First principles pondering

[rr6013]

TEXAS…asserts $17k electricity bill is consumer’s stupidity, due and owing. In the internet swiped image (above) of Elon what could he be_pondering_.

Why? Whichever way Future plays out Elon positioned Tesla with a suite of technological advances to provide it “first mover” advantage. Electrical motors, battery, electron generation(solar), electron storage and energy distribution enable Tesla to stand at the forefront. What Elon must be pondering is some self-imposed limit.

The reality “Can GRID electric support BEV?” Texas brought front and center. My un-scientific back of envelope wild ass guess is that the USA grid network would need 2x capacity to support all proposed BEV production in the next five years. Charging could be quite expensive for *any* weakness in grid-tie charging. Texas revealed the cost of weakness - $17k. Texas.gov asserted a free market philosophy in support of weak utilities.

Right now I have a $100 hedge on a LiON future Cybertruck. This image pretty much reflects my own thoughts. I thought that Benjamin was going to cost me $70k USD. But TCO has reared its ugly mug. It is 100% consumer responsibility those who buy LiON and need electrons. You will pay market rate for your electrons, buyer be warned.

Suddenly, I feel a pivot impulse coarsing through my nervous system that makes me look just like Elon pondering first principles in this collage. What I ponder? Hydrogen.

Grid-electricity highway charging robbery needs an consumer option. Could you accept a plug-compatible electron connection for a bed mounted hydrogen fuel cell as the next “Jerry can”?

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[Firetruck41]

My rates are not variable. Rates are set by an elected local public utility commission. Rates generally are adjusted every 3-5 years. There is no "profit" for the public utility. I'm not worried, for now.

You have to generate hydrogen with electricity and then lose about 50% of your electrons along the way, so not sure that is the solution.

 

[rr6013]

Lifecycle analysis that hydrogen is lose-lose may transition to a synergy coalescing around excess solar/wind. It is early days still.

Lucky you! You did not own a charging Tesla hooked up to Texas grid during its weather induced grid-crisis. I live where electricity goes down daily. Raised REI, unstable electricity is the norm. But 28years in civilized utility areas spoilt me. You begin to just assume electrons just flow and rates are set. Luckily you have rate protection in your service area.

I toured Texas Oct2020, I would’ve charged up without thinking. it could’ve cost me $900 - just by forgetting to unplug the car during the freeze. Its not possible to get across Texas without charging. What’s a bloke to do when you are out of options? That is not settled ground. And Internationally, will never be settled.

 

[Crissa]

You have to generate hydrogen with electricity and then lose about 50% of your electrons along the way, so not sure that is the solution.

Yes.

But you lose power storing it for months no matter what you do - batteries are no different on that front, you just lose it later in the process. Or transporting it, transmitting it. There's just lots of bad solutions. Hydrogen has the advantage of being made from something that's readily available all over the planet and all human cities have a source of.

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

Yes.

But you lose power storing it for months no matter what you do - batteries are no different on that front, you just lose it later in the process. Or transporting it, transmitting it. There's just lots of bad solutions. Hydrogen has the advantage of being made from something that's readily available all over the planet and all human cities have a source of.

-Crissa

Here is review of one:

 

[Crissa]

Cars are probably a pretty terrible use for hydrogen. Which the tank is energy dense, compared to batteries,mit has to be paired with a fuel cell and a battery, so it'a a bulky combination.

-Crissa

 

[Newton]

Hydrogen is a doable thing for cars, if some 1 invests in some infrastructure, and make it clean.

But in first principle thought...
Simpler is better.
Ev: fill battery with electricity from grid, use electric motor...car moves.
Hydrogen: make hydrogen with electricity from grid, fill hydrogen tank, convert to electricity, use electric motor...car moves.

 

[Crissa]

Well, hydrogen is storage.

Fill from grid when price is low. Dispense as needed.

You need two batteries for that... And batteries are bigger, more expensive, and more resource-intensive.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

Hydrogen is a doable thing for cars, if some 1 invests in some infrastructure, and make it clean.

But in first principle thought...
Simpler is better.

Ev: fill battery with electricity from grid, use electric motor...car moves.

Hydrogen: make hydrogen with electricity from grid, fill hydrogen tank, convert to electricity, use electric motor...car moves.

There is a very energy intensive step missing from the Hydrogen path: Compression of the gas.

Also there usually more tanks than just the tank in the car.

