5 Yr timeline, EV truck market poll

[lancethibault]

Workhorse cancelled plans for there pickup, which the CEO (Former workhorse employee) of lordstown took and ran with on the agreement they would pay Workhorse a % of each truck sold.

That's exactly why I did not list Workhorse.

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[lancethibault]

Valid point. But if the OP is being that broad there is a lot more than the workhorse C series which needs to be added.

I define a "truck" as something with a bed. Not vans, not SUVs. I tired to capture as many of those, that might be available as possible. I guess I should say, I was also only looking at EVs that would be parked at a house. I'm not polling for EV dump-trucks, or semi-trucks even though they have beds.

If there are other potential consumer EVs with beds out there, add a link to their site here and I'll add them to the poll. Bring on the El Camino EV and Brat!

 

[lqdchkn]

Interesting that 100% of respondents think the CT is for real while only 82% think the Rivian is despite the considerable amount of press that has gone to Rivian's on and off road testing and the fact that they will be asking those with pre orders to make choices on battery, colors, seats... in a month or so. Clearly, in terms of getting vehicles on the road they are at least a year ahead of Tesla.

Why isn't Workhorse on the list?

Where have you been reading?

" Rivian purchased a former Mitsubishi factory in Normal, Illinois, and it’s in the process of retooling it to build the R1T and a technically similar SUV named R1S. Deliveries are tentatively scheduled to begin in November 2020. We say tentatively, because Rivian is a new automaker that has never built a car before, so hiccups aren’t inconceivable. "

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t/#:~:text=Rivian purchased a former Mitsubishi,to begin in November 2020.

Rivian has announced they are delayed from their "Summer 21" timeframe which currently pushes them to about the same time Tesla has stated that CT is to be released.

Given Rivian has demonstrated zero manufacturing capability even if they get trucks rolling off the line at the same time as Cybertruck I would expect that Tesla will have the skill to ramp to production speed faster than Rivian, so to say Rivian is "clearly" a year ahead of Tesla is not exactly accurate.

 

[Crissa]

Well, Rivian has had more working prototypes out for longer. They have a factory, with all the stuff installed in it for their production line. And are making parts now, training production staff.

So yeah, they're ahead of Tesla, even if Tesla moves faster.

-Crissa

 

[lqdchkn]

Well, Rivian has had more working prototypes out for longer. They have a factory, with all the stuff installed in it for their production line. And are making parts now, training production staff.

So yeah, they're ahead of Tesla, even if Tesla moves faster.

-Crissa

Well Tesla had successfully made both the Model S and Model X and ramped them before the Model 3 and the Model 3 ramp was a nightmare for them WITH experience. Prototypes dont mean anything as it relates to production. They are not ahead because that's how you want to perceive it. LOL

 

[Crissa]

Well Tesla ... They are not ahead because that's how you want to perceive it. LOL

So you don't understand the concepts of 'ahead' or 'behind' vs 'velocity'. Okie-dokie. 9-9

Tesla doesn't have a finished factory. The machines and line are not built. They're not teaching their production staff yet. And they have done less world testing of the Cybertruck.

But that's okay, Tesla moves quickly: Their factories go from dirt to production in a year. Their models gain new features and parts faster than any automobile manufacturer today. They may be behind today, but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

-Crissa

 

[ajdelange]

... so to say Rivian is "clearly" a year ahead of Tesla is not exactly accurate.

It's a prediction. It involves the unknown. We should have been seeing the Rivians by now but along came COVID and threw a monkey wrench into the works. Another disaster might come along. Plus Elon is hinting the first production CT's by the end of next year. Predictions are accurate or inaccurate after the events they predict come in. So to call a prediction "accurate" or "in accurate" would be the folly of someone who doesn't understand what those words mean.

In any case, we (the community) expect to see the R1T in June and the R1S in August. Rivian has played it pretty close to the vest while at the same time putting their trucks out there for testing in such events as the recent Rebelle Rally and the Long Way up. The evidence that something is finally happening is starting to roll in. They have just put a Service Center on line which, while it isn't fully revelatory as to what the final configurations will be, does reveal a fair amount of heretofore unknown info.

So if it makes you happy I'll reword to "about a year ahead" but that actually isn't more accurate.

 

[Ehninger1212]

I define a "truck" as something with a bed. Not vans, not SUVs. I tired to capture as many of those, that might be available as possible. I guess I should say, I was also only looking at EVs that would be parked at a house. I'm not polling for EV dump-trucks, or semi-trucks even though they have beds.

If there are other potential consumer EVs with beds out there, add a link to their site here and I'll add them to the poll. Bring on the El Camino EV and Brat!

Yes I agree with you.

 

[lqdchkn]

So you don't understand the concepts of 'ahead' or 'behind' vs 'velocity'. Okie-dokie. 9-9

Tesla doesn't have a finished factory. The machines and line are not built. They're not teaching their production staff yet. And they have done less world testing of the Cybertruck.

But that's okay, Tesla moves quickly: Their factories go from dirt to production in a year. Their models gain new features and parts faster than any automobile manufacturer today. They may be behind today, but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

-Crissa

Tesla doesnt have a finished factory yet? What are Fremont and Shanghai? I dont understand how you can think real world experience is not a better indicator of capability than a theoretical plan??

 

[Crissa]

Tesla doesnt have a finished factory yet? What are Fremont and Shanghai?

... Not Cybertruck production lines?

-Crissa

 

[lqdchkn]

... Not Cybertruck production lines?

-Crissa

Because why? The experience gained in building vehicles doesnt relate? What's your point?

My point is that experience manufacturing IS experience. VS the " other guys" with literally no at scale manufacturing experience??

 

[Crissa]

Because why?

...Because they're not? They don't have the scoring/folding blended welding technology installed?

I do not understand why you want to pretend there is a Cybertruck factory when there is currently not even half a foundation in the Texas clay. Yes, Tesla has expertise, but that's why they be able to come from 'behind' and make it across the finish line next year. But that doesn't mean they're ahead. It means they move faster.

-Crissa

 

[Ehninger1212]

...Because they're not? They don't have the scoring/folding blended welding technology installed?

I do not understand why you want to pretend there is a Cybertruck factory when there is currently not even half a foundation in the Texas clay. Yes, Tesla has expertise, but that's why they be able to come from 'behind' and make it across the finish line next year. But that doesn't mean they're ahead. It means they move faster.

-Crissa

Gotta agree with you here. Even Elon is warning of unforeseen complications. As much as I am pro Tesla, Sh!t happens.

 

[97trophy]

An unusual view but...I think there's a chance VW jumps into the truck market in one form or another.

 

[lancethibault]

Updated the poll to add the Tesla "Wolverine". I know there are a lot of people here hoping this is coming sooner rather then later, but who thinks it will be here by 2025?

Oh...and for those few that voted for the Badger...you still have time to change your vote.