How high will FSD and the base price go?

[Nestorddiaz]

Those are some good thoughts. You have me thinking ..... Elon is convinced that FSD "functionality" will be complete this year with "certainty". He says that the neuro network is learning very fast and we are at 99 percent now. Just have the "long march of 9s (.99999999) to go" for the 5x better than Humans. He meets with the FSD team weekly and has the latest Version in his car that "needs almost no intervention to work each day" through many environments including changing "construction" routes and conditions. Tesla owns about 99 percent of the driving data and are transitioning to AI vs. Algorithms so they are well ahead of the competition. So there are a few reasons to be optimistic. I suffer from confirmation bias because I have pre-ordered 12 cybertrucks for my robotaxi fleet!

Your ahead of me, I have 6 bought over the course of about May to now. My question is what will a reservation be worth? If it's going to go up to 100k 200k then does that mean you can sell your reservation for 100k 200k, possibly even more since not only is that expensive, you can't even buy one without a reservation sooo will a reservation be worth 200k plus 300k 400k?

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[Roger]

Those are some good thoughts. You have me thinking ..... Elon is convinced that FSD "functionality" will be complete this year with "certainty". He says that the neuro network is learning very fast and we are at 99 percent now. Just have the "long march of 9s (.99999999) to go" for the 5x better than Humans. He meets with the FSD team weekly and has the latest Version in his car that "needs almost no intervention to work each day" through many environments including changing "construction" routes and conditions. Tesla owns about 99 percent of the driving data and are transitioning to AI vs. Algorithms so they are well ahead of the competition. So there are a few reasons to be optimistic. I suffer from confirmation bias because I have pre-ordered 12 cybertrucks for my robotaxi fleet!

Tim, I have a group on FB for "The RoboTaxi Network - Fleet Owners". Please feel free to join it if interested. Hopefully you & group, both will bring some value to each other.

 

[Roger]

Your ahead of me, I have 6 bought over the course of about May to now. My question is what will a reservation be worth? If it's going to go up to 100k 200k then does that mean you can sell your reservation for 100k 200k, possibly even more since not only is that expensive, you can't even buy one without a reservation sooo will a reservation be worth 200k plus 300k 400k?

Nestorddiaz, I have a group on FB for "The RoboTaxi Network - Fleet Owners". Please feel free to join it if interested. Hopefully you & group, both will bring some value to each other.

 

[lancethibault]

I haven't seen anything for another $1k FSD bump for August. I thought these bump ups were going to be monthly. Anyone seen anything that hints when the next bump is coming?

 

[timjwright2.0]

Your ahead of me, I have 6 bought over the course of about May to now. My question is what will a reservation be worth? If it's going to go up to 100k 200k then does that mean you can sell your reservation for 100k 200k, possibly even more since not only is that expensive, you can't even buy one without a reservation sooo will a reservation be worth 200k plus 300k 400k?

Tesla's terms of purchase state that you agree to buy in good faith without the intention of re-selling. They reserve the right to cancel any order. This is concerning to me since I might not be able to finance 12 CTs at once, but selling a few for 100K would certainly help. The CT seems to be the perfect Robotaxi since it's so flexible and rugged. Surely Tesla realizes there will be a lot of customers taking him up on his offer to earn 30K a year. So I don't imagine getting flagged for multiple purchases but maybe trying to transfer ownership right after the purchase will be the obstacle.

 

[lancethibault]

Tesla's terms of purchase state that you agree to buy in good faith without the intention of re-selling. They reserve the right to cancel any order. This is concerning to me since I might not be able to finance 12 CTs at once, but selling a few for 100K would certainly help. The CT seems to be the perfect Robotaxi since it's so flexible and rugged. Surely Tesla realizes there will be a lot of customers taking him up on his offer to earn 30K a year. So I don't imagine getting flagged for multiple purchases but maybe trying to transfer ownership right after the purchase will be the obstacle.

I don't understand this logic at all. WRT to it's use as a robotaxi, there are so many assumptions built into this becoming a profitable argument in the short term that I'm amazed it's even being considered. As the laws change and less assumptions are required, more companies will be involved and FSD will have competition. Though admittedly, I have not considered doing this at all, so maybe I'm just missing the boat.

Regarding the reservation value being worth $200k - $400k...let's make another assumption and say you can sell the reservation number or the CT for that matter immediately after purchase. How many interested buyers at that price range are there? I hope you're the first to sell, because once it happens and more people realize they can make a profit just off their reservation number or even off their CT in hand, don't you think more will try selling their number or their CT, thereby decreasing the 6 figure value of the reservation number or resale value of the CT? I'm not saying you won't be able to sell it for a profit, but yes, I would be a little surprised and I don't see how this becomes very lucrative. Especially if it profitable after the tax you'll pay at purchase and of course the additional tax you'd have to pay on the profit. Seriously, good luck though. I genuinely hope I'm wrong and my daily driver becomes an asset opposed to just another vehicle that depreciates with each day and mile. That would truly be awesome! Then I just have to work out the numbers to see where the balance is that I can basically buy, drive, sell, upgrade and keeping driving around with a new vehicle for free the rest of my life. That's a day I'm looking forward to for sure.

 

[timjwright2.0]

Great points! Personally I agree that reselling the CT for ~$80K to $100K is a long shot. Even considering that by the time CTs are driving around and more people are interested in driving it and putting it on the Tesla Robotaxi network to finance it, and the wait might be a year by then. It's just so much money. And selling your place in line would be even a longer shot considering Tesla frowns on that. But if Elon can show very conclusive numbers that FSD is safer than humans, (and he will have billions of miles of data - the competition will not) it might go pretty smooth. Oddly there are no laws against it now.

As to the personal Robotaxi fleet viability, it takes a leap of faith in Elon and other analysts who say:

1. Tesla robotaxis (RT) will be profitable at $1 a mile and that this low price will be cheaper than Uber, Lyft or even owning a car. RT will be the preferred mode of transportation in 5 years.
2. FSD will be operational by the time the CT single engine is delivered.
3. Tesla owns 99% of all collected FSD data and is 6 years ahead of the competition in data collect, processors, programming, AI development, batteries, and manufacturing. Competition will not be an issue for at least 6 years and many will go bankrupt trying to develop and sell ICE and EVs at the same time
4. FSD will continue to rise in price up to $100,000. Elan stated this is its real value.
5. Tesla will retain its cars in the near future for a more profitable Robotaxi network and a quicker means to achieve their stated global EV transition objectives
6. CT RT participants and fleet owners are being encouraged with a $100 reservation to help fill out the RT network, especially in rural areas. Tesla will initially deploy RTs in Urban areas until enout RT are produced.
7. RT will earn ~30K net annually
8. By the time this all looks doable a Tesla and FSD will be cost prohibitive.

So I agree, that's a lot of crazy variables, but what the heck, its a $100 per CT refundable bet on Elon Musk.

 

[timjwright2.0]

I haven't seen anything for another $1k FSD bump for August. I thought these bump ups were going to be monthly. Anyone seen anything that hints when the next bump is coming?

I believe Elon only said they would "continue" to go up. In one interview he said the real value will eventually be $100K.