First principles pondering

[LoPro]

Great conversation over the differences between hydrogen vs electric.

Here’s what I want to know. Which one has “cooler” explosions or catastrophic events?

We are all well acquainted with hydrocarbon explosions, fires, etc. For the vast majority of us, this is not firsthand knowledge. Instead, it has been a trope in so many tv shows and movies that it is like we experienced it ourselves. Gas stations blowing up, cars exploding after flying over a cliff, gas tanks being shot at, laying a trail of gas that can be lit to burn something from a distance, tension created by a fire next to fuel barrels that will explode just in time for our hero to jump to safety while a cool fireball explodes in the background, having the hero swim underwater while the surface burns.

Clearly most of these situations are not exactly realistic or experienced on a day-to-day basis. But without them, where would all the excitement in media go? Rooms of writers the world over are going to need a set of replacement tropes to use.

So which technology do you think will win out in the media? Which one will those writers want to work with? Which one will the public become more familiar with through shared media exaggeration?

I have to say that so far, I have not been impressed by the tension created by an imagined electric grid future. Sure, electricity can get shut off, downed power lines can electrocute, enemies can be tortured with a sparking power cable. But beyond that, the imagined catastrophes have been rather lame and make poor plot points.

How will we collectively be entertained? If there is no catastrophic medium, why would we pick that infrastructure build out? The vast majority of the populace is not making cash choices over the future infrastructure debates. But they are contributing to our shared vision of the future infrastructure through media selection. Which technology will win their vote?

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you but the main fuel storage with regard to EVs is in the car itself, and what the media calls “a Tesla fire” is supposedly very hard to put out. That’s a pretty media-friendly fire as well. So much so that here there’s concerns around underground/ground floor parking garages, especially older ones where (non-EV) people live over, and long term EV parking (rightly or not).

I haven’t seen a burnt away Tesla myself, and neither an exploded hydrogen car truth be told, unless both is supposed to be just dust left. That’s more cartoon than media territory though.?

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[DLH208]

Love your input! But is Hydrogen that simple?
make hydrogen with electricity from grid, fill hydrogen tank, pressurize to crazy pressure, fill hydrogen in truck, drive truck to gas station, keep cold and pressurized, fill hydrogen to tank at gas station, keep cold and pressurized, fill hydrogen tank in car, convert to electricity, use electric motor...car moves.

more like it...

Best regards

Ekki

 

[Dan Truax]

"The reality “Can GRID electric support BEV?” Texas brought front and center."

This is a poor example. Texas could not support base loading.

Why?
It wasn't designed to operate at those cold temperatures. Wind, solar, nuclear, and gas plants all shut down because of cold temps. In upstate NY we can handle these cold temps because our generation was designed to to so.

Just like Fukushima wasn't designed to operate underwater.

I have worked at a Nuclear plant and now work for the grid.

Electricity generators would LOVE to support electric car charging.
Rates go way down at night, if people came home from work the natural gas plants would not drop load at night and continue to run, making money instead of losing it. The supply is there (outside of weather abnormalities) since we took most of our manufacturing overseas. The demand is gone.

The grid can support it, the 1st question is how much would that raise electricity prices for the middle class and poor who can't afford BEVs.

The second question is what to do with all that unused gasoline. We are going to have to inject it into gas turbines to make it into electricity. A barrel of oil is 40-50% gasoline. And we need the other components of that barrel for plastics, asphalt, and diesel.

Think...

 

[CanEHdian]

Very strange that for over 10 years there are all these huge auto corporations that say hydrogen fuel cells are better.
Before 2020, these corporations had total market caps a couple orders of magnitude larger than Tesla.
Tesla started investing in U.S. based Superchargers in 2012.
By Dec 2019 Tesla had invested almost infinite magnitude more in charging infrastructure than all the ICE competitors promoters of hydrogen cars did in U.S. based hydrogen stations.

I say infinite magnitude because most all of the U.S. hydrogen stations that do exist were paid for by tax payer. Did Toyota or Honda or GM pay for even a single U.S. hydrogen station?
How much total did Toyota or Honda or GM pay in total from 2012-1019 vs Tesla?


