Heavy-duty BEVs like the Tesla Semi won’t work—biofuels a better option: Bill Gates

[CappyJax]

I don't understand why you resort to extreme sarcasm when I had agreed with you and only gave reason as to why part of the market would most likely be uninterested in switching over to a new technology for their business. Do you feel such a need to be right that if someone shows even a slight disagreeance that you would rather cease all intelligent coversation and revert back to childish ways of arguing.

To go one step further, it's unlikely that most of the trucking industry will suddently switch to electric vehicles, Tesla or not, because there are so many more factors than what people see. Semi trucks are expensive, many owner operators, or large companies are still paying off their fleet, the infrastructure won't be fully in place for quite some time, there is still the large upfront cost that a lot of companies don't always have in their budget to immediately put down. Also larger trucking operations use fuel hedging, meaning they purchase a set amount of fuel for a certain price and they can keep fueling their trucks for that cost until they've used the amount they've purchased. There is also maintenance costs, some of these companies have full maintenance departments working round the clock to keep their trucks operational. Training on electric trucks won't come fast, easy, or cheap and for a lot of companies, it will probably make sense to keep their trucks for the remainder of their lives and they might not fully replace a fleet of diesel trucks for 15-20 years.

Now I think that a lot of companies will make the switch, I think the electric models will be better and reduce costs, I want to see more and more electric vehicles replace gas and diesel to improve air quality and reduce dependancy on non reusable resources, but that doesn't mean there are 0 arguements of doing that immediately and i'm happy to play the devil's advocate to have a health conversation and allow for more points for both sides of the argument to come forward.

Problem is, we weren't having an intelligent conversation. I have absolutely no idea what your point is or for that which you are arguing. The topic of the post was about Gates saying it wasn't feasible. I was listing all the ways in which it is feasible. And a few people chime in about how there are still hurdles involved as if magically Tesla will produce a million trucks at once and everything on the road will be electric. Your argument came off as trolling, so you got the sarcasm.

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[CyberMoose]

My post came off as trolling? the post that you acknowledged as a small part of the market, which is what i was refering to as the part of the population that needed additional range because at the time you were saying that range wouldn't matter because they could drive as much as they could and then charge overnight. I feel like my response was quite within the topic that was being discussed and I've made it very clear in every reply i've ever made in argument against EV that I believe EVs are the better choice and any problems that EVs have will eventually be solved to be better than Gas/Diesel engines.

I just like to have healthy discussions to hear what sort of ideas or situations that people can think of. If someone is arguing for EVs, I will play devils advocate and propose an argument against.

 

[Migizi]

Bill Gates made his first fortune by purchasing CPM, leasing it to IBM, letting them develop IBM DOS, then stealing their design and calling it microsoft dos.

take what Gates says and does with a grain if salt.

 

[ldjessee]

Here is the thing, I really do not care if giant, very successful corporations can save $0.20 a ton by keeping a diesel truck on the road instead of buying an EV or even hydrogen fuel cell truck. The studies have come in proving that pollution from diesel engines lowers IQ in babies, increases health issues in children, and the pollution of transporting, refining, and burning diesel fuel is bad for climate change and the environment in general.

They might not be good enough reasons for some, but it is for me.

I know on this forum we have discussed the charging while loading and unloading... and in this thread it was brought up that a driver can work 14 hours, but can only spend 11 of it driving (breaks, loading/unloading, refueling, etc) takes up the other bits. And there is no reason that charging cannot be happening while those activities are going on. Even if the truck is not low.

This approach to supercharger travel has been discussed here and elsewhere for other of Tesla's vehicles. A driver does not need to have a charge for the whole trip, just enough to get to the next charger and a safety margin. And if it is 500 miles with an 80% load, that is still going to cover a lot of trips, even with baking in time for charging. And, if these giant warehouses and distribution centers cover those big flat roofs with solar panels, they can even further offset their 'fuel' costs.

Trip planing software can (and in some cases, already does) take into account hills, traffic, weather, and vehicle status (weight, etc) and its effect on the range of the vehicle. In an industry like trucking, of course this kind of software will be used, if not provided by Tesla, companies will come up with it, because it will save them time and make using an EV semi much better.

Tesla has already said it is working on a short nose semi for Europe and a sleeper version for those markets where that is needed. If they are a new manufacturer of cars, they are even a newer manufacturer of commercial vehicles. Just using their test trucks to make runs I am sure is teaching them so much. Just like they learned from the Roadster and the Model S/X, they will learn from their first trucks, the short range, 'route' truck. Then as they expand their market capability by extending the range, they will need to incorporate sleepers, etc.

