CyberTruck delivery date issue

[DES]

I have tesla Model S with the full limited warranty that expires on 10/17/2022. I will hit the year limit before the miles. I am a triple-motor CyberTruck reservation holder. I ordered the CyberTruck on 12/03/2019, so I’m not at the top of the list. My issue is I don’t want to keep my Model S past 10/17/2022, as I don’t want it past the full limited warranty. Is there any chance the CyberTruck will be delivered by 10/17/2022? I don’t see that as real likely. I’m thinking maybe I’d get a new Model Y, until the CyberTruck is delivered. My thought is to get the Model Y in the next few months. I don’t want to wait until the end of my Model S warranty, and then the CyberTruck isn’t delivering, and then buy another Tesla, as it would not allow me enough time to own it long enough to get value from it. So, do you guys think the trade my Model S now and own the Y for a few years, and trade it on the CyberTruck when it comes out is a decent plan?

Est Position: 323,088
Est Position for Trim: 107,053
Est Delivery Month: 12/22/2022

Note: I don’t have any desire to debate the warranty topic, (full limited, vs battery & power train), so please respect that.

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[TruckDaddy]

You feel more secure under warranty and risking a single repair in a matter of a few months vs. the SURE depreciation of a new model?

 

[Crissa]

There's no evidence either way. Currently, we only have past performance. They unveiled the Model 3 in 2016, and it was being delivered in 2017. In 2018, they were making over five thousand a week.

This time they gave themselves more time from launch to delivery; and they've been successful ramping up production lines in Fremont and Shanghai very quickly.

The computed delivery estimate is based on Model 3 but the new factory will be much larger. Also, we can't really know how many of those reservations will be in the geographical release zones, so your position is mixed with others who reserved earlier, but will have to wait for homologation.

In other words, you're closer to the front than you think, and you'll probably get your Cybertruck before your S ages out.

-Crissa

 

[DES]

You feel more secure under warranty and risking a single repair in a matter of a few months vs. the SURE depreciation of a new model?

Yeah, you make a good point, and I’ve considered it. Getting another car, and having to endure another new car depreciation, is not ideal either. It is something I face though by always buying newer cars. If I had any confidence in the December 2022 estimated delivery date, then I’d risk it, but I don’t. I’d be suprised if anyone gets the CyberTruck by 2022, let alone me at #300,000+. if Tesla starts delivering by end of the year 2021, then I will definitely be of a different opinion. I may just keep it for as long as I can, under warranty, and just sell it a few months before it expires, on the open market, if the CyberTruck isn’t being delivered yet. If the Cybertruck doesn’t get to me until late 2023, then it would have been a waste not have a newer model Y during these 3 years. It’s a gamble.

 

[Crissa]

Be prepared to be surprised.

-Crissa

 

[DES]

There's no evidence either way. Currently, we only have past performance. They unveiled the Model 3 in 2016, and it was being delivered in 2017. In 2018, they were making over five thousand a week.

This time they gave themselves more time from launch to delivery; and they've been successful ramping up production lines in Fremont and Shanghai very quickly.

The computed delivery estimate is based on Model 3 but the new factory will be much larger. Also, we can't really know how many of those reservations will be in the geographical release zones, so your position is mixed with others who reserved earlier, but will have to wait for homologation.

In other words, you're closer to the front than you think, and you'll probably get your Cybertruck before your S ages out.

-Crissa

The Model 3 success was possible because they had space in the existing Fremont facility. The CyberTruck will be built at the Tesla plant just starting construction in Texas. I Know Shanghai came online fast, but in the USA, I doubt it will go as easily. I do hope so though. Also, the CyberTruck is not built the same way as all the other models, and will have a tougher time getting through regulations. I may end up just waiting it out, and selling it on the used market if I have to, before it ‘ages out’ as you put it. ?

 

[DES]

Be prepared to be surprised.

-Crissa

it would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Crissa]

The Model 3 success was possible because ...

Tesla had to gut that factory and even built production lines out into the parking lot to lay them out properly. This time they're not stuck with a legacy facility and know just what they want to do,

I think you're best off waiting, clearly ^-^
Even if there's a massive delay, you're an existing customer, so you'll get preference.

-Crissa

 

[DES]

Tesla had to gut that factory and even built production lines out into the parking lot to lay them out properly. This time they're not stuck with a legacy facility and know just what they want to do,

I think you're best off waiting, clearly ^-^
Even if there's a massive delay, you're an existing customer, so you'll get preference.

-Crissa

I don’t know about preference. ?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I have tesla Model S with the full limited warranty that expires on 10/17/2022. I will hit the year limit before the miles, as the S isn’t my only vehicle. I am a triple-motor CyberTruck reservation holder. I ordered the CyberTruck on 12/03/2019, so I’m not at the top of the list. My issue is I don’t want to keep my Model S past 10/17/2022, as I don’t want it past the full limited warranty. Is there any chance the CyberTruck will be delivered by 10/17/2022? I don’t see that as real likely. I’m thinking maybe I’d get a new Model Y, until the CyberTruck is delivered. My thought is to get the Model Y in the next few months. I don’t want to wait until the end of my Model S warranty, and then the CyberTruck isn’t delivering, and then buy another Tesla, as it would not allow me enough time to own it long enough to get value from it. So, do you guys think the trade my Model S now and own the Y for a few years, and trade it on the CyberTruck when it comes out is a decent plan?

Est Position: 323,088
Est Position for Trim: 107,053
Est Delivery Month: 12/22/2022

Note: I don’t have any desire to debate the warranty topic, (full limited, vs battery & power train), so please respect that.

It is unclear whether your truck will be delivered in that time. What is clear is that you can afford the Y so that is the safe bet.

 

[Owner13669]

It is unclear whether your truck will be delivered in that time. What is clear is that you can afford the Y so that is the safe bet.

The safe bet is to keep the model S. The payment on a Y will be a lot of money.

 

[DES]

The safe bet is to keep the model S. The payment on a Y will be a lot of money.

The Y payment will be less than the S is.

 

[Owner13669]

I assumed it was paid for. Obviously, I shouldn’t have.

 

[DES]

I assumed it was paid for. Obviously, I shouldn’t have.

Almost: 4 payments left. But yeah, I could safe a lot not having payments for nearly 2 years, while it’s still under the full limited warranty. I fear just a little that I will loose value that my S has now if I let it get 2 more years old before trading or selling it.

 

[Crissa]

Well, how much have other Model S that are no longer under warranty depreciated?

It looks like about $15k.

So, would you spend more on the Y in two years than that? It's really unlikely that the Y will not depreciate at all between now and then, with the new production line coming out.

-Crissa