the Raptor's lunch, because the Raptor is about badassery. But it's also a low-volume boutique vehicle.

The Cybertruck is much less of a threat to regular F-150 sales because a lot of F-150 aren't about badassery. A lot of those customers want *exactly* what Ford/GM/RAM are selling now, and the platform leadership teams know exactly why in excruciating detail.

This is a smart strategy on Tesla's behalf, because they'll be able to sell Cybertrucks to people like me (who appreciate the technology and the projected-longevity), while they learn what it takes to satisfy the Ford/Chevy/RAM traditionalists. I expect that we will see a lot of Cybertruck variations over time as Tesla dials it in.

P.S. The American pick up truck market is a hard nut to crack. Toyota and Nissan have been trying for decades with the Tundra and Titan, and they've ended up as also-rans despite fielding smart products. The Cybertruck is a smart product, too, and I think they have a better chance because the CT has lots of things that I think are important -- but selling the Cybertruck to anyone in the rural branch of my family will be an uphill battle because they resist change and they honestly like what they have.

 

[HaulingAss]

1) Cybertruck and Rivian are not competing. Different trucks, different uses.
(they appeal to many of the same people ONLY because of our paucity of choices)

There are plenty of differentiators between the Cybertruck and the Rivian but the functionality that both designs meet has huge overlap. That means plenty of people will pick one or the other based largely on personal preference. In this respect they definitely compete. But neither one will be manufactured in large enough numbers to fulfill demand. So any competition between the two will not reduce sales of the other for years to come. For that to occur one of them needs to become sales limited instead of production limited.

2) Both Cybertruck and Rivian are going to be in short supply for years.

Nobody is going to be shaking in their boots this year. Or next year.

Further out? Maybe... but there may actually be competitors by then.

I think people are over-estimating Rivian's ability to bring their truck (and SUV) to market in a timely fashion and especially in large numbers. They will also have trouble showing a profit for many years. This is Rivian's greatest challenge and competition will determine whether or not they are viable. I do not have similar concerns with Tesla.

 

[Revoltlution]

Sandy does a tear down. Then Q1 22' get Texas version with casting and Volume. Now Sandy can do an update video and show improvements in such a short time frame..

I'm almost as excited for the Munro Live tear-down. That will be amazing (if they can crack it open)!

 

[FutureBoy]

I think people are over-estimating Rivian's ability to bring their truck (and SUV) to market in a timely fashion and especially in large numbers. They will also have trouble showing a profit for many years. This is Rivian's greatest challenge and competition will determine whether or not they are viable. I do not have similar concerns with Tesla.

In my mind, Rivian’s primary competition is actually going to be Amazon for the first few years. I know, that sounds crazy. Thing is, even though Amazon is backing Rivian, they are also counting on Rivian producing a large number of delivery trucks. The delivery trucks are going to cause Rivian to focus on two efforts instead of one. To the extent that the company is distracted getting the delivery truck side of things up and running, the R1T/S program is going to suffer.

I agree that there are plenty of available customers for both Rivian and Tesla trucks. So it really comes down to Rivians ability to scale up production. The first assembly lines of Tesla took a long time to get set up for reliability, quality, and mass production. Now Tesla has a lot of experience in this area and have become much quicker in getting a new production line set up.

Rivian though is just starting out setting up production lines. And they have to set up multiple lines simultaneously. This has potential to get real messy and cause all the lines to take longer than expected to get running well.

 

[HaulingAss]

In my mind, Rivian’s primary competition is actually going to be Amazon for the first few years. I know, that sounds crazy. Thing is, even though Amazon is backing Rivian, they are also counting on Rivian producing a large number of delivery trucks. The delivery trucks are going to cause Rivian to focus on two efforts instead of one. To the extent that the company is distracted getting the delivery truck side of things up and running, the R1T/S program is going to suffer.

I agree that there are plenty of available customers for both Rivian and Tesla trucks. So it really comes down to Rivians ability to scale up production. The first assembly lines of Tesla took a long time to get set up for reliability, quality, and mass production. Now Tesla has a lot of experience in this area and have become much quicker in getting a new production line set up.

Rivian though is just starting out setting up production lines. And they have to set up multiple lines simultaneously. This has potential to get real messy and cause all the lines to take longer than expected to get running well.

True, production lines need to be set up. But it doesn't end there. Supply chains need to be established, delivery networks, the list goes on. Amazon's delivery trucks will suck up batteries and more capital than Rivian has planned for.