If "green" hydrogen is created at neighborhood fueling site/station using solar or wind
tank for water or water pipeline
Electrolysis device (separate water into hydrogen and oxygen) * very energy intensive
compressor for compression of hydrogen gas * very energy intensive
station tank of compressed hydrogen

But today & for many years in the future the most common source of hydrogen will be
"dirty" hydrogen created for natural gas or other fossil fuels.
hydrogen created off-site (not at neighborhood fueling station)
natural gas pipeline
refinery system to break up natural gas into hydrogen and other gases.
compressor for compression of hydrogen gas * very energy intensive
hydrogen factory huge station tank of compressed hydrogen
transfer compressed gas to truck with compressed gas tank trailer
drive truck to neighborhood hydrogen station.
transfer hydrogen from compressed gas tank trailer to station's compressed gas tank

 

[firsttruck]

Hydrogen is a doable thing for cars, if some 1 invests in some infrastructure, and make it clean.

Very strange that for over 10 years there are all these huge auto corporations that say hydrogen fuel cells are better.
Before 2020, these corporations had total market caps a couple orders of magnitude larger than Tesla.
Tesla started investing in U.S. based Superchargers in 2012.
By Dec 2019 Tesla had invested almost infinite magnitude more in charging infrastructure than all the ICE competitors promoters of hydrogen cars did in U.S. based hydrogen stations.

I say infinite magnitude because most all of the U.S. hydrogen stations that do exist were paid for by tax payer. Did Toyota or Honda or GM pay for even a single U.S. hydrogen station?
How much total did Toyota or Honda or GM pay in total from 2012-1019 vs Tesla?


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By May 2016, the small upstart company Tesla had 66,000 vehicles in operation and Tesla privately paid/built/owned 611 Supercharger (DC Fast 100Kw>) sites, with 3,600 individual plugs for public use by Tesla owners to use.
Most large metro areas in U.S. had multiple Supercharger sites, most states had multiple Supercharger sites (only a few like Montana, Alaska had none), and there where 3 complete cross-country routes that Tesla owners could use to drive from east cost to west coast (or the reverse). Over 4 years later the all the major auto companies that talk up hydrogen fueling & FCEVs have not added even 1/100 of what Tesla alone with EV charging.

Tesla Supercharger map fills in more U.S. gaps for electric-car charging
Stephen Edelstein
March 24, 2016
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ls-in-more-u-s-gaps-for-electric-car-charging


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By Dec 30, 2016 the largest auto companies in the world who promoted hydrogen fuel cars (Toyota, Honda, GM and others) and their partners suppliers had only established about 20 hydrogen stations.
At that time these companies were order of magnitude larger than Tesla yet U.S. nationwide had fewer hydrogen stations than Tesla had in some city metro areas.

2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Hydrogen > Access: Public
2 locations in 49 states of U.S., excludes state of California.
45 locations in state California.
47 locations in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&f47uel=HY


Today (2021 Feb), Tesla has single Supercharger sites with more charging stalls than there are public hydrogen station nationwide. The small city of Pasadena, CA (near Los Angeles) has more public high-speed EV charger plugs than there are hydrogen sites nationwide.

With all the talk, why have these huge auto companies & their partners put relatively nothing into hydrogen fueling infrastructure ?

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2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Tesla owned Superchargers (DC high-speed)
772 locations, total 6,667 charging outlets in 49 states of U.S., excludes state of California.
202 locations, total 2,953 charging outlets in state California.
974 locations, total 9,620 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_networks=Tesla&ev_levels=all


2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Non-Tesla owned L2/L1 destination chargers for Tesla Vehicles (@t stores, malls, hotels, parks, etc. Not homes)
4,435 locations, total 11,232 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/...C&ev_networks=Tesla Destination&ev_levels=all

2020 Dec, U.S. Alternative Fueling Station Locator > Electric > Access: Public > Chargers type CSS & Chademo for other car brands (@ stores, malls, hotels, parks, etc. Not homes)
3,929 locations, total 7,508 charging outlets in 50 states of U.S.
https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/...C&ev_networks=Tesla Destination&ev_levels=all


U.S. Largest Public Tesla Supercharging Station
Firebaugh, California and offers 56 individual charging stalls.
https://insideevs.com/news/454424/new-world-largest-public-tesla-supercharging-station/


In less than three years, Electrify America passes 500 charging-station locations and 2,200 individual DC fast-charging stations.
Electrify America finished its first cross-country route.
Stephen Edelstein
November 12, 2020
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...tation-locations-as-it-keeps-building-network

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[Luke42]

Hydrogen is a doable thing for cars, if some 1 invests in some infrastructure, and make it clean.

