What percentage of pre-orders will actually buy?

[Dids]

I think lots of people will back out., but lots of people would want to take their place. If I were savi or could spell savie? I would set up a secondary market. People with a decent reservation number could sell to others.... or with out a transfer, people could go ahead with their purchase and immediately sell to a prearranged buyer. Both with a premium or fee.

Y oh Y did you use an I?

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[Tinker71]

Y oh Y did you use an I?

dang it I thought I tried that.

 

[Mini2nut]

60% will follow through with purchasing.

Tesla will have nothing to be concerned about. I believe the majority of sales will take place after CT’s are seen roaming the streets in 2022 and the polarizing styling grows on people.

 

[Sirfun]

I will be shocked if the waiting list for Cybertrucks gets under 2 months wait, before Tesla sells 2 million Cybertrucks.
When these beasts start roaming the streets and blowing peoples doors off from stop lights, the public is going to bombard Tesla show rooms and want test drives. After a test drive, they'll be hooked.
The numbers on the waiting list will continue to go up, for a long time before it goes down.

 

[T3slaDad]

Amen to that! By the time the 1mil+ reservation holders that are estimated today are fulfilled and re-filled from those backing out, the CT will already be over a year into production! And with that, they might open to the public like they did with M3 before all the reservations are fulfilled, but buyers have to wait months and not weeks for their vehicle.

Also, keep in mind that with 1m+ preorders estimated in just 1 year of announcement, there's a likely chance it'll hit 1.6+mil preorders by the time CT rolls off the lines in (hopeful) Q3! And for every personal consumer that doesn't want a CT, there will happily be a contractor or commercial use buyer taking their place because of the sheer utility of this amazing truck!

 

[TI4Dan]

I think the fall out is less then 20% for to many reason I won't be able to guess, but I know Tesla can't build enough Cybertrucks to satisfy the demand. I also have a thought the folks who cancel their order will get back in line when CT rolls out, it will rekindle the excitement they first had plus they realize what a truck and should never passed on the opportunity. I don't know the percentage of folks who ordered different models not knowing what they actually want but I very sure that you will not see a left over Cybertruck on the lot. It will take years to fill the demand in the US and abroad.

 

[ajdelange]

Rivian has just announced that while their trucks will start being delivered in the summer of next year it will only be the 300 mile version. The 400 mile won't be available until early 2022. There are bound to be quite a few who will say "Hell, if I have to wait that long I'll just wait another couple of months and get the 500 mile CT." That's bound to come down favorably for Tesla.

 

[Frankenblob]

So we are all looking at our place in line with our RN numbers. But really what % of people are going to actually buy it to you think?

So we are all looking at our place in line with our RN numbers. But really what % of people are going to actually buy it to you think?

If the released version is a degrade compared to the prototype then, including yours truly, 60+% will leave!

 

[Dids]

If the released version is a degrade compared to the prototype then, including yours truly, 60+% will leave!

And go where?
So if production CT is closer in specs to Rivian or looks more like a standard pickup you will leave and buy a standard looking pickup for more money with same specs?

 

[Tinker71]

I ponder this question a lot. As a holder of a RN with dual AWD model unit number 219576 with an ETD of 11/25/23 placed July 2020. I sure hope many people in front of me bow out.
1.) There will be a ton of quality competition out in 2022. (25% cancellation)
2.) Who knows what financial condition each of us will be in. I think a ton of people put down $100 with no idea how they would afford a $80,000 truck. I think people currently in a 5-8 year term on a $70k truck are going to be sadly disappointed in the resale/trade in value of their current rig in 2022 which will prevent them from making their purchase. (20% cancellation)
3.) Lots of people will chicken out at the design. That being said people who bought it for the novel look won't think it is novel when there are 100,000 of these out on the road. (10% cancellation)
4.) I have seen post that up to 25% of reservations were out of country. Maybe non spec countries. (5% cancellation)
5.) Many people have duplicate reservations, being not sure what model they really want. (3% cancellation)
6.) The robo taxi thing with multiple orders for a fleet is intriguing. If FSD isn't perfect at the time of pulling the trigger all of them may go away. (5% cancellation)
7.) I would be a little leery about owning a model coming of the line in the first 3 months. Many of these guys may chicken out and hold out for a proven model. (2% cancellation)

This all being said I think the conversion rate will only be 30% I fully expect mine first half 2022.
Personally I don't want notoriety. I am a pure function over fashion person. The corrosion resistance, no hold bared aerodynamics, the fact that there will be millions of these things out there will parts and lots of options for accessories and service available for 20 plus years. That is is why I will pull the trigger.

 

[97trophy]

If the released version is a degrade compared to the prototype then, including yours truly, 60+% will leave!

Judging from what I have seen from Sandy Munro the 'released version' is going to be a significant upgrade.

No predictions but those new batteries and their cooling upgrades are going to extend the range.

We live in a BS world but Elon's usual style is to under promise (obviously, engineering things is very hard and sometimes we feel otherwise).

Not worried about the conversion rate at all. The CT has true utility at a good price (TCO), and the market is huge.