The bottom line is Rivian's truck can not be made in large enough numbers or at a low enough cost to threaten Cybertruck's dominance for many years to come. It will take more than luck for Rivian to establish themselves as a competitive force and, if they are able to, it will take many years.

 

[HaulingAss]

The Cybertruck is much less of a threat to regular F-150 sales because a lot of F-150 aren't about badassery. A lot of those customers want *exactly* what Ford/GM/RAM are selling now, and the platform leadership teams know exactly why in excruciating detail.

Trucks are the most profitable segment for GM and Ford. Cutting into those sales like the Cybertruck will do is going to hurt profits disproportionately to the amount of lost sales. Even a 2% reduction in sales is going to hurt.

But it will take at least a few years before Tesla can even hope to get 5% of the truck market. The speed at which they do this will have little to do with consumer preference and everything to do with how quickly Tesla can continue to ramp production after they get the original production lines running smoothly. It will take years before Tesla is at peak Cybertruck production. Eventually, consumer preference will enter the equation but that point is far, far in the future because Tesla will have more demand than they can meet for at least 3 or 4 years. After that it depends upon how quickly they were able to ramp up production numbers and, eventually, how many people continue to prefer traditional body on frame trucks. But it will only be nostalgic types that continue to prefer trucks that are so inferior in so many ways while costing more to be crappy. Body on frame should have been retired decades ago.

The lighter, stronger more rigid chassis of the Cybertruck will tow heavy loads more safely with more control and less chance of trailer sway. The additional occupant protection will be hard for anyone who loves their family to ignore. In the event of an accident, the Cybertruck will be much less likely to kill or injure the occupants.

But don't underestimate the pain Cybertruck will cause existing truck makers even before they ramp to large volumes. Every lost sale will hurt them. Volume of their most profitable segment is key to keeping unit costs under control. ICE truck margins are on a long, slow path of steadily shrinking profit margins and lower sales every year.

 

[Crissa]

I don't think there is any evidence that current truck suppliers know their customers well. People who need trucks buy what's available. Seems to me that truck buyers are the least picky buyers.

-Crissa

 

[Dids]

And, we wait... tick... tock... tick... tock

 

[FutureBoy]

Wait, I almost missed a point in the tweet!

Elon calls Giga Texas: THAT BEAST

So we have a name for the machine that builds the machine!

Trying to at least not miss any crumbs here.

 

[Dids]

Wait, I almost missed a point in the tweet!

Elon calls Giga Texas: THAT BEAST

So we have a name for the machine that builds the machine!

Trying to at least not miss any crumbs here.

Like a crack addict crawling around on a carpet looking for a dropped rock.

 

[Frankenblob]

Git er DONE!

The longer this goes on the less interested I become and the more I see other potentials as fulfilling my requirements!

So Elon, quit tweeting and start MEETING!

 

[CompMaster]

The longer this goes on the less interested I become and the more I see other potentials as fulfilling my requirements!

Really? Double check your requirements.. One of the biggest for me is refuel/ease of use. As of today and for the next 5 years Tesla is the ONLY vitable option for me. As I travel with the fam, this is the only option. Just look at soooo many videos out there on going on any trip and the pain they go through finding chargers (that work) and prices the pay for those. But requires lots (or some extra) of planning. Versus Tesla, it will tell you where to charge, hoping your going to be there (estimated) and just easies the whole trip. With still the option to use any other charger out there with an adapter.

If just staying in town then yes any car will do as you can just charge at home..

 

[HaulingAss]

Git er DONE!

The longer this goes on the less interested I become and the more I see other potentials as fulfilling my requirements!

So Elon, quit tweeting and start MEETING!

I hope Elon keeps tweeting updates to us lazy souls waiting for him to build us a better mousetrap.

Even incredibly productive people like Elon need a little downtime to connect with those following along. After all, we will be the ones benefitting from all this hard work. The reason we don't have better trucks already is because the incumbents became fat and lazy when it came to reconsidering the best way to solve problems. They just keep making the same old trucks and improving the load capacity by adding more steel and increasing the power by making the engines spin faster or adding turbochargers and gradually increasing the maximum boost. But the frames still flex and the bodies still sway and the engines still suck gas like drunken sailors downing the last of your rum.

Some truck owners adapt by wearing their high fuel bills as badges of honor as they squash their hopes of having any money left over at the end of the month. But they will flock in droves once they have a real alternative.