I am sure improved battery technology will push the point of inflection of the length of a trip when the EV loses out to an ICE semi, from a purely financial perspective.

Which I think is a short sighted perspective.

Just my thoughts. Not calling anyone names, not pointing any fingers.

 

[ProfessorRon]

I agree with most of this but we do still need to improve the storage capacity and charging speed, which of course we are heading towards this. One problem that will reduce the benefit of the Tesla semi is that it isn't really built for a dual crew non stop operation. We live in a world where expedited shipping is becoming more and more popular and this has become a huge factor for Trucking operations. There are a lot of long range crews out there now and they will often have sleep schedules which allows them to travel non stop for a couple thousand miles, only stopping for food and bathroom breaks.

The Tesla semi will need to be modified by Tesla or modified after purchase for a sleeping quarter which I heard that it doesn't have, and we will need slightly faster charging rates, fast enough that you could start charging, run in to grab some food and use the washroom, and have the charging complete by the time you come out.

I'm not saying the Tesla semi won't be able to do this, I have complete faith that we are only a few years away from being able to do this. But this is one thing that could affect which operations want to stick with a diesel or switch to a EV semi.

Some trucks have sleeper cabs, some don’t. Tesla makes both so no modification will be necessary. One driver will be able to control 2 or even 3 trucks which will make 2 drivers a thing of the past. Tesla will change the semi experience we now know change very quickly.

 

[Geo]

Bill Gates’ recent post about electric vehicles contained a number of interesting insights about his views on electrification. While the Microsoft co-founder noted that EVs present an ideal solution for short-haul travel, he argued that battery-electric vehicles will probably never be a practical solution for heavy-duty machinery like 18-wheelers. This makes vehicles like the Tesla Semi inherently flawed, at least according to the tech visionary.

Gates explained in his post that EVs do not work as long-haul vehicles like semitrailers because batteries are big and heavy.

Source: Teslarati

Old Billy boy knows a thing a two about technology and a bit about batteries specifically !
Dismissing Bills advice is foolish if not perilous.

His remarks about biofuels and batteries are even more curious against the fact he's a big backer in this huge battery company that's about to go public. Oh' and its apparently about to announce a huge breakthrough in energy density !

Note: Fact is, in the last 10 years energy density for the best automotive battery has improved marginally from 240 wh/kg to about 260 wh/kg !
( Its the reduction in cost that has been huge )

https://marker.medium.com/vw-one-ups-tesla-with-a-revolutionary-battery-breakthrough-be51849ea092

 

[CappyJax]

Old Billy boy knows a thing a two about technology and a bit about batteries specifically !
Dismissing Bills advice is foolish if not perilous.

His remarks about biofuels and batteries are even more curious against the fact he's a big backer in this huge battery company that's about to go public. Oh' and its apparently about to announce a huge breakthrough in energy density !

Note: Fact is, in the last 10 years energy density for the best automotive battery has improved marginally from 240 wh/kg to about 260 wh/kg !
( Its the reduction in cost that has been huge )

https://marker.medium.com/vw-one-ups-tesla-with-a-revolutionary-battery-breakthrough-be51849ea092

So, how do you explain the Tesla semi? Are they just lying to everyone?

 

[Crissa]

So, how do you explain the Tesla semi? Are they just lying to everyone?

Lying about what? They're very heavy.

-Crissa

 

[CappyJax]

Lying about what? They're very heavy.

-Crissa

How much does it weigh?

 

[Ehninger1212]

How much does it weigh?

1 million billion trillion... fufillion.... ounces

 

[Crissa]

How much does it weigh?

That's an interesting lack of answer.

-Crissa

 

[Geo]

How much does it weigh?

Enough to get a 500 mile range while towing 80,000 lbs. . . . . . when it eventually hits the market.

( estimated at roughly around 1000 kwh )

 

[CappyJax]

That's an interesting lack of answer.

-Crissa

You had an uninteresting rhetorical question. And interestingly you also lack an answer to your own rhetorical question.

 

[Crissa]

You had an uninteresting rhetorical question. And interestingly you also lack an answer to your own rhetorical question.

Because you were trolling? So you avoided the conversation to troll some more.

You asserted they were lying, and then distracted to avoid covering your own argument.

-Crissa

 

[CappyJax]

I didn't assert that Tesla was lying. I was suggesting that Bill was asserting that they were lying.