 

[T3slaDad]

I heard the updated version coming out in a few weeks will have 180HP, get 15mpg, and look like a normal truck.

Cancel your reservations now!!!?

Oh, people don't want a normal truck? Okay, I guess you can keep your reservations...

On a serious note, I like the idea mentioned earlier about millions of CT's = readily available parts in 20+ years! I totally forgot about that point.

 

[FutureBoy]

On a serious note, I like the idea mentioned earlier about millions of CT's = readily available parts in 20+ years! I totally forgot about that point.

For normal vehicles I would agree with your equation. But the CT has a possible separate track. At battery day Tesla was talking about getting most of their lithium for batteries from recycled vehicles in the relatively near future. Under that scenario, I can imagine most of the vehicle getting recycled instead of being available for parts.

 

[Tinker71]

I ponder this question a lot. As a holder of a RN with dual AWD model unit number 219576 with an ETD of 11/25/23 placed July 2020. I sure hope many people in front of me bow out.
1.) There will be a ton of quality competition out in 2022. (25% cancellation)
2.) Who knows what financial condition each of us will be in. I think a ton of people put down $100 with no idea how they would afford a $80,000 truck. I think people currently in a 5-8 year term on a $70k truck are going to be sadly disappointed in the resale/trade in value of their current rig in 2022 which will prevent them from making their purchase. (20% cancellation)
3.) Lots of people will chicken out at the design. That being said people who bought it for the novel look won't think it is novel when there are 100,000 of these out on the road. (10% cancellation)
4.) I have seen post that up to 25% of reservations were out of country. Maybe non spec countries. (5% cancellation)
5.) Many people have duplicate reservations, being not sure what model they really want. (3% cancellation)
6.) The robo taxi thing with multiple orders for a fleet is intriguing. If FSD isn't perfect at the time of pulling the trigger all of them may go away. (5% cancellation)
7.) I would be a little leery about owning a model coming of the line in the first 3 months. Many of these guys may chicken out and hold out for a proven model. (2% cancellation)

This all being said I think the conversion rate will only be 30% I fully expect mine first half 2022.
Personally I don't want notoriety. I am a pure function over fashion person. The corrosion resistance, no hold bared aerodynamics, the fact that there will be millions of these things out there will parts and lots of options for accessories and service available for 20 plus years. That is is why I will pull the trigger.

After watching the Detroit analyst bashing the CT sales projection I am going to double down on my prediction here. I thought the 65000 total market units per year for light duty trucks over $60,000 was a telling although slightly flawed statistic. Granted people may consolidate their vehicles into one, or this is really a luxury SUV, or there is that much pent up demand. It is hard to see a sustained production of 100k vehicles for just Tesla. Many reservation holders will cancel or delay.

 

[firsttruck]

.... there's a likely chance it'll hit 1.6+mil preorders by the time CT rolls off the lines in (hopeful) Q3! And for every personal consumer that doesn't want a CT, there will happily be a contractor or commercial use buyer taking their place because of the sheer utility of this amazing truck!

contractor or commercial use buyers will buy in droves. The cost saving for most will be huge. If your competitor buy a Cybertruck you will have to too or suffer because you will be less profitable.

All ready before Cybertruck starts shipping, many contractor or commercial buyers have calculated the savings.


Cybertruck Building Support with Construction Pros
Survey of midwest-based professional/contractor type pickup truck buyers
Gene Munster
2020 Feb 26
https://loupventures.com/cybertruck-building-support-with-construction-pros/

.....
Something bigger is going on. Stepping back, we left with the feeling that the speed of EV adoption is setting up to trend faster than we anticipated. We entered the conversations expecting to hear clear concerns about EV’s shortcomings. Instead, 10 of the 22 said their next truck will be electric, 4 undecided, and 8 expecting to stay with an internal combination. In other words, two-thirds of construction pros are positive or neutral on EV’s.

Tesla’s product awareness is favorable with 11 of the 22 claiming they were aware that Tesla had announced an electric pick up, and only 4 of 22 could name the truck.

Intent to buy was higher than we expected, with 5 of the 22 intending to purchase a Cybertruck in the next 5 years. While there’s a gap between intending to buy a truck and actually purchasing a $45-$55k vehicle, the intent to buy was higher than we expected.

Pros think Cybertruck is more expensive than it actually will be. We showed a photo of Cybertruck and added that a base model Ford 150 starts at $29k. Next, we asked them to guess Cybertruck’s base model price. The average was $84k, with a median of $80k and a range of $45k-$220k. The actual base model pricing is expected to be $40k (2WD option). The 4WD with full self-driving version is priced at $57k. We expect the average selling price with add-ons will be closer to $55k.
* most thought Cybertruck would cost $80K or more instead of $40K-50K.

Last, we discussed how they would feel driving up to a job site in a Cybertruck (with the photo visible to them) and asked, given its brutalist design, would you be embarrassed to show up to work in this truck. Only 3 of 22 said they would be embarrassed.
** So 87% would not be embarrassed.