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By May 2016, the small upstart company Tesla had 66,000 vehicles in operation and Tesla privately paid/built/owned 611 Supercharger (DC Fast 100Kw>) sites, with 3,600 individual plugs for public use by Tesla owners to use.
Most large metro areas in U.S. had multiple Supercharger sites, most states had multiple Supercharger sites (only a few like Montana, Alaska had none), and there where 3 complete cross-country routes that Tesla owners could use to drive from east cost to west coast (or the reverse). Over 4 years later the all the major auto companies that talk up hydrogen fueling & FCEVs have not added even 1/100 of what Tesla alone with EV charging.

Tesla Supercharger map fills in more U.S. gaps for electric-car charging
Stephen Edelstein
March 24, 2016
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ls-in-more-u-s-gaps-for-electric-car-charging


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By Dec 30, 2016 the largest auto companies in the world who promoted hydrogen fuel cars (Toyota, Honda, GM and others) and their partners suppliers had only established about 20 hydrogen stations.
At that time these companies were order of magnitude larger than Tesla yet U.S. nationwide had fewer hydrogen stations than Tesla had in some city metro areas.

2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Hydrogen > Access: Public
2 locations in 49 states of U.S., excludes state of California.
45 locations in state California.
47 locations in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&f47uel=HY


Today (2021 Feb), Tesla has single Supercharger sites with more charging stalls than there are public hydrogen station nationwide. The small city of Pasadena, CA (near Los Angeles) has more public high-speed EV charger plugs than there are hydrogen sites nationwide.

With all the talk, why have these huge auto companies & their partners put relatively nothing into hydrogen fueling infrastructure ?

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2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Tesla owned Superchargers (DC high-speed)
772 locations, total 6,667 charging outlets in 49 states of U.S., excludes state of California.
202 locations, total 2,953 charging outlets in state California.
974 locations, total 9,620 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_networks=Tesla&ev_levels=all


2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Non-Tesla owned L2/L1 destination chargers for Tesla Vehicles (@t stores, malls, hotels, parks, etc. Not homes)
4,435 locations, total 11,232 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_networks=Tesla Destination&ev_levels=all

2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Chargers type CSS & Chademo for other car brands (@ stores, malls, hotels, parks, etc. Not homes)
3,929 locations, total 7,508 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_networks=Tesla Destination&ev_levels=all


U.S. Largest Public Tesla Supercharging Station
Firebaugh, California and offers 56 individual charging stalls.
https://insideevs.com/news/454424/new-world-largest-public-tesla-supercharging-station/


In less than three years, Electrify America passes 500 charging-station locations and 2,200 individual DC fast-charging stations.
Electrify America finished its first cross-country route.
Stephen Edelstein
November 12, 2020
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...tation-locations-as-it-keeps-building-network

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There are now Tesla super chargers all along the trans Canada Highway from east coast to west coast. No other company or auto manufacturer has even tried to do the same .

 

[Iacemoe]

Starting in 2023 most Tesla batteries will be LiFePO4 (LFP) in 4680 format. No nickel & no cobalt.

No cobalt for sure... but Nickel is definitely in recipe for the future of 4680 cells.

 

[FutureBoy]

No cobalt for sure... but Nickel is definitely in recipe for the future of 4680 cells.

Yes, on battery day it was clear that the CT would be getting the high nickel batteries. With the latest news though I'm wondering if the single motor and maybe even the dual-motor might end up with the low nickel or iron-based batteries. If there is room for enough of the other options in those CTs that would still provide enough range it seems like that option would free up some nickel for the tri-motor and semi.

 

[firsttruck]

No cobalt for sure... but Nickel is definitely in recipe for the future of 4680 cells.

4680 is a size format (46mm diameter x 80mm height). 4680 tells you nothing about chemistry.
Right now Tesla announced
LiFePO4 (LFP) in 4680
Nickel + Manganese 4680
High Nickel 4680

LiFePO4 (LFP) in 4680 will be the most common battery because it will be used in the most high volume lower cost vehicles (Model 2?, Model 3 standard, Model Y standard, and maybe lower end Cybertruck) and in all energy storage products (powerwall, powerpack, megapack, etc).

LiFePO4 (LFP) in 4680 format. No nickel & no cobalt.