But in first principle thought...
Simpler is better.
Ev: fill battery with electricity from grid, use electric motor...car moves.
Hydrogen: make hydrogen with electricity from grid, fill hydrogen tank, convert to electricity, use electric motor...car moves.

If you were to make hydrogen from green electricity (commercial hydrogen is usually natural gas with the carbon knocked out), then you can analyze it exactly as if it were a battery chemistry. It's just a little easier to move the not-really-an-electrolyte around in the hydrogen vehicle.

From what I've gathered, lithium batteries win the battery chemistry contest quite easily. My quick numbers put hydrolysis efficiency at around 80%, and battery charging efficiency, and lithium battery efficiency at around 99%. Lithium wins.

The follow-up question is: if commercial hydrogen is really just reformed natural gas, then what is the most efficient way to convert natural gas into automotive motion? Why not just burn the compressed natural gas in an ICE engine, and be done with it? CNG (and propane) cars are a thing, and so we can compare those head-to-head with an EV as well.

Once again, EVs come out looking pretty good,
even though CNG conversions suffer from some of the same problems (loss of cargo space and capacity) as EV conversions. But, still, anything Tesla makes bests anything I've seen from a CNG vehicle.

 

[firsttruck]

My old numbers put hydrolysis efficiency at around 80%,

Does that 80% include compressing the hydrogen gas?

 

[Crissa]

But that's a terrible way to look at Hydrogen.

If you need to make a million vehicles, the amount of metals needed to make hydrogen fuel stacks vs lithium batteries... and the stacks win, hands down. Batteries are very resource intensive to make.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

But that's a terrible way to look at Hydrogen.

If you need to make a million vehicles, the amount of metals needed to make hydrogen fuel stacks vs lithium batteries... and the stacks win, hands down. Batteries are very resource intensive to make.

-Crissa

Right now batteries are resource intensive. But what will it look like when battery recycling kicks in? From what I understand, the recycling process would be much less intensive. So really, the intensity of batteries would primarily be a first generation issue. Once enough of the resources had been pulled together, that intensity would basically be completed.

 

[firsttruck]

If you need to make a million vehicles, the amount of metals needed to make hydrogen fuel stacks vs lithium batteries... and the stacks win, hands down. Batteries are very resource intensive to make.

Continually making "green" hydrogen uses alot of energy, and both electrolyzers & fuel cells use materials that can have issues and get used and need replacing.


Starting in 2023 most Tesla batteries will be LiFePO4 (LFP) in 4680 format. No nickel & no cobalt.

Toyota Mirai (Gen-2) 2020 uses the latest pressure standard, H70/700 bar (10,000 psi).
Only holds 5.6 kilograms of hydrogen compressed to 10,000 psi.

Lithium is not a rare but some of hydrogen fuel cell materials are.

Toyota Mirai (Gen-2) 2020 fuel cell uses

10 grams platinum $30-$40/gram - ( platinum is much rarer than gold)
Toyota Mirai (Gen-1) 2015-2019 used 30g. ICE catalytic converters use 2-5g.

?? grams ruthenium $60-$70/gram (ruthenium compounds, highly toxic and carcinogenic)


Hydrogen cars depend on a single material that is becoming more scarce
Hydrogen fuel cells require significantly more platinum than the platinum in ICE vehicle catalytic converters.
Maxx Chatsko, The Motley Fool
Jun 7, 2017
https://www.businessinsider.com/hyd...-material-that-is-becoming-more-scarce-2017-6


Two other issues
1. Today, generating "green" hydrogen requires a lot of fresh clean water.
Research is working on electrolyzers for sea water but the technology is not in general production yet. These sea water devices will probably cost more & be less energy efficient than fresh water devices. Getting enough clean fresh water is already a problem in many places of the world including California USA. Do we want another situation like fuel use of ethanol (farmers & industry taking potential food resources to make fuel).

2. With solar panels & LiFePO4 (LFP) EV batteries you make the solar panels once and they last 20-30 years with almost no maintenance and batteries should last 12 -20 years before being recycled. Creating green hydrogen is similar to refining fossil fuels in that you have to continually create it. Kilograms after kilograms of hydrogen needed to be created. The devices like electrolyzers equipment have wearable items whose life depend on quality of input feedstock and volume of usage. Fresh water electroyers electrodes have a certain duration. Future seawater electrodes will probably be more expensive and not